Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday literally snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. The pre-open fresh low attacked critical 2813.00 support, but recovered back above Wednesday's 2817.25 low to form an Isolation setup. Its reward would be to retrace the week's ~2860.00 prior high. The setup gained confidence halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, and from the entire open's steep slope, if not also from extending higher through the first half-hour. A noon hour pullback resolved up to 2866.00 -- already fulfilling the Isolation setup's objective. Overnight action's new info... Exiting Thursday afternoon's bias environment ranged sideways through the close. The range persisted through the Globex open, dipping to 2856.00 by midnight. That was also a test of this morning's 2857.25 bias-down signal, and its test produced a bounce back up to unchanged at 2862.50. A 30-minute drop fell down to 2847.25, which is still being tested as price hovers around this morning's 2849.25 bias-down target. Interestingly, Zerohedge is reporting a favorable Trump China Trade comment, and it's having only little near-term impact on price. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday afternoon's no-bias trending has now been retrace to both its 2854.50 bias-up signal and 2852.00 1:20 print, which remained attractions below. The afternoon's buyers had gained no traction for their efforts, so extending higher today all but requires gapping up, which isn't currently indicated. Rallying anyway would be likely to fail, whether only from filling the gap back to yesterday's close or probing yesterday's highs. Meanwhile, the week's earlier 3-day series of failed intraday rallies hasn't indicated its demise, but it's not yet clear whether the overnight dip is the start of its return, or if it's just natural backing-and-filling after a multi-session outside day. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open above 2861.00 at 10:15 would be unlikely to trigger the 2857.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2854.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2846.00 would be likely to exceed the 2849.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal

Attempting a fourth reversal this week. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday each contained intraday rallies that were retraced entirely that day. The pattern is distribution. All of that recent selling helped yesterday's rally, which had far less challenging ballast. But the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday pattern never suggested it was done. And now yesterday's significant intraday rally has been retraced by more than 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. Failing to recover at the open was likelier to trend down, next targeting 2830.75. The open's low touched it and reacted up sharply to 2843.50. Now the bounce has failed, probing fresh lows again by to at least 2828.25. The next lower objective is 2823.75. And then a retest of yesterday's lows. Another bounce can't be dismissed, but it otherwise appears that the downside remains intact.  

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2817.00 2822.00 ...would target 2823.00 2828.00 Bias-down: under 2808.00 2813.00 ...would target 2798.50 2803.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

No windows are being rejected. This is this week's fourth reversal of a substantial bounce. And this was the biggest reversal, ending at the lowest level. Yesterday's rally was a function of all the ballast that had been dumped during the three prior intraday reversals. But as I described during the Market Tour, strong-handed distribution isn't positioning for a 2-3 day correction. The pullback's ultimate low could be 2-3 weeks away. And much lower. The open's bounce had an opportunity to reject the overnight slide. But the bounce was rejected, aggressively, quickly falling to touch the next lower objective at 2830.75. Its reaction offered an opportunity to reject the post-open slide. But that bounce was also rejected by sharply lower lows. The noon hour entry attacked 2809.00, already retracing yesterday's pre-open 2813.75 low. Now having avoided triggering this afternoon's 2813.00 bias-down signal -- which is still being tested -- there's another opportunity to reject the slide. Friday Factors could help to trigger a short-squeeze, but there's no requirement to bounce at all. And there's no requirement to resume the decline today, but those Friday Factors: the growing realization of this being a distributive market is greeting two days of impending illiquidity. Refer to the first paragraph.

Don't discount Friday's complete retracement of Thursday's rally. It was the resumption of distribution that we began identifying Monday. Then Tuesday. And Wednesday. Friday's drop proves what we had assumed at Thursday's close, that the intraday rally was only a function of having dumped all of that ballast Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. It was not strong-handed buying. And distribution by that crowd, for that duration, is positioning for more than one week of problems that they see off on the horizon. Like Friday's 2-point surge in the 30-year triggering a Cup & Handle pattern, if more than just the strong hands are distributing, then capitulation isn't far behind. Had Thursday's rally stuck, and the overnight dip held Friday as only backing-and-filling, then perhaps this week's reversal could be explained away as volatility ahead of the next upleg. I would still be wary in this range of potential for one more probe higher. But there's no "unfinished business" above, and ending the week in decline reflects a continued vulnerability to a much steeper, deeper decline.

Of course, it always seems darkest before the dawn. And, more on point, bull markets have a way of stepping right up to the brink, and then reversing. I'll be monitoring for any signs that sellers are done, because the reaction up would far exceed the week's highs.

Meanwhile, the week-ending decline did satisfy unfinished business below at 2806.25 by 1 point. The next lower support is 2801.00, and then 2751.00. Probably as only a correction, possibly as a deeper correction, and potentially as a retest of the Christmas low. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. REMINDER: NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND DUE TO TRAVEL.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2810.75 2815.75 ...would target 2819.50 2824.50 Bias-down: under 2798.50 2803.50 ...would target 2790.50 2795.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.