VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Stock Market Plan - 7:37 AM
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Previously : Ranging narrowly overnight between 3984-3993 briefly tested 4001 before reversing down to retest oversold RSIs at Tue's 3982 low. Powell's headline triggered a spike down to 3974 that recovered to the 4003 bias-up signal -- twice through the morning. Trending down through the noon hour probed fresh lows down to 3972, and the last half-hour firmed up to 3998.
Overnight price points : Wed's last-minute firming was immediately reversed on the way down to 3985. Bouncing through midnight retraced 61.8% back up to 3993 and began to reverse back down again. A 61.8% retrace of Wed's last downleg at 3979 reacted up again temporarily to 3989.
Catalysts : Job-Cuts & Claims, Fed speaker, 30-year auction, P.M. pre-NFP anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : Relentless Overnight Trending, Rollover.
Their influences : Maintaining the overnight downtrend at the open would enable the first 15 minutes to signal that either reinforcements or countertrend sponsorship -- if either -- is being attracted to influence the morning... We won't be doing this yet, possibly not until Mon, but many will begin rolling forward the ES contract's front month from Mar to Jun. This contributes to starts and stops, not necessarily reversing a trend but causing pauses.
Premise : The overnight pullback to 3979 reacted to multiple Fibonacci extensions/retracements that coincide there, which -- having already responded to them by bouncing more than arbitrarily -- would be bearish if 3979 were retested. Unless its retest were isolated, then the downleg that began Mon afternoon would next target 3968 and potentially 3954.
Alternative : Isolating 3979's retest by recovering it and preferably also a relevant resistance through the open would start to signal a bigger bounce, at least for yesterday's range to persist and not necessarily to launch a recovery.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4045, 4068... DOWN: 3960, 3929, 3974.
Stock Market Opening Trends - 11:11 AM
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Previously : Wed's last-minute firming was immediately reversed on the way down to 3985. Bouncing through midnight retraced 61.8% back up to 3993 and began to reverse back down again. A 61.8% retrace of Wed's last downleg at 3979 reacted up again temporarily to 3989.
New price points : Another dip attacking 3979 reacted up much, much more substantially to 4008. A 10-point reaction into the open's 4008 low recovered substantially higher to 4020. Reacting down to the open's low bounced back only to the 4016 bias-up target before returning again to the open's low.
Catalysts : Job-Cuts & Claims, Fed speaker, 30-year auction, P.M. pre-NFP anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-UP, TARGET MET... Rollover.
Their influences : We won't be doing this yet, possibly not until Mon, but many will begin rolling forward the ES contract's front month from Mar to Jun. This contributes to starts and stops, not necessarily reversing a trend but causing pauses.
Triggers/Tactics : Thoroughly testing this morning's 4016 bias-up target both chips away at its resistance, while also desperately needing a break higher to trap weak-handed distribution there. Otherwise, those aren't weak-handed sellers, and having satisfied buying pressure without putting higher targets into play, at least a deeper pullback comes into play. And since this morning's high coincides at the 50% retrace of the month-old downtrending channel, retesting its support would very likely break sharply lower.
Alternative : Rallying out of the noon hour, preferably above 4008, would be constructive to retesting the morning's highs and to resuming the recovery.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4045, 4068... DOWN: 3960, 3929, 3974.
Tonight's Day Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4006, targeting 4018.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3988, targeting 3974.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Day Trading Mid-Day Update - 1:59 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Wed's last-minute firming was immediately reversed on the way down through Europe's opens to 3979. Multiple coinciding Fibonacci schemes there enabled and enhanced a steep reaction up through Thu's open to 4020. The bias-up window ranged flat-to-lower.
New price points : Exiting the bias window at the open's 3998 low extended sharply lower through the noon hour and into the afternoon .
Catalysts : Job-Cuts & Claims, Fed speaker, 30-year auction, P.M. pre-NFP anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN... Rollover.
Their influences : Today's fresh multi-session lows preclude my rules from rolling the ES contract's front month forward from Mar to Jun until Mon.
Triggers/Tactics : Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report was less likely to paralyze price action which had suddenly ballooned into the open. Resolving down was likelier, and that has persisted down to all nearby lower attractions -- the channel's downtrending support at 3974, its parallel support from yesterday's low at 3966, and calculable supports at 3968 and 3960. And suddenly 3954 is also met. Back above 3965 could test 3980.
Alternative : Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are oversold at 3952 and will require a retest if a bounce were to develop soon. But any bounce would be doomed to failure until a low develops without simultaneously oversold RSIs.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4045, 4068... DOWN: 3960, 3929, 3974.
Closing Thoughts - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Wed's last-minute firming was immediately reversed on the way down through Europe's opens to 3979. Multiple coinciding Fibonacci schemes there enabled and enhanced a steep reaction up through Thu's open to 4020. But the bias-up window ranged flat-to-lower and exiting back down at the open's 3998 low collapsed. Trending down sharply to 3910 bounced briefly to 3935 resistance.
Catalysts : Job-Cuts & Claims, Fed speaker, 30-year auction, P.M. pre-NFP anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : Rollover.
Their influences : Today's fresh multi-session lows preclude my rules from rolling the ES contract's front month forward from Mar to Jun until Mon.
Premise : Anxiousness ahead of Fri's Employment Situation report might have ranged sideways if not for a 2-hour old surge having suddenly inflated prices without yet attracting sponsorship to defend it. Afternoon selling in reaction to Bank sector issues might have been shallower if not for the midday collapse's momentum. And tomorrow I might add that Thu could have developed last-minute pessimism ahead of Payrolls -- potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective -- had there not been an entirely separate catalyst that it the drop was discounting. Even an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction would be vulnerable to reversing down and extending Thu's decline into the weekend, now starting from a lower, pivotal level.
Alternative : Simultaneously oversold RSIs at Thu's low can be neutralized overnight. Following their test with a recovery back above 3948 could rob sellers of their traction, albeit that was a much more reliable setup if triggered Thu. But somehow gaining upside traction any higher would all but target 3984.
Levels : UP: 4008, 4045, 4068... DOWN: 3960, 3929, 3974.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3933, targeting 3948.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3911, targeting 3898.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.