Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Exiting Tuesday morning''s bias environment back within the open''s 2021.50-2029.75 range had suggested the morning''s probe under Sunday night''s low down to 2013.25 was absorbed. Exiting the noon hour above the open''s range had suggested the recovery was gaining traction. Despite having extended to 2037.00, closing action dropped to within 2 ticks of the opening range''s 2021.50 lower end. The cash session closed at 2023.00.

Overnight action''s new info...
Tuesday''s late drop began recovering into the futures close up to 2031.25, and out of it up to a fresh high at 2039.00. Despite extending sharply higher well before midnight to 2046.50, a 12-point slide to 2028.50 has erased yesterday''s overnight gains to test the upper-end of yesterday''s 2021.50-2029.75 opening range. Another rally effort is nnow back up to 2038.00.

If, then...
Yesterday''s post-close Market Wrap identified 2041.00 as signaling a bullish session today. That probably seemed a little silly, even while yesterday''s futures close was extending 8 points above the 2023.00 cash session close. The preferable bullish open above 2044.00 must have seemed even further-fetched. Well, the more things change, the more they remain the same: Both levels looked tame when they were being probed by midnight, but yesterday''s 2031.25 has been retraced -- and then some, almost 3 points lower. Regardless, the cash session close is still substantially lower, and it is more relevant than the futures close. So long as that holds, at least a morning rally is likely before anxiousness can paralyze price action ahead of this afternoon''s FOMC news.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2032.25 would become less likely to trigger the 2030.50 bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2041.00 would be likely to exceed the 2037.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Back to square none.

The overnight rally to 2046.50 had been retraced to 2028.50 well before the open. Its bounce to 2040.00 had plenty of opportunity to extend higher through the open.

It didn''t

The 2037.25 opening print is also this morning''s bias-up target. A blip-up probed it by 1 point before plunging back down to the 2030.50 bias-up signal. Sideways ranging up to 2036.00 was rejected back down to 2030.50, which was still being overlapped at both 10:15 and 10:30 to avoid triggering bias-up OR no-bias.

Having tested both bias-up parameters, triggering no-bias would have put into-play tests of both bias-down parameters. Already plunging down to 2018.50 suggests the 2017.00 bias-down target will be met, too, anyway.

The rejection of last night''s rally is astonishing. I''m still viewing interim weakness as being defensive posturing ahead of this afternoon''s FOMC statement. But that will depend upon greeting the news from above a relevant resistance -- which couldn''t be further from this market''s mind right now.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2033.50
2027.50
...would target 2038.25
2032.25
Bias-down: under 2025.75
2019.75
...would target 2019.00
2013.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday''s gap down only ranged narrowly sideways. Tuesday''s breakout wasn''t confirmed. That''s not necessarily bearish, whether that opens the door to neutralizing unfinished business below, or to another rally attempt first.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping overnight back under 1287.00 needed to be rejected without delay Wednesday to confirm a retest of the highs is next. The balance of the session consolidated at or under 1287.00. so delaying a recovery past Thursday''s open would start being considered as bearish.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday''s inside day didn''t extend Tuesday''s dip, keeping alive potential for retesting prior highs.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 149-14 support continued holding, including in between pre-open and post-open bounces back above 150-00 -- first by a little, and then by a lot in reaction to the FOMC news. The 151-08 high''s retest is likely, and could be probed up to 151-28, so long as 149-24 now holds as support

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still not recovering above 46.25, Wednesday''s probe of fresh lows attacking 44.00 presents another breakout opportunity that would be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Thursday.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday''s gap up was as unsuccessful as previous gaps up from this range, once again being required to fill the gap back to Monday''s close. And once again, having filled the gap, a rally through 2.86 and 2.98 would launch a new upleg.

If not for outstanding upside attractions... then how much lower might the market be already?

Pattern points... (Setups and technicals)
Friday''s "unfinished business above" at 2061.50 is not an urban legend, but it may as well be. It wasn''t enough of a reason to avoid that afternoon''s sell-off, or Monday''s.

Tuesday night''s rally through 2044.00 had plenty of room to be retraced without momentum reversing down, and to still be able to resume the overnight rally intraday. And yet, the open took advantage of that room, and not politely.

There are many reasons why Wednesday''s decline was avoidable -- those are essentially the oldest and newest. Yet, the decline kept declining, and declining. Getting to 1997.25 -- and then 3 points lower reacted to 3 points higher -- extending down lower suggests that there is no sponsorship for a recovery.

What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities)
If that sounds scary, it should. Contrarians might be interested in knife-catching this, but I would want to see how a test of 1981.00 behaves first. Gapping up Thursday back above might be a start at rejecting the decline, even if only to retrace back to where the FOMC statement was made at 2022.00. 

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2009.25
2003.25
...would target 2017.00
2011.00
Bias-down: under 1996.75
1990.75
...would target 1990.00
1984.00
Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.