Day Trading Pre-Open Plan - 6:41 AM

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's open had reversed down from probing Wednesday's 2690.00 high to probe 5-6 points under the 2681.75 earlier Globex low. The reversal formed a potentially bearish Globex-flip setup, but it never confirmed under Wednesday's 2674.25 last relative low. . The reversal was delayed so long it had developed a Too-late to break setup that offered an opportunity to recover. The recovery opportunity was exploited by a morning-long rally up to 2708.00, meeting the rally's next higher target at 2701.00. was met. Perhaps inhibited ahead of the post-close AMZN earnings and anxiousness ahead of Friday's pre-open Employment Situation report, the balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower down to 2693.00. Late comments regarding China trade negotiations triggered a surge attacking 2708.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... Sympathy with AMZN's reaction to its warning was overcome by more China trade headlines that pushed price up to attack 2712.00 until the Globex open. Gapping back down to 2708.00 ranged sideways, nearly recovering while also eking out a deeper pullback to 2701.00. A relatively narrow 2701.00-2708.00 range has since contained price action, perhaps paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of this morning's Eployment Situation report. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday's late surge was early enough to have recovered 2701.00 before coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Closing above 2701.00 puts into play the next higher objective at 2756.00. Despite the catalyst for its recovery being a headline, 2701.00 doesn't seem to be at risk of an opening rejection. Nevertheless, a second consecutive confirming close today is vital to maintaining the upside momentum. Otherwise, today could be devoted to only backing-and-filling, without reversing the trend back down, which would have room to 2656.00-2666.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered before an Employment Situation report.

Stock Market Opening Thoughts - 10:45 AM

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Recovered dips suggesting higher rewards. Optimism had been wrung from the market by fresh overnight lows down to 2696.25 ahead of the Employment Situation report. That better enabled a knee-jerk reaction up to 2709.25. All of which was still within the overnight range. The reaction's optimistic surge was also wrung out by dipping into and out of the open down through the first half-hour to 2699.00. Its reaction surged up to the 2711.00 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. Extending higher into 10:30 touched 2716.00, which easily triggered late bias-up. Extending higher post-10:15 also often improves the reliability of a late signal. It doesn't prevent reacting down, such as now dipping back down to the 2711.00 bias-up signal. The 2719.50 bias-up target is in-play. The lateness in finally breaking out has left behind a lot of congestion that will try attracting price back down, unless Friday Factors enable the morning's trend to drift higher.

Tonight's Day Trading Plan - 11:59 AM

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FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2716.25 2715.00 ...would target 2722.75 2721.50 Bias-down: under 2706.25 2705.00 ...would target 2697.75 2696.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Trade Signals - Market Open Update - 1:46 PM

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Yesterday's range is sticking. I voiced one concern before the open for today's session: that the pre-open volatility was deceptive, still being contained within yesterday afternoon's range. On Fridays, not already trending through the open, or at least during the morning, can be very difficult to trend again before the weekend.

The open hinted at some new volatility, separate from the pre-open Employment Situation reaction. A 10-point pullback through the open down to 2699.00 reacted up to eventually trigger late bias-up. Probing fresh highs up to 2716.00 between 10:15-10:30 adds reliability to a late signal. But price action since then has developed mostly back under yesterday's 2709.00 high.

While buyers haven't exploited the bias-up, sellers haven't retaken control. Exiting the morning's bias environment at or above the morning's 2711.00 bias-up signal helps to maintain its influence. And now this afternoon has triggered noN-bias by still testing its 2705.00 bias-down signal, and not triggering it. Sponsorship isn't making itself apparent, which can be even more limiting on Fridays. Be careful if trading anyway, trending attempts could still develop. But fading trading attempts and limiting the exposure to several points and/or several minutes continues to be preferable.

Session Wrap - 4:32 PM

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Friday's open was preceded by the monthly Employment Situation report. Its reaction had surged 12 points back up to Thursday's 2709.00 high. The volatility was deceptive, itself preceded by a relatively narrow overnight range. Even that was contained within Thursday afternoon's range. So, trending beyond the range wasn't likely, especially if not done early. If we can't have trending, then at least we want to know it's unlikely. Still, we gave trending one opportunity, which the first hour tried by probing fresh highs up to 2716.00. The bias-up signal even triggered -- late, but the 10:30 grace period contained fresh highs to confirm. Although that makes the 2719.50 bias-up target more reliable, the balance of the Friday instead returned back into the earlier range. We knew with greater certainty that trending intraday wasn't likely. Nevertheless, the morning's reaction down was recovered enough at the bias environment exit for the unmet bias-up target to become "unfinished business." And the second consecutive close above 2701.00 confirms the rally's next higher objective at 2756.00 is in-play. None of which prevents an interim detour with room down to 2656.00-2666.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. PLEASE JOIN US AT 9:30 AM ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM

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MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2711.50 2710.25 ...would target 2719.25 2718.00 Bias-down: under 2700.00 2698.75 ...would target 2692.50 2691.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.