Real Time Day Trading Signals - 03-26-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Invalidating Wednesday morning''s no-bias was easily done by a 13-point plunge from 2080.00 into the noon hour. That doubled through the close to 2052.25, touching the week-old low that had printed just minutes before the FOMC event.

Overnight action''s new info...
2052.25 tried its best to hold, but there was no buying effort. Support finally gave way an hour before Europe''s opens, dropping relentlessly to within 1-2 ticks of the last relative low at 2033.25. The reaction up from there has reached 2042.00, still down double-digits from yesterday''s close.

If, then...
Middle East war causing higher Crude Oil is the latest basket of straw on the market camel''s back. Being  this morning''s bias-down target, 2042.00 will act as resistance when tested from below. Probing above it and holding as support through 10:15 would at least avoid renewing the bias-down signal. But the morning''s bias environment would still be bias-down. If a temporary rally like yesterday afternoon''s bias environment is possible, its best chance is probably from a quick probe under the 2033.25 low. Already bouncing back above 2045.00 at the open could follow-through initially, but still not with any confidence of avoiding a later downdraft.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2045.00 would be unlikely to renew the bias-down signal, and likelier to hold the 2042.00 bias-down target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2037.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering the 2042.00 bias-down target.

Overnight drop is recovered, overnight recovery is retraced.

The pre-open bounce held its test of 2045.75 and reacted down to 2040.25. Being the "lower prior highs" of the overnight head & shoulders pattern, its support launched an obligatory bounce. 

It was quite a bounce, fulfilling its objective to test this morning''s 2050.25 bias-down signal as resistance. Just touching it was enough to end the bounce, triggering a reaction down. 

It was quite a reaction down, retracing all of the pre-open rally from 2036.25. Being the original 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} projection of the overnight head & shoulders pattern, its support launched another obligatory bounce.

At least, that''s the premise right now -- that bouncing is only temporary. 

The overnight head & shoulders pattern did influence the opening 15 minutes of volatility, so it should continue influencing intraday action. And having bounced above its "head" after only a singular break lower met its 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} target, the pattern''s 161.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} 2034.50 and 261.9{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} 2030.75 targets are attractions.

But there is no required attraction below, at least not in any particular timing window. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above its 2050.25 bias-down signal would suggest a much bigger bounce underway, targeting well into yesterday''s range. But the overnight lows should be retested eventually, anyway.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2064.50
2054.00
...would target 2069.00
2060.50
Bias-down: under 2055.25
2046.75
...would target 2049.50
2041.00
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Stopping pessimistically short of touching the two prior days'' highs around 1.0265 Wednesday inght suggested at least an obligatory probe up to 1.1075 before reversing down. But the bottom fell out Thursday morning under 1.0975 and extended down to 1.0867. The dip can extend down to 1.0805-1.0815 without reversing the trend down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1190.00 pullback limit wasn''t even threatened after fulfilling the 1197.00 target Wednesday, and the potential for extending to 1216.00 was over-delivered by Wednesday night''s surge up to 1219.50. Thursday did not retest 1216.00, but consolidated exclusively above Wednesday''s high around 1205.00. Closing above 1216.00 would be difficult, but very bullish.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only slightly higher highs Wednesday night continued to suggest the recent rally is weighted down by the need for a corrective dip targeting 16.45-16.60.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A brief bounce to the original corrective bounce limit at 165-07 Wednesday night couldn''t overcome Tuesday''s signal that the rally had peaked already. Perhaps the stock market''s recovery attempt was also a catalyst to pushing bonds lower to 162-09. A corrective dip would target 160-02 so long as 163-08 isn''t recovered first.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Is this a paradigm shift? The 49.55 corrective bounce limit had held Wednesday, and was probed considerably by $3 overnight on Yemen hostilities -- which could have been only an extended corrective bounce. But the intraday low didn''t touch Wednesday''s high, and if not rejected by gapping down Friday to form an Island, closing above 51.45 would extend the rally to 55.45 and potentially much higher.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Failing to greet Thursday''s EIA report from a position of strength resulted in a reaction down through prior lows at 2.65. The recent range''s accumulation can become quickly distributed if a recovery back above 2.77 is delayed.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2062.50
2054.25
...would target 2069.25
2061.00
Bias-down: under 2052.00
2043.75
...would target 2041.75
2038.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.