Real Time Day Trading Signals - 03-10-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Is optimism bullish, when it doesn't get anywhere? Wednesday's session was spent almost exclusively in positive territory. The session made higher lows throughout. But positive bias gained no traction, while all price action was contained within Tuesday's late-afternoon range up to 1982.00. And "unfinished business below" was left outstanding at 1968.00 (basis Jun). Overnight action's new info... China's econ reporting triggered a surge to fresh highs testing 1986.00. Reversing down attacked 1977.00 ahead of Europe's opens, but a complete recovery tested fresh highs above 1987.00. Now a break higherhas touched 1989.50 as the ECB policy statement and subsequent Mario Draghi press conference are looming closer. If, then... Answering my own question (whether optimism is bullish when it doesn't get anywhere), no. That doesn't prevent trying to extend, but bases built by weak-handed buyers don't often launch durable rallies. And not necessarily by reacting down immediately to this morning's ECB events -- a surge testing 1991.50 or new recovery highs up to 1999.50 would remain vulnerable to failure. Like last Friday's reaction to payrolls, which reversed a large pre-open surge, but this time without recovering it. All of which assumes already rejecting a recovery through a relevant timing window, because otherwise a much higher high could develop... [The front-month rolls forward from Mar to Jun at this morning's open.] First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1990.00 would be likely also to recover the 1987.00 bias-up target through 10:15 which would renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1986.00 would be unlikely to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1877.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Retest of prior highs didn't attract sponsorship. The ECB news had been greeted at this morning's 1987.00 bias-up target. Its knee-jerk reaction to 2001.00 was retraced entirely before the open, and then some, down to 1984.25. The open's blip-down to 1980.50  was consolidated, and then recovered up to 1995.25. Reacting down was supported by the 1987.00 bias-up target. This is a bias-up environment. That didn't prevent sliding down to 1976.00. Despite its depth, that leg only overlapped the 1981.75 bias-up signal. And it reacted back up to 1984.00. This being a bias-up environment, the 1981.75 bias-up signal should define its lower-end. Otherwise, a lower low would be attracted to the 1968.00 unfinished business below left outstanding from yesterday morning.

Already probing under yesterday's lows. Holding a test of yesterday morning's bias-up signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 1968.00 bias-down signal. Attacking it to within 1 point didn't neutralize its attraction, which became "unfinished business below." Rallying up to 2001.00 doesn't negate the attraction below, which was tested this morning down to 1964.50. Topping template intact? I think so. Meanwhile, "no-bias trending" under this morning's 1981.75 bias-up signal must be retested. Often, that will also visit the 10:15 print, which this morning happens to be 1990.00. Back under 1966.75 again would suggest a much deeper and much longer delay to retesting 1981.75.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1085.25 1974.75 ...would target  1991.50  1981.00 Bias-down: under 1977.25  1966.75 ...would target 1970.50  1960.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Thursday afternoon's rally from 1958.00 exited the bias environment probing fresh relative highs, but still within the noon hour's range. Entering the final hour higher tried gaining traction, but the 3:10-3:20 window failed its attempt to trend higher. That didn't prevent extending to fulfill the required retest of 1981.75, probing it by 2 ticks. So, the attraction above is neutralized. The opportunity to gain traction wasn't exploited. And the close avoided recovering a relevant level, which keeps alive the topping template. Meanwhile, Friday morning's relentless plunge was a glimpse of the character expected if and when the trend reverses down. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1995.50 1985.00 ...would target  2002.00  1991.50 Bias-down: under  1981.75  1971.25 ...would target 1974.75  1964.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.