Real Time Day Trading Signals - 01-14-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK <<==click here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping up Wednesday remained aloft through the open, not inverting the overnight rally. That didn't prevent reversing down just minutes later. The reversal extended down relentlessly and substantially, turning a test of 1946.50 into a plunge to 1878.00. That's new lows, which probed under Monday's 1892.50 prior low, which had stopped short of its 1881.00 target. Actively bearish WedEX triggered. Overnight action's new info... China's renewed weakness triggered a brief dip to new lows at 1874.50. it was recovered as quickly as it had developed, and continued improving. Europe's opens were greeted optimistically attacking 1898.00. That was reversed back down to down to within 1 tick of 1874.50, before bouncing back to 1891.00.. If, then... There's nothing predictive about ranging choppily overnight without extending the decline. Ranging choppily intraday wouldn't be predictive, either. The pattern remains vulnerable to extending down sharply, with the wild card of last-minute expiration jockeying. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1885.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1880.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1993.50 would be likely to trigger the 1891.75 bias-up signal.

Wide overnight range dwarfed by the first hour. Ultimately, the pre-open recovery opened back at the 1891.75 bias-up signal. It had been probed temporarily overnight, and the interim dip had tested the 1875.00 bias-down target. The overnight low was retested. The first half-hour plunged to fresh lows at 1871.00. Probing under just 1881.00 during late-afternoon would have found an air pocket. But this was early enough to attract counter-trend sponsorship. At least, the 20-point plunge was deep enough to have satisfied its sponsorship. The 1880.25 bias-down signal was recovered in time to invoke the grace period. During that time, the 1891.75 bias-up signal was exceeded. Then the 1899.25 bias-up target was exceeded. And the potential for testing "higher prior lows" around 1910.00 has been fulfilled... to within 3 ticks of 1912.00. Overbought RSIs require the high's retest, presumably to actually touch 1912.00, possibly probing it by 1 point. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest, too -- a great example why this is not a timing tool. But until fresh post-open highs were to print, the decline is unlikely to resume today.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1920.50 1913.25 ...would target  1928.25  1921.00 Bias-down: under  1902.75  1895.50 ...would target 1895.25  1888.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Thursday's stunning reversal had met a corrective bounce target in the 1910.00 area. Reacting down from 1913.25 to 1904.75 was recovered in time to trigger bias-up targeting 1921.00 -- it was extended higher to test 1927.25. Then it was all reversed. The cash session's last half-hour dropped to 1911.00. That has drifted lower into the night, now probing under 1904.75 by more than 2 points. That's trying to contradict that yesterday's recovery gained traction for its effort. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour's high, and the final hour was entered even higher. Friday morning should reward them by trending higher. Traction, or not, this is expiration. Traction can be negated by gapping down under a prior relevant low -- and not immediately rejecting the gap down. That potential to reverse down can't be dismissed despite Thursday's recovery.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1928.25 1921.00 ...would target  1934.25  1927.00 Bias-down: under  1914.25 1907.00 ...would target 1907.00  1899.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.