Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's gap up to 3855.00-3866.00 extended through the morning up to 3892.00, then through the noon hour to test 3901.00. Ranging sideways through the afternoon finally broke through the last half-hour -- lower to 3870.50 -- and still ended above the opening range well into positive territory. No unfinished business was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) A brief bounce was reversed back down through midnight to test Tuesday's opening range down to 3856.00. Bouncing to 3883.00 through Europe's opens found resistance at the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retrace from yesterday's highs. Now its reaction back down is trying to hold 3865.00 as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Now we know yesterday's late pullback was not sufficient to offset the 2-3 earlier instances of excessive optimism and impatient buyers. The overnight drop stopped 11 points short of its potential down to 3845.00 that would still qualify as only backing-and-filling. Meanwhile, extending the rally this morning isn't likely while opening under 3891.00. But bouncing into position this morning is likely so long as bias-down doesn't trigger or renew -- the bias-down signal is currently being attacked. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

And now its reaction down trying to recover. Opening above 3891.00 was the minimum requirement to signal trending up this morning, and that wasn't even being threatened. Overnight selling was trying to hold 3865.00-3870.00 -- just above yesterday's open, and vulnerable to probing lower. The pre-open CPI reaction shifted that paradigm, not only triggering a surge to greet the open at 3899.00. Extending through the first half-hour up to 3911.50 probed yesterday's 3901.00 highs and this morning's 3907.50 bias-up target. Reacting down is now testing the 3888.75 bias-up signal as support down to 3883.50. The dip is also testing the gap-to-gap proxy. Retesting the bias-up target is not required but likely, and likelier so long as the gap-to-gap range's support holds. Meanwhile, exiting the open above 3891.00 still makes the bias window likely to trend up. That means fresh session highs by noon, which would likely leverage the interim dip to extend higher from there.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL BIAS-UP: above 3908.50 signal would target 3918.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3889.00 signal would target 3879.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Holding up, and holding out? The first half-hour's rally up to 3911.50 had reacted down to 3883.50 into the bias window. Gapping up above 3891.00 had suggested the window's exit would be at least higher than its 10:15 3898.00 entry. And 3908.00 was attacked by noon. Price action since has only ranged sideways down to 3892.50. A knee-jerk reaction down to the 10-year auction was recovered fully up to 3909.50, only to slip back into the sideways range. Nothing bullish or bearish requires resolving this range either way today. Meanwhile, delaying an upside resolution is leaving less and less room for only temporarily detouring down. In other words, exiting the bias window in decline would start to reject the earlier recoveries, and threaten dipping to 3845.00.

Wednesday morning's 3911.00 high was the end result of a 55-point rally from overnight lows. Half of that had come before CPI triggered a pre-open surge that marginalized sellers through the morning. Grinding flat-to-higher eventually tested 3916.00 but finished back under earlier highs. Albeit conceived in a narrow range, buyers gained traction by exiting the afternoon bias window above the noon hour high, and entering the final hour higher. Regardless of the interim price action, Thursday morning should trend up. Wednesday morning's similar influence at least enabled the recovery from a post-open dip. Actually trending up, if not also aggressively, gets a little likelier as whenever the weekend and $1.9 Trillion stimulus packages are getting nearer. Regardless of Wednesday's fresh recovery highs, pullbacks are allowed the same room as the past two sessions -- down to 3845.00 -- which doesn't require being tested otherwise. Wednesday's relatively narrow intraday range makes probing either end overnight that much easier, so an opening setup is that much likelier. Note that the front-month rolls forward to JUN at Thursday's open, which trades at about a 10-point discount from MAR. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED BIAS-UP: above 3893.00 signal would target 3901.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3379.25 signal would target 3369.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals.