Real Time Day Trading Signals - 04-07-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Monday''s pre-open firming to 2048.00 extended steeply and substantially. Friday''s Globex plunge from 2063.00 was recovered entirely by the 10:15 bias timing window. Last Tuesday afternoon''s drop from 2074.00 was recovered during the bias environment. Higher highs at 2080.00 stopped 2 points short of touching last Monday''s last relative high. The final hour dipped back down to 2072.25.

Overnight action''s new info...
The final hour''s dip extended slightly lower to test 2070.50 as support. It had been Monday morning''s attraction above, and its support held. Firming into Europe''s opens eventually surged to 2077.50, which had been Monday afternoon''s bias-up signal. Its resistance held, and reacted down to 2071.00. That has now recovered to a fresh high at 2079.25.

If, then...
Yesterday''s late dip wasn''t likely to gain traction for its effort. That didn''t prevent there being potential down to 2066.00 before even beginning to prevent resuming yesterday''s rally. But now that the recovery from 2070.50 has behaved aggressively -- surging to 2077.50, twice -- post-open action shouldn''t hesitate much before extending the rally. Otherwise, dipping again post-open would put 2066.00 on the radar, if not deeper to 2061.00.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2073.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2077.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2078.25 would start to make the bias-up likelier to trigger.

Yet another dip, and yet another recovery. The open''s surge from 2073.25 immediately proved that yesterday''s last-hour sellers were weak-handed, by surging through yesterday''s 2080.00 high to 2081.50.

Doubters will be doubters, and a quick slide developed to 2072.25. That took 20 minutes. Another 25 minutes later, and 2081.50 was recovered. Then it was exceeded up to the 2082.50 bias-up target.

The bias-up target is calculated from accumulation patterns, and identifies where that buying pressure would be satisfied. Meeting the 2082.50 target must either extend higher without delay or else react down. This instance is reacting down.

A pullback has room down to 2077.50 (optimal) or to 2075.00 (stretching it) before suspecting that yet another dip is trying to do some damage. Meanwhile, just having returned to last week''s highs makes the two-week old highs likely to be retested, too. And there''s no reason for that other than to probe a new high.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2089.75
2082.50
...would target 2096.25
2089.25
Bias-down: under 2082.00
2075.00
...would target 2077.00
2069.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Backing off to attack 1.0900 late Monday was too late to maintain the bearish scenario. It would still require Tuesday''s close to be under 1.0855. Tuesday''s open gapped down to test it, and just still overlapping it at the close would reinstate the bearish scenario -- so long as 1.0900 were not recovered again.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1213.00 and 1208.50 pullback limits were both tested Tuesday. Closing underboth on the same day would have been bearish, but not already closing back above both now requires closing above 1218.00 to signal that momentum is reversing back up.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Room for a pullback down to 16.80-16.90 was probed fully overnight, and held intraday Tuesday. Closing back above 17.05 would signal the rally had resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow sideways ranging Tuesday avoided resuming the rally, which is in-line with the bigger distributive pattern, as an accumulative pattern would not remain under pressure within two days of a new high. But the pattern''s timing should now recognize the lack of recovery and extend down more aggressively.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday''s post-open surge probed above prior highs to attack 53.85. Holding 52.50 as support would be optimal for maintaining potential to 56.00.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Monday night back to Thursday''s close didn''t qualify as filling its gap. Dipping back down before Tuesday''s open helped to restrain the optimism so that sellers could be marginalized. Actually filling the gap intraday without yet reversing down makes any fresh high Wednesday likely to extend higher intraday -- and potentially to greet Thursday''s EIA report from a position of strength.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2082.25
2075.00
...would target 2088.00
2081.00
Bias-down: under 2073.00
2066.00
...would target 2068.25
2061.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.