Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... China trade and Brexit probably helped Friday's opening gap up to 2836.00, testing 3-day old highs by 1 point. But only momentarily as price began dipping to test 1-day old highs down to 2823.00. Quarter-end portfolio window dressing probably supported flat-to-higher ranging up to 2834.00 through late-afternoon. Blipping-up into the last 90 minutes to 2840.00 was retested after the close, which was otherwise still overlapping the opening print. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open gapped up above the bias-up signal to 2844.50 and spiked higher immediately through the bias-up target to attack 2854.00. Trending higher touched 2860.00 and reacted back down to 2854.50 through midnight. A fresh high up to 2861.25 has also reacted back down to 2854.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday's equilibrium close and ineffectual optimism could be overcome only by gapping up. The reward would be to retest two-week old highs, at least up to 2855.00, probably also the gap-fill back to the 2861.00-2863.00 high close, if not also to probe the two-week old 2866.00 prior high (to 2869.00). All but the latter was done overnight. Which makes a second consecutive close back above 2019.50 less significant to rejecting the week-old bearish trend change: Gapping up to resistance instead of trending there is difficult to attract reinforcements, and upside momentum is jeopardized by touching resistance without also exceeding it through a timing window. Regardless, closing back under 2013.00-2019.50 Monday isn't necessary to confirm the trend is reversing down, but shouldn't be far behind if the two-week old distribution pattern -- of reversing intraday rallies -- confronts Monday's rally attempt. Wouldn't THAT be the perfect April Fool's Day prank. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2853.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2848.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2855.00. Exiting the open above 2845.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2842.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

A "Dry Cleaners" morning setup combines with a higher objective. The overnight rally to 2860.00-2861.25 had ranged sideways back down to 2854.50, holding up through the open. Its optimism was never corrected pre-open, and the 2859.00 open blipped-up to attack the overnight highs. Its 5-point reaction down never threatened a sell signal before surging to 2863.50 on 10:00 econ reports. The fresh high completed the 2-week old high close's 2861.00-2863.00 gap fill. Its 6-point reaction down held above the renewed bias-up target to trigger a doubly-renewed bias-up signal. That's not very reliable, being so far removed from the price action that created the bias levels. But the high's gap fill does suggest its 2866.00 high print will be retested, too. And its retest is likely to include a visit to 2869.00. So, 2869.00 is  essentially in-play. Which is credible despite all 5 of the first hour's 15-minute checkpoints having overlapped the 2859.00 open to form a "Dry Cleaners morning" setup. The setup suggests that price action will be unwieldy, which might delay extending to 2869.00. But 2869.00 remains credible so long the bias environment exit is holding the 2856.00 post-open lows.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2859.75 2864.00 ...would target 2864.75 2869.00 Bias-down: under 2853.00 2857.50 ...would target 2847.50 2851.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Late bias-up keeps momentum intact. Fresh highs up to 2864.50 during the morning's bias environment had confirmed upside momentum remained intact. The confirmation came a little early, and could have been rejected back under 2859.00 (this morning's Dry Cleaners signal level). But the pullback limit was only attacked before recovering through the noon hour, reflecting weak-handed sellers. The noon hour's exit probed the 2866.00 two-week old high by 2 ticks, fulfilling the likely structural reward for gapping up. The high gap's 2855.00 retracement, or the 2861.00-2863.00 gaps could have neutralized the attraction. But their reactions down haven't attracted reinforcements, so upside momentum remains intact. Now the afternoon's 2864.00 bias-up has triggered, late. It could have been rejected back under 2863.25. But the reversal signal was only touched, and the signal was recovered in time to trigger. The high's room for noise up to 2869.00 -- which is also this afternoon's bias-up target -- remains in-play. Having fulfilled the structural reward for gapping up, reversing down would leave no "unfinished business" to help recover. Meanwhile, the recent intraday distributive pattern keeps today's rally vulnerable. And I'm not at all biased by really wanting to label my next post "April Fool's".

Friday's "ineffectual optimism" setup, for appearing ahead of the weekend, had made Monday's open likely either to gap up or to gap down. And it didn't gap down. In fact, Sunday night's open had already gapped up and extended through the morning's bias-up parameters. Hovering at its highs into the open without bothering to correct reflected more optimism lying ahead. And even the "Dry Cleaners morning" setup didn't prevent resolving up into the afternoon. The reward for Friday's pattern resolving up was to retest two-week old highs. By proxy, gap-fill, or actually probing room for noise would suffice, and the rally neutralized it all. Room for noise up to 2869.00 was met and held through the afternoon bias environment. Surging after the position-squaring window up to 2873.50 still found time to retrace entirely back down to 2866.50, so 2869.00 held. Otherwise, its recovery would essentially put into play 2902.00. So, still overlapping the upper-end of the two-week old distributive pattern raises the question, where's the distribution? Was it the cause of Monday's restrained rally? Or, has strong-handed distribution suddenly become so universally patient that another upleg is underway? If the latter, then its upleg should be steep. If the former, then another second-day reversal like this area's last test should be obvious by noon Tuesday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2868.00 2872.25 ...would target 2874.75 2879.00 Bias-down: under 2859.25 2863.75 ...would target 2852.25 2856.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.