Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) The overwhelming majority of Thursday's pattern was only a series of overlapping legs. They began from the morning's 3670.00 high, which itself had recovered from the open's collapse to 3636.00. The subsequent series of overlapping legs gradually retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the recovery back down to 3649.50.. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Flat-to-lower ranging through midnight bounced off of the 3652.50 bias-down signal. Europe's opens offered the exact opposite sentiment, quickly collapsing to 3632.50. Its consolidation has now broken lower to test 3621.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Without Thursday recovering a prior high following Wednesday intraday drop, nothing suggested the decline was done. Extending the decline to 3623.00-3628.00 remained likely. The target was just probed by a couple of points. Extending lower would next target 3610.00-3613.50. Meanwhile, two potential setups are in-play: Equilibrium and Friday Factors. Equilibrium refers not to the overnight action, but to the price action that launched it. Both of yesterday's bias environment bounces and reactions down each ended as their bias environments lapsed, and each was then reversed. And Thursday's close was essentially unchanged from Wednesday. Yesterday's intraday extremes were each 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} projections of the gap-to-gap measurements. That's equilibrium, and it suggests that today will trend convincingly in opposite directions, 2-3 times, beginning overnight. The equilibrium setup can become moot by gapping open so substantially away from yesterday's range, so we'll monitor for its influence but not rely on it. Especially when Friday Factors tend to make the morning bias signal persist through the noon hour, and can also exacerbate morning trending. Bounces have room up to 3640.00 before even suggesting a bigger intraday recovery underway. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Currently retesting the bias-down target's support. The overnight low's test of 3621.00 had room up to 3640.00 before even threatening to trend up this morning. That was essentially the open, and fluctuating around it down to 3635.00 eventually resolved up to 3651.50. But the bias-down signal was still 1 point higher, and it triggered. That also coincides with the gap-to-gap resistance area, which flat RSIs made hold. The first 15's range was still being overlapped at both 10:00 and 10:30, so the bearish opening thrust wasn't rejected. Reacting down is now testing 3643.00. The next lower likely target is 3628.00. The 3652.50 bias-down signal happens also to be the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retrace. Entering the noon hour above it would suggest that sellers are done today -- and potentially rallying into the weekend.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3648.00 ignal would target 3660.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3628.00 signal would target 3613.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3657.00 3648.00 ...would target 3669.25 3660.25 Bias-down: under 3637.00 3628.00 ...would target 3622.50 3613.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Sellers seem done. PM float possible? This morning's likely path down was to reverse a blip-up back down to 3628.00. The open's blip-up to 3645.00 was reversed a little. Its reaction up to 3651.00 was reversed down to the noon hour's 3624.50 lows.

That makes 3 convincing trending attempts: the overnight collapse, rallying through the open, and now also attacking overnight lows. Yesterday's equilibrium setup is fulfilled. It requires no further trending attempts.

Although another is possible. In fact, now bouncing 20 points off the low is testing the afternoon 3648.00 bias-up signal by 1 point. RSIs are simultaneously overbought. None of which requires extending another tick higher. But still ranging in negative territory precludes marginalizing sellers for the day. Otherwise, bouncing into the afternoon bias environment only inhibits counter-trend sponsorship on Friday afternoons.

The latest bounce also makes possible one more setup -- the Friday PM float. Exiting the bias environment back above a prior high could easily gravitate higher into the close. It's not required, but I don't recommend trying to fade it.

Thursday's equilibrium had made 2-3 convincing trending attempts likely Friday. That included the overnight 56-point collapse that probed its 3623.00-3628.00 target by 2 points. Rally 30 points through the open, retrace 27 points, then rally 33 points into the close -- all while in negative territory, with RSIs diverging into each turn. No unfinished business was left outstanding. A bullish Friday PM drift setup avoided triggering which kept optimism restrained. And the afternoon's recovery held its test of Thursday's higher prior lows. So, the pattern is positioned at levels and structures whose recovery coming out of the weekend would be bullish. Wednesday's highs would be retested soon, on the way to new highs. Not eagerly exploiting the position's bullish potential would at least attack Friday's lows, and possibly much more. I'll describe paths, levels, and their likely behaviors at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3666.00 signal would target 3677.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3646.50 signal would target 3635.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3672.00 3663.00 ...would target 3683.00 3674.00 Bias-down: under 3655.50 3646.50 ...would target 3644.50 3635.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE