Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Limit down Tuesday night was allowed to open Wednesday at the 2343.00 Level-1, which bounced immediately to avoid being halted. Its reaction up to 2442.00 was retraced entirely during the noon hour. The reversal extended to the 2262.00 afternoon low. The bias environment exit formed a buy signal that got up  to 2348.00 that only reacted down to 2290.00 instead of to new lows. That was avoided by a 123-point surge up to 2413.50 in reaction to the Senate passing its Families First Coronavirus Response Act. Fun fact: Dropping 123 points instead from the same starting point would have met my 2167.00 target. Symmetry. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The ECB announced its own Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, or PEPP. Catchy. That earned a little follow-through up to 2460.00. But like the pre-close reaction to the Senate's less catchy FFCRA, both were triggered by headlines, so both were likely to be retraced or at least corrected. In fact, yesterday's late low was attacked to within 13 points at 2275.00 by midnight. That narrowly avoided the 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down by 1-2 points. Another US assistance program was announced around then by the Fed, this one providing loans and credit protection to institutions. Meanwhile, both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged positively there, launching a 140-point rally that has retested Wednesday's last-minute high up to 2415.00. Now its reaction down is trying to hold 2350.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) We should learn today whether the decline is already to allow a big corrective bounce, or whether the decline is extending. Yesterday's characteristics were a model for the type of session that, if repeated today and tomorrow and maybe even Monday, would help to form a bottom. With the exception of one missing element, i.e. closing under prior lows, yesterday's pattern was almost fully saturated with pessimism. Largely organic pessimism, only triggering an intraday halt instead of at the open. Another 1-2 downtrending sessions with fresh low closes can satisfy the last pessimists, wash-out weak-handed optimists, and even start converting stubborn optimists -- the full Monty. That effort might become 3-5 sessions, but I'm wondering whether they'll get that chance, given the globally concerted effort of governmental and central bank support. But until closing back above yesterday morning's 2443.00 high, or at least maintaining a probe above it through a timing window, I'll be more concerned with the similarity to preparation done for Lehman's collapse. Anyway, none of it enhances corporate earnings one penny. That's what closing today above 2443.00 could do, at least start to suggest the worst has been discounted enough for launching a multi-session corrective rally. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2388.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2420.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2388.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2373.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2366.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

All after seriously probing under the bias-down parameters. The 2375.00 open immediately collapsed through a 2357.50 sell signal on the way down to 2306.00 before the opening 15 minutes of volatility ended at 9:45. Reversing straight up from there triggered the nearest buy signal above 2328.00 and extended up to 2422.75. That's when the bias timing window ended at 10:15. Disaster averted? Maybe, but not yet. In a half-hour, the market went from 1) probing sharply under both bias-down parameters, 2) to recovering the 2373.75 bias-down signal and putting into play an offsetting test of its 2420.00 bias-up signal, then 3) to invoking the grace period for testing the bias-up signal. Holding the bias-up signal through 10:30 put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. A 5-stage pattern that formed during the recovery made that test likely to include at least 2366.00. It was tested down to 2363.00. Now the 5-stage pattern is deciding whether to resume the recovery, or the decline, and a recovery attempt is attacking 2400.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2466.00 2455.00 ...would target 2488.00 2477.00 Bias-down: under 2412.00 2401.00 ...would target 2388.00 2377.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Choppy, but an inside day. Bottoms don't wait to stabilize before launching recoveries. So, today's relatively stability -- i.e. inside day, morning's no-bias, and afternoon noN-bias -- make lower lows likely before a rally can be reliable for extending. Ending the day still range bound could launch a rally by maintaining a gap up through Friday's open. But the only bullish signal remaining today is the same one at yesterday's close, immediately recovering relevant resistance through the open. What was 2443.00 might be adjusted up to 2555.00 or even to 2600.00 with further delay. 2443.00 is now being tested as resistance, during this afternoon's noN-bias environment. No specific resolution is required, and trending either way into the final hour would be entirely credible for extending in that direction.

The widest trending after Wednesday's close was Globex rejecting its early surge to 2460.00, back down to 2275.00 by midnight. Several still sizeable legs trended back up to within 3 points of the overnight high at 2457.50. But that was isolated between exiting the afternoon bias environment and entering the final hour. And it was the third test to ultimately hold 2443.00 resistance. The last reaction down reached 2388.00 by the cash session close, and then 2347.00 after it. With varying significance, Thursday's session missed 10 opportunities to entrench a bullish consequence. Rejecting the higher Globex open, only testing 2443.00 resistance, only testing bias-up, unconfirmed buy signals, isolating the bias window's exit... just 1-2 instances isn't abnormal, but it's not usual, and missing so many opportunities in one session is rare. The last similar occurrence was the week prior to February's high, when two consecutive sessions each failed to exploit two potentially bullish setups. It's possible that Thursday's misses are a function of Friday's expiration. Regardless, they're not a function of accumulation. Launching a rally leg from this range must begin by gapping up above prior highs like 2555.00 -- more than 100 points above Thursday's 2443.00 line in the sand that wasn't exploited. Bottoms don’t wait to stabilize before launching recoveries. Thursday qualifies as stability, albeit masked by the gigantic range. A rally is still likely to visit fresh lows first. So, not gapping up Friday, is likely to visit fresh lows next. And since trend extremes tend not to accompany expirations, fresh lows Friday would undermine a recovery's near-term potential. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2438.25 2427.25 ...would target 2464.00 2453.00 Bias-down: under 2388.00 2377.00 ...would target 2367.50 2356.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.