Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday afternoon's rally from noon's 3355.00 low to 3375.00 had not gained traction, so gapping up Wednesday would signal the rally was extending anyway. The 3381.00 open did extend higher to its 3391.00 target by the bias environment exit. Hovering around the morning's high attacked 3394.00, and its reaction attacked 3385.00 into the 3386.00 new high close. The late dip was only ticks above Thursday's intraday high but back under two overnight highs. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednesday night's opening gap consolidated back up to 3392.00, and an hour later spiked up to 3397.50. No complexity developed before sliding sharply to 3276.50 by midnight. Its reaction greeted Europe's opens back up at 3291.00, which dipped again down to 3380.00. Consolidating there is now struggling to hold. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Now not only no new "unfinished business" above, but failed attempts to produce another two overnight:

Despite the initial probe above yesterday's highs, gapping up isn't currently indicated. And not gaining traction yesterday afternoon made gapping up necessary to rallying this morning.

Also, the overnight spike up doesn't qualify as a "new Globex trend extreme" so its intraday retest isn't required.

Meanwhile, probing fresh highs has officially disqualified yesterday's suspicious Gap-and-go setup, which would have been due the reward of new highs intraday. So, as if yesterday neutralizing all unfinished business wasn't enough of a risk to the rally, today's session is being greeted by two failed attempts to create more. All of which is developing after thorough testing and holding of the rally's 3391.00 objective. And that risk to the rally is being joined by an actual threat: having probed yesterday's high, exiting the open under the 3388.75 earlier Globex low would form a bearish Globex-flip. Recovering the earlier Globex low through the open would be bullish for today. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Bias parameters have been very influential overnight. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3380.75 would be likely to trigger the 3384.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3388.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 3394.25 would be likely to trigger the 3391.00 bias-up signal.

Despite also forming a bearish Globex-flip setup. After probing yesterday's highs overnight, gapping open under the 3388.75 earlier Globex low formed a bearish Globex-flip. This setup forecasts the morning being likely to trend down. Except it's not. The 3380.00 open's surge peaked at the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement 4 points higher, attacking the 3384.00 bias-down signal's resistance. Reacting down almost 6 points was a good start to resuming the overnight weakness. But it was the end. By 10:15 an 11-point rally was testing the 3388.75 earlier Globex low as resistance. It held, so the Globex-flip is not invalidated. But its influence may fail. The 3384.00 bias-down signal was recovered to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 3391.00 bias-up signal. And a dip back to 3384.00 has reacted back up to 3388.75. 3391.00 will become unfinished business if not yet met this morning. Testing it this morning would still be vulnerable to reacting down because of the bearish Globex-flip setup, which will otherwise fail. And there's still requirement to probe any higher.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3368.50 3368.25 ...would target 3378.50 3378.25 Bias-down: under 3346.50 3346.50 ...would target 3336.50 3336.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The bearish Globex-flip comes through. And might come through again. Exiting the open under the 3388.75 earlier Globex low had formed a bearish Globex-flip. Its morning influence seemed to be overcome by triggering no-bias, which put into play a test of this morning's 3391.00 bias-up signal. But the only post-10:15 effort to extend higher was stopped at the pre-10:15 high -- perhaps not coincidentally at 3388.75 -- before collapsing 50 points to 3339.50.

3391.00 does not become "unfinished business," due to exiting the bias window under its 3377.00 bias-down target. Without a post-10:15 fresh high, just exiting the window under its 3384.00 bias-down signal would have sufficed. Either way, whatever upside objective had been put into play by triggering no-bias is now invalidated.

There's no unfinished business below, either. There was Tuesday's 3355.00 low, formed upon entering its noon hour under a prior session's low. Its weak base was likely to be revisited again, and is now neutralized. "Lower prior highs" at 3346.00 had been attacked closely enough by a prior low that the next lower prior high at 3339.00-3341.00 was likelier. That is now thoroughly tested, and influential as its test produced an attack on 3369.00.

Now this afternoon's 3368.25 bias-up signal has held to trigger no-bias. It should define the window's upper-end. Its reaction is testing 3360.00 as support, which is also influential for being the upper-end of the construct at Tuesday's 3355.00 low. Exiting another bias window below it would be bearish, next targeting 3333.00. Back to the Globex-flip. It can be influential again tomorrow morning unless this afternoon were to gain upside traction. Bearish Thursday and Friday morning behavior tends to persist coming out of the weekend, too -- similar to expiration's Friday afternoon's influences dwelling through Monday morning.

Thursday gap down to 3380.00 formed a bearish Globex-flip, holding under the 3388.75 earlier Globex low after probing Wednesday's high overnight. The setup's influence on the morning had failed but for a negative AAPL/coronavirus headline that triggered a 49-point collapse from 3388.75.

The bearish setup probably exacerbated the reaction, which also suggests that an otherwise uninterrupted bounce would have resolved down, too. But the headline is an artificial catalyst that floods the zone with weak hands, crowding out strong-handed sponsorship.

Bouncing out of Thursday morning's bias environment retraced much of the collapse up to 3375.00. Buyers gained no traction for the effort, so extending the recovery Friday morning must begin by gapping up. Extending the rally without gapping up would be likely to fail. Stretching the rubber band for an afternoon snap back down into the weekend may be a more bearish setup than just resuming the decline at Friday's open. Dipping only shallowly Friday morning could still launch an afternoon rally, but not necessarily. Even gapping up to resume the rally would encounter significant resistance up to 3391.00. The rally hasn't yet been rejected, despite chipping away again at the recent range's support. But now it has no "unfinished business" above for a second consecutive session. That's a very unusual set of conditions for this rally, and not the desired position of strength for greeting expiration and the weekend's illiquidity. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3378.25 3378.00 ...would target 3386.00 3385.75 Bias-down: under 3365.00 3365.00 ...would target 3358.25 3358.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.