Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday night's 55-point range was nevertheless only sideways. And like the intraday, it held tests of 3088.00-3095.00 resistance. Some sort of higher high was likely, but without already probing higher overnight, upside potential to 3188.00-3195.00 was reduced to 3135.00. Reversing down wasn't likely until after the expected Central Bank intervention. The Fed did cut rates soon after the first half-hour had dipped from 3096.00 to 3047.00. Its knee-jerk reaction did test 3135.00 by 2 points. And its resolution did reverse down, to the afternoon bias environment's 2973.00 low. A bounce to 3040.00 finished the day at 2997.00-3001.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The Globex open quickly dipped 20 points down to 2977.00 but only briefly. Trending back up soon turned positive, and the 3040.00 afternoon high was recovered through midnight. But, wait, there's more. A brief shallow dip at Europe's opens was recovered, and the rally extended back into yesterday's noon hour range up to 3061.00 -- where the Fed rate cut was announced. Now a 10-point spike-up moments ago is attacking 3071.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Reversing yesterday's Fed surge had potential to extend by a factor of 2-3 times. Its reaction was a less pessimistic 100{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} swing. To some degree it is optimism that is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective, which can undermine the origins of last night's rally. Simultaneously oversold RSIs at yesterday's lows were neutralized just enough to enable a bounce but otherwise left their retest outstanding, which is also optimism. Resuming the decline back under Tuesday's low would target at least Friday's 2913.50 last-minute buy signal. That's where the recovery began, and there's no bullish reason to revisit it. Rejecting Tuesday's decline by maintaining last night's rally could extend the recovery to 3188.00-3195.00, before beginning to retest last week's lows. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3036.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3018.00 bias-up target though 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3111.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3007.25 bias-up signal.

Opening head-fake traps longs, entrenches shorts. Trending relentlessly overnight must attract intraday sponsorship quickly, or else be vulnerable to correcting, retracing, or reversing it all. Extending higher through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would reflect intraday reinforcements arriving to maintain the rally. Trending down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would reflect counter-trend sponsorship rejecting the overnight rally. The 3059.00 open blipped-up to within 4 points of the 3074.00 overnight high. And then quickly failed. The opening 15 minutes ultimately trended down, probing the pre-open 3043.50 low that was ADP's reaction. It soon extended to test 3031.00. 1-minute RSI diverged positively to enable a low that reacted back to the open's blip-up. All the way back, momentarily. The morning's range has likely been established. Exiting the bias environment beyond either end would be likely to extend in that direction. Presumably the morning will absorb bounces and at least push on the post-open low as suggested by the relentless overnight trending setup. A deeper correction or even complete retracement remain possible, if not likely, unless the bias environment is exited above the open's highs.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3064.00 3061.00 ...would target 3075.00 3072.00 Bias-down: under 3038.00 3035.00 ...would target 3026.00 3023.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

False, or not, breaking higher. Rejecting the relentless overnight rally had at least signaled that sellers were strong-handed this morning. Their productivity wasn't overwhelming. The first hour's retest of the open's 3070.00 high was only corrected down to 3038.00, still 7 points short of the open's 3031.00 low. Buyers were otherwise ineffective... until noon. The balance of the morning had formed a Symmetrical Triangle, and it suddenly broke higher at noon. The setup's minimum structural reward was simply to retest the session highs. Buyers were overwhelmingly productive, extending an additional 21 points up to 3092.00.

This afternoon is a renewed bias-up environment. After this much follow-through, that only requires holding above the bias-up parameters until the bias window begins lapsing. There's meanwhile room back down to 3072.00 and 3061.00.

There's no bearish reason to extend another 2-3 points higher and touch 3094.00-3095.00. That's the 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} counterpart to the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement already done of yesterday's Fed spike. Its minimum structural reward would be to retrace the spike's 3137.00 high. And there's no bearish reason for that, so its retest would essentially put into play 3188.00-3195.00.

Relentless overnight trending up to 3074.00 had reacted down to 3043.50 before greeting the open back up at 3059.00. The open's blip-up to 3070.00 resolved down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, rejecting the relentless overnight trending. Buyers would be marginalized for the balance of the morning, reacting down to 3031.00, and finally resolving up right at noon. The rally's resumption extended up sharply to a last-minute high at 3129.50 for another top one-day gain -- albeit still more than 7 points short of Tuesday morning's Fed spike high. Tuesday's Fed spike reaction had potential to extend down much more substantially. Wednesday's overnight trending rejection had the same potential. The alternative wasn't required to extend the recovery, so further upside gets a benefit of the doubt until disproved. Further upside would next target 3188.00-3195.00. Already retracing 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the Fed spike's reaction at 3094.00-3095.00 had made retesting its 3137.00 peak likely. Stopping short of 3137.00 Wednesday reflects pessimism that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. All of which can be disproved by gapping down deeply enough Thursday. Wednesday afternoon's 3080.00 low formed during its bias environment, and closing action trended up. So, gapping down Thursday to and/or through 3080.00 could form a "session-long decline" setup. The setup wouldn't necessarily result in derailing the recovery so much as detouring it. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3133.00 3131.00 ...would target 3145.00 3143.00 Bias-down: under 3109.00 3107.00 ...would target 3093.00 3091.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.