DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A The open hinted at some new volatility, separate from the pre-open Employment Situation reaction. A 10-point pullback through the open down to 2699.00 reacted up to eventually trigger late bias-up. Probing fresh highs up to 2716.00 between 10:15-10:30 adds reliability to a late signal. But price action since then has developed mostly back under yesterday's 2709.00 high.Day Trading Pre-Open Plan - 6:41 AM
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Stock Market Opening Thoughts - 10:45 AM
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That better enabled a knee-jerk reaction up to 2709.25. All of which was still within the overnight range.
The reaction's optimistic surge was also wrung out by dipping into and out of the open down through the first half-hour to 2699.00. Its reaction surged up to the 2711.00 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period.
Extending higher into 10:30 touched 2716.00, which easily triggered late bias-up. Extending higher post-10:15 also often improves the reliability of a late signal. It doesn't prevent reacting down, such as now dipping back down to the 2711.00 bias-up signal.
The 2719.50 bias-up target is in-play. The lateness in finally breaking out has left behind a lot of congestion that will try attracting price back down, unless Friday Factors enable the morning's trend to drift higher.
Tonight's Day Trading Plan - 11:59 AM
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Trade Signals - Market Open Update - 1:46 PM
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Session Wrap - 4:32 PM
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Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Recovered dips suggesting higher rewards.
Optimism had been wrung from the market by fresh overnight lows down to 2696.25 ahead of the Employment Situation report.
FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2716.25
2715.00
...would target
2722.75
2721.50
Bias-down: under
2706.25
2705.00
...would target
2697.75
2696.50
Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL
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BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Yesterday's range is sticking.
I voiced one concern before the open for today's session: that the pre-open volatility was deceptive, still being contained within yesterday afternoon's range. On Fridays, not already trending through the open, or at least during the morning, can be very difficult to trend again before the weekend.
Friday's open was preceded by the monthly Employment Situation report. Its reaction had surged 12 points back up to Thursday's 2709.00 high. The volatility was deceptive, itself preceded by a relatively narrow overnight range. Even that was contained within Thursday afternoon's range. So, trending beyond the range wasn't likely, especially if not done early.
If we can't have trending, then at least we want to know it's unlikely. Still, we gave trending one opportunity, which the first hour tried by probing fresh highs up to 2716.00. The bias-up signal even triggered -- late, but the 10:30 grace period contained fresh highs to confirm. Although that makes the 2719.50 bias-up target more reliable, the balance of the Friday instead returned back into the earlier range.
We knew with greater certainty that trending intraday wasn't likely. Nevertheless, the morning's reaction down was recovered enough at the bias environment exit for the unmet bias-up target to become "unfinished business." And the second consecutive close above 2701.00 confirms the rally's next higher objective at 2756.00 is in-play. None of which prevents an interim detour with room down to 2656.00-2666.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
PLEASE JOIN US AT 9:30 AM ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.
MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2711.50
2710.25
...would target
2719.25
2718.00
Bias-down: under
2700.00
2698.75
...would target
2692.50
2691.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL
.
BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.