VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Market Open Predictions - 7:20 AM
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Previously : Globex's gap down to 4042 had soon bounced to 4063. Its retrace to 4043 was recovered entirely pre-open, then extended higher after Mon's open to attack 4082 and the month-old downtrending channel's resistance. Relatively narrow sideways ranging broke lower 61.8% of the way through the noon hour. Trending down relentlessness probed the open's range down to 4048.
Overnight price points : Mon's late bounce to 4056 extended to 4064. Flat-to-lower ranging down to 4054 began recovering entirely back up to 4064 after Europe's opens. Its reaction is now attacking their interim low.
Catalysts : Powell.
Setups/Patterns : Powell Testimony day-1.
Their influences : Whatever the Fed Chair discusses will be compared against stocks and bonds reaction to it, which might be so significant that Powell walks it back on day-2. Meanwhile, the news might be so bullish or bearish that the market extends Tue's reaction overnight assuming an exact replica will develop Wed.
Premise : Without already backing-and-filling overnight, hovering at the lower-end of Mon's range may persist while awaiting the embargo to be lifted on Powell's opening remarks before his testimony. That restrained optimism can be a tell, not necessarily to the initial knee-jerk reaction but to its resolution being up, back to yesterday's 4082 highs and possibly through them to probe 4100.
Alternative : Otherwise, greeting the remarks from under yesterday's 4048 late low near 4033 could react poorly on the way either only to 4022 or deeper to 4003, which would find it difficult to recover from today.
Levels : UP: 4063, 4084-88, 4103... DOWN: 4033, 4003, 3974.
Day Trading Opening Trends - 10:53 AM
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Previously : Mon's late bounce to 4056 extended to 4064. Flat-to-lower ranging down to 4054 began recovering entirely back up to 4064 after Europe's opens. Its reaction began retracing the opening lows.
New price points : Tue's opening range fluctuated optimistically short of actually touching Mon's 4048 low, when its probe down to 4046 was needed to complete a turn. Firming instead only stretched the rubber band to enhance a knee-jerk reaction to Powell's hawkish opening remarks that triggered a 38-point collapse to 4012. Its reaction up to 4040 has now fully retraced the low.
Catalysts : Powell.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN RENEWED... Powell Testimony day-1.
Their influences : Whatever the Fed Chair discusses will be compared against stocks and bonds reaction to it, which might be so significant that Powell walks it back on day-2. Meanwhile, the news might be so bullish or bearish that the market extends Tue's reaction overnight assuming an exact replica will develop Wed.
Triggers/Tactics : Reacting down sharply was the product of post-open optimism, but that didn't trigger it. And as much play that there is, evidenced by the steep reaction, a substantial reversal is possible. But probably not entirely until the afternoon, and if the morning has been spent gradually retracing the morning collapse.
Alternative : Powell's opening remarks were greeted from above 4033 before probing below it, so maintaining the decline depends a lot on no recovering 4033 through a relevant window -- next targeting 4003.
Levels : UP: 4063, 4084-88, 4103... DOWN: 4033, 4003, 3974.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4021, targeting 4036.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3999, targeting 3988.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Mid-Day Market Thoughts - 1:31 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
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Previously : Mon's late bounce to 4056 extended to 4064. Flat-to-lower ranging down to 4054 began recovering entirely back up to 4064 after Europe's opens. Its reaction probed earlier Globex lows, but Tue's opening range fluctuated optimistically short of actually touching Mon's 4048 low. Firming instead stretched the rubber band to enhance a knee-jerk reaction to Powell's hawkish opening remarks that triggered a 38-point collapse to 4012.
New price points : Reacting up to 4040 was quickly retraced to 4012, and now deeper to test 4000.
Catalysts : Powell.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP... 1.
Their influences : Whatever the Fed Chair discussed will be compared against stocks and bonds reaction to it, which might be so significant that Powell walks it back on day-2. Meanwhile, the news might be so bullish or bearish that the market extends Tue's reaction overnight assuming an exact replica will develop Wed.
Triggers/Tactics : A substantial reversal remains possible, but the morning's downtrend is making it difficult without first bottoming. The next lower target at 4003 is met, but having been avoided prematurely earlier, lower lows down to 3996 are likelier -- and that's not required to hold.
Alternative : RSIs continue to diverge positively into lower and lower lows, none of which requires a bottom but instead calls for reinforcements to restart the downtrend. While it could be stretching the rubber band to snap back up, its reversal awaits an actual signal.
Levels : UP: 4063, 4084-88, 4103... DOWN: 4033, 4003, 3974.
Trading Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Mon's late bounce extended to 4064 and ranged mostly sideways through Europe's opens. Already reversing down into Tue's open stopped optimistically short of touching Mon's 4048 low, providing a well-timed warning that imploded on Powell headlines. The final hour entry was testing 3983 and ranged sideways through the close.
Catalysts : Powell II.
Setups/Patterns : Powell Testimony day-2.
Their influences : Was Powell satisfied with stock and bond market reactions to his remarks? He may reinforce them Wed, and that may be widely anticipated, but the market has already discounted a similar message Tue. Maybe he'll try walking back his comments, which would trigger a rally.
Premise : However Powell follows-up Tue's testimony on Wed, the least likely resolution is to extend Tue's collapse more than temporarily. His message was at the extreme of bearish possibilities, and price has already discounted it. Meanwhile, having dropped to the 2+ day rally's 61.8% retrace, intersecting at the 5-week old downtrending channel's support, Tue's drop is poised for a rebound. Rallying Wed morning would be credible for resuming last week's rally.
Alternative : Any perceived walk-back of Powell's very hawkish warning would find the pullback's test of support being a launching board, if not also a base to at least start recovering the drop since Mon's highs. Having remained under pressure through the close, gapping up above Tue afternoon's 4005 high could trigger a session-long rally.
Levels : UP: 4063, 4084-88, 4103... DOWN: 4033, 4003, 3974.
Tomorrow's Market Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4003, targeting 4021.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3984, targeting 3968.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.