Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday night's immediate resumption of the rally from 3226.00 that had stalled since Sunday night's temporary surge up to 3234.00. Thursday's session neutralized a growing list of "unfinished business" that had been growing since last week. An Ascending Triangle that had been trying to form finally retraced just 3 ticks too deeply to qualify. But I'm now attributing that to excessive holiday noise, because the pattern triggered anyway. Thursday's last half-hour surged through the morning's 3238.00 high on the way to attack 3245.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The pattern of a low-volume rally has only persisted. Thursday's late surge reacted down only 3 points down to 3241.50 into the Globex open before resuming the rally up to 3250.00. Ranging sideways there into Europe's opens broke higher temporarily, but its retracement resolved higher to attack 3254.00. The relentless overnight trending includes plenty of complexity to qualify as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday's late surge isn't optimal as a breakout from the Mon-Tue multi-session range, since Tuesday was an early close, but we'll still track a potential confirmation today. Meanwhile, yesterday's later surge seems to be triggering the UP/DOWN-CRASH setup that was in its 11th session. Being the product of both extreme sentiment and disruption, there is no minimum or likely objective, only an array of calculable resistance levels to monitor for behavioral clues -- the first are at 3274.50 and 3295.00. Meanwhile, Friday's indicated open is likely to create a new attraction at its gap above all prior highs, if ever reversed back down into Thursday's range or lower. The Gap-to-Gap retracement (currently estimated to be 3248.00-3249.00) could delay that reckoning for higher highs. Regardless of this recent aggression seeming to be an UP-CRASH, it will be vulnerable to snapping back into a DOWN-CRASH before today's close. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3250.50 would be likely to trigger the 3247.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting he open under 3243.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

And nearly touched the bias-down signal. All after having tested the 3253.25 bias-up target overnight by 3 ticks. And hovering there for several hours. But a pre-open dip was already testing 3249.00 as support, and post-open action collapsed to 3238.00. That's within 2 ticks of the 3237.50 bias-down signal. Its support was strong enough already to produce a bounce attacking 3244.00. So, this is a no-bias environment. Having held a test of the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the bias-down signal is in-play. Having come within 3 ticks of the bias-down signal, it won't become "unfinished business" if left outstanding. Meanwhile, the bounce isn't yet extending higher. An actual test of the 3237.50 bias-down signal may yet develop. Probing under it this morning would "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced. Regardless, reversing down more substantially remains possible if the post-open drop isn't largely recovered. through the close. This is the last chance for proving whether the overnight rally was the UP-crash developing, or the rubber band's last stretch before the DOWN-crash snaps back.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3247.00 3249.50 ...would target 3252.50 3255.00 Bias-down: under 3241.00 3243.75 ...would target 3234.75 3237.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Did the recovery attempt fail? The post-open collapsed down to 3238.00 ultimately reacted up to 3247.50, while ranging narrowly for an hour as the bias environment began lapsing. By noon the trend had turned down, but so far only to retrace 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the earlier bounce. This afternoon's 3243.75 bias-down signal triggered after entering a grace period. Fresh lows attacking 3241.00 have offset the signal's lateness. The 3237.50 bias-down target is in-play. Back above 3244.50 after the bias environment starts lapsing at 2:30 would suggest today's reaction down is done. Back above 3246.50 would signal the rally resuming. Meanwhile, resuming the decline should extend back into yesterday's range, and aggressively with help from Friday Factors, if the DOWN-CRASH is playing out.

Thursday's late surge and its overnight extension appeared in the UP/DOWN-CRASH setup's 10th-11th day. This was unlikely to fizzle out like the setup's usual resolution. But only Friday's close could determine whether the surge and extension were the UP-CRASH exploding higher, or if they were the DOWN-CRASH's final rubber band stretch before snapping back down? It was neither, or both, until Friday's close. That point was underscored when Friday's open collapsed. The 3254.00 overnight high was retraced back down to within 5 points of the rally's 3233.25 origin. And that was only Friday's first half-hour. Plenty of time remaining to recover by the close, or not, which would determine whether the rally's sponsorship or the collapse's sponsorship was in control. The balance of the morning bounced only to 3247.50, but its reaction only drifted lower into the afternoon. One last gasp ended when the final hour collapsed to fresh lows at 3235.50. The late collapse created three separate bearish influences, by rejecting a probe of positive territory, finishing at the intraday range's lower-end, and twice testing the upper-end of Thursday's range -- its "lower prior highs" -- where once is usually the most allowed. The tie-breaker is the UP/DOWN-CRASH setup, seemingly triggered at Friday's close. But will the weekend step in to help the UP/DOWN-CRASH setup fizzle out again? Buyers gained no traction Friday afternoon, so rallying Monday morning all but requires gapping up above Friday afternoon's 3245.50 highs. This could also form a "session-long rally" setup, which we'd anticipate being very aggressive. Otherwise, any early weakness Monday would be credible for extending down intraday. And already twice testing Thursday's "lower prior highs" as support, any early weakness would be likely to open under Thursday afternoon's 3233.00 last relative lows. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3244.00 3245.50 ...would target 3250.50 3252.00 Bias-down: under 3230.50 3232.00 ...would target 3224.50 3226.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.