VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Stock Forecast - 7:23 AM
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Previously : Relentless firming from the 4136 overnight low extended through Wed's high to 4176 where the open reacted back down to 4153. Surging higher to 4197 was later extended to 4208, where the P.M. bias window collapsed back down into the overnight range to 4157. Surging to the 4187 and 4107 5th stage objectives of a 5-Stage pattern were retraced entirely back down to 4154.
Overnight price points : For all of its selling, overnight is still (barely) within Thu's range. The 4193 cash session close had already collapsed to 4157 as post-close earnings began announcing. The 4176 Globex open then ranged flat-to-lower, breaking back down to the morning's 4153 low after Europe's opens, temporarily as a bounce is now probing the earlier range up to 4168.
Catalysts : Earnings, NFP-PMI-ISM.
Setups/Patterns : Breakout confirmation, Friday Factors.
Their influences : Wed's breakout close was confirmed by Thu's second consecutive higher close to now require at least an eventual third higher close... Friday Factors are a set of behaviors that are likely today as weekend illiquidity arrives.
Premise : So, is it pullback time? Yesterday specifically chose not to form a Gap-and-pause setup that would have pointed down today, but it's still possible. A longstanding 4200 handle was achieved, and the confirmed breakout now allows the rally to detour. Regardless of the Employment Situation report's knee-jerk reaction, we'll be prepared for trending down into the weekend, which I would expect to be obvious at the open if in-play.
Alternative : Not gapping down under yesterday's lows could reflect that optimism remains alive and well, which post-open surging could reinforce and attract more -- filling the gap back to Thu's 4193 cash session close, if not also retesting yesterday's 4208 highs whose RSIs were simultaneously overbought.
Levels : UP: 4212, 4251, 4275... DOWN: 4163, 4136, 4108.
Stock Market Morning Strategy - 10:38 AM
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Previously : Thu's 4193 cash session close had already collapsed to 4157 amid post-close earnings, and ranged choppily sideways to greet Fri's pre-open Payrolls at its upper-end at 4170.
New price points : The headline triggered a drop to 4133. Bouncing through the open reacted down 20 points from 4169, which recovered to the 4184 bias-down signal's resistance where RSIs are diverging negatively.
Catalysts : Earnings, NFP-PMI-ISM.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET... Friday Factors.
Their influences : Renewed bias-down was barely avoided. The 4184 bias-down signal should define the window's upper-end. Probing above it prematurely would require retrace, unless the noon hour were entered above the 4202 bias-up signal... Friday Factors suggest this morning's bias-down will persist through the noon hour.
Triggers/Tactics : The pullback has so far only developed overnight, and not yet intraday. It need not, but it is likelier since Friday's bias-down tends to persist through the noon hour. And its 4184 bias-down signal that was just tested should define the window's upper-end. Reversing down dramatically or substantially isn't necessary, but that is the greater vulnerability.
Alternative : Probing above the 4184 bias-down signal prematurely would require its retrace, but that can be invalidated by entering the noon hour above the 4202 bias-up signal because the bias-down target is already met.
Levels : UP: 4212, 4251, 4275... DOWN: 4163, 4136, 4108.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4187, targeting 4203.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4163, targeting 4148.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 2:03 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
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Previously : Thu's 4193 cash session close had already collapsed to 4157 amid post-close earnings, and ranged choppily sideways into Fri's pre-open Payrolls headline that triggered a drop to 4133. Bouncing through the open reacted down 20 points from 4169, which recovered to the 4184 bias-down signal.
New price points : Fluctuation widely around the bias-down signal through the bias window repeatedly threatened to extend higher but never did. Collapsing through the noon hour triggered bias-down and extended to 4141.
Catalysts : Earnings, NFP-PMI-ISM.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN... Friday Factors, 5-Stage pattern.
Their influences : A compressed stage-2 was nevertheless entered and exited aggressively, but stage-4 never troughed before extending its stage-5 to fresh lows that are met.
Triggers/Tactics : Friday Factors tending to make the morning bias persist through the noon hour was satisfied, but with a vengeance after the morning detoured back up to its bias-down signal limit. Reacting back down is so far only attacking the Payrolls headline reaction. Bounces should continue to fail, with fresh lows likely.
Alternative : Exiting the noon hour back above its 4163 bias-down signal would at least be a start at reversing momentum up, but more importantly indicate that the decline isn't being reinforced.
Levels : UP: 4212, 4251, 4275... DOWN: 4163, 4136, 4108.
Market Performance Signals - 4:32 PM
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WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW
Today's price points : Thu's 4193 cash session close had already collapsed to 4157 amid post-close earnings. A choppy overnight range greeted Fri's pre-open Payrolls at 4170 and the headline triggered a drop to 4133. Bouncing through the bias-down window to 4194 was almost all retraced by collapsing into the afternoon down to 4135.
Catalysts : (Next week) Earnings, sparse low-profile econs.
Setups/Patterns : Confirmed breakout.
Their influences : Wed's breakout from a multi-session range was followed by a second consecutive higher close to confirm at least an eventual third higher close is required.
Premise : Fri's setups were weird, with the bearish Opening thrust's traction and persistent A.M. bias-down only undermining the morning's rally, but not preventing it. Is this more bearish, or less? That depends on whether the detour formed its own bullish or bearish setup -- and the high of Fri's detour filled the gap back to Thu's 4193 cash session close, which neutralizes its attraction. Then the afternoon barely probed the open's 4139 low while stopping optimistically short of the 4133 pre-open low, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Further pullback out of the weekend is likely.
Alternative : Gapping up above Fri's high (45 points) could reject the pullback and resume the rally. Back above 4177 could reinforce the range to consolidate for a little longer.
Levels : UP: 4212, 4251, 4275... DOWN: 4163, 4136, 4108.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Bias Levels - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4155, targeting 4166.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4137, targeting 4125.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.