Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday's hold-short from 3337.00 gapped down Sunday to 3309.00, and Monday to 3233.00. The afternoon's fresh lows came within 1 point of the Jan 31 3213.00 prior low. The afternoon's corrective bounce formed a 5-Stage Turn pattern that fulfilled being retraced entirely to its 3225.00 origin down to 3220.50. Its reaction attacked 3228.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Globex immediately blipped-down to attack the 3213.75 intraday low to within 2 ticks. Blipping back up extended higher on news that a COVID vaccine is ready to be tested. The Atlantic simultaneously published a sober look at vaccine lead times, and both agree "ready" probably means late-April. Nevertheless, the reaction extended to 3259.50. Ranging sideways through midnight had absorbed a couple of dips, but sliding out of Europe's opens extended to 3220.00. Its brief probe of negative territory is now bouncing into positive territory testing 3239.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The larger uptrend's series of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. But the decline has covered a lot of ground so briefly, that it seems premature to have yet absorbed the drop's catalyst. Corrections are more a function of time than of price. Premature recovery attempts can be their own worst enemies when a damaged chart needs time for repair. The current pattern eventually requires lower lows of some sort, brief or protracted, next targeting 3171.00 and 3135.00-3140.00. Another premature rally could test 3288.00 first. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3227.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 3230.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3233.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 3243.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3237.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

In other words, a lot of early buying got rejected, hard. The overnight rally's reversal back into negative territory had bounced again back above both bias-up parameters. The open blipped-up to 3247.25 and immediately reversed down. Not willingly. The first dip to 3221.50 was recovered to consolidated above the 3230.25 bias-up signal. The grace period was invoked. The reaction down soon resumed as sellers got a lot more willing, collapsing through yesterday's lows and the bias-down parameters. Fresh lows just attacked 3185.00, and now its reaction up to 3201.50 is trying to resume the decline. This leg is targeting 3171.00. An overnight low at 3181.00 could hold on a retest, but delaying 3171.00 would only make 3135.00-3140.00 likelier. Still trending down this far past the open makes an afternoon recovery more dependent on an artificial catalyst that triggers a buying spree. Otherwise, even if the decline has ended, an organic recovery would first need a consolidation to launch it.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3209.75 3209.00 ...would target 3221.00 3220.25 Bias-down: under 3188.50 3188.00 ...would target 3181.25 3180.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

While meeting next big target. This morning's 3176.00 low was the first intraday retest of the 3181.00 overnight prior low. No specific influence was required, just something. That something was a bounce into the noon hour testing 3198.00. Nice try. That only resolved down through the noon hour's 3166.00 exit. Which also met the outstanding 3171.00 target. And the first detached bar (printing a fresh low while not overlapping 3171.00) reacted up immediately to test a buy signal. So, nicer try. That only resolved down, too. Even without RSIs returning to oversold conditions, lower lows are attacking 3157.00. Some relevant support at 3155.00 might be challenging, but the 3135.00-3140.00 target is in-play. Afternoon timing windows are not the easiest to try catching a falling knife. Sharp reactions up are possible -- a 9-point bounce is now threatening a buy signal at 3167.50. But the trend likely remains down through the bias environment. And beware of the potential for a capitulative collapse through the last 60-90 minutes.

Monday night's bounces were both rejected. Its first bounce from 3214.00 to 3259.50 was triggered by coronavirus vaccine news. That was retraced back into negative territory at 3220.00. Its second bounce to 3246.00 was a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} correction back to overnight highs. that was retraced through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Sellers were sufficiently refueled and buyers weren't gaining traction. The morning bias environment slid to 3176.00. Its reaction greeted the noon hour at 3198.00 where the afternoon bias environment slid to 3121.50. Another bounce to 3157.50 was retraced to momentarily probe a fresh low at 3117.50. But the decline didn't resume. Despite its earlier squeeze failing, the decline didn't capitulate. Another 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement to 3141.00. closed at 3128.00-3133.50. The last 2 hours fluctuated widely around the decline's 3135.00 target. The pattern's next intraday stage should be steeper than its previous stage, whether a short-squeeze up or capitulating down. Wednesday open is likely to be greeted already sharply higher or lower, and the morning is likely to extend in that direction. At least, initially. A "Wreversal Wednesday" would end the day exactly opposite from its start. Otherwise, especially if the morning were to trend down, not already reversing through the noon hour could see an especially ugly afternoon. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3152.50 3141.00 ...would target 3152.50 3151.00 Bias-down: under 3126.25 3125.50 ...would target 3115.75 3115.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.