Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Trending down sharply Tuesday night seemed to fulfill one of the most common characteristics of bear market rallies: that they end abruptly and obviously. Intraday testing of the likely 2825.00-2827.00 bear rally target had overlapped it throughout the day. But instead of a second consecutive close's confirmation above the target, Wednesday morning extended down. The afternoon's bias-up fulfilled its target, which ultimately held as resistance. The morning's post-open probe down to 2751.00 and afternoon reaction up to 2793.00 ended the session overlapping the 2773.00 opening print. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednesday's post-open fluctuation has persisted overnight, only wider. Both bias targets have been met, and contained the overnight range. First the reaction down from afternoon highs continued falling into Globex, soon probing under Wednesday's lows by at least 5 points down to 2746.00. A rally began by midnight and extended all the way into Europe's opens, all the way up to 2806.25. Backing-and-filling since then has dipped back into yesterday's range to 2779.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Wednesday's similar opening and closing levels reflect inertia, especially when containing the momentum of a gap. So, trending this morning all but requires gapping beyond either end of yesterday's 2751.00-2793.00 post-open range. Its upper-end is currently the likelier candidate, but much can change with Jobless Claims yet to come. Gapping in either direction isn't assured of extending, it's just the likelier start to trending and depends on being maintained and preferably extended through the open. Gapping up would be credible for activating any traction buyers gained yesterday afternoon, to trend up through the morning. Shaking off yesterday's attempted rejection of the 2827.00-2827.00 bear market rally target would be that much likelier to extend the rally to its next potential target. There is otherwise no bullish reason for extending yesterday's reaction down, let alone to revisit Monday's test of 2715.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2797.00 would be likely to trigger the 2788.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open Exiting the open under 2781.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Range bound. Jobless Claims was greeted at 2774.00, which reacted up to 2800.00. But the open only fluctuated around yesterday's 2793.00 high. And then rejected it. Gapping up to and/or through yesterday's high was necessary to trigger the traction that yesterday afternoon's buyers had gained. It wasn't triggered. And not gapping beyond either end of yesterday's range made this morning likely to be contained by that range. All of which made trending back down to yesterday's lows likely. Which then developed, all the way to 2755.00. Meanwhile, the focus shifted from testing the 2788.00 bias-up signal to testing the 2762.50 bias-down signal. The grace period was triggered and no-bias triggered late, putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. Being a late bias, its objective won't become "unfinished business" if left outstanding. But it's usually met, and the recovery is already attacking 2781.00. Back under 2766.00 would start to signal the pattern resolving down.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2808.25 2799.00 ...would target 2824.00 2814.75 Bias-down: under 2792.75 2783.50 ...would target 2780.75 2771.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Range bound and down... AND a favor. An offsetting test of this morning's 2788.00 bias-up signal was put into play by holding a test of the 2761.50 bias-down signal. It was tested already and the no-bias signal was late, but its test was still likely. And it was met, probed ultimately by 10 points. But yesterday's range was still likely to contain price action. And the noon hour reversed down to attack 2755.00 at this morning's low. Three very enriching and satisfying trends (including the open's drop from holding yesterday's 2793.00 high), all before this afternoon's bias environment. With tomorrow's expiration only hours away, let alone post-close and pre-open earnings. Beware of the growing potential not only for narrowing the range, but also for price action getting sloppy. A bounce now underway has room above to test the 2783.50 bias-down signal as resistance during this afternoon's bias-down environment. Sloppiness could allow probing above it, but only temporarily. Timing influences become less reliable, too. Back under 2770.50 and 2766.00 would start making fresh lows likely -- and little prevents probing lower. A favor... As you might know, I've been working toward relaunching my service, including an expanded Knowledge Base and also Learning Modules. Currently, my site developer is seeking new "Testimonials & Endorsements." If you don't mind taking a few minutes to share your thoughts, I will very much appreciate it. Anything from how you use the service, to your opinion/description of it, or whatever your thoughts. Thank you!

Rallying overnight up to 2806.00 had corrected before Thursday's open, posturing defensively ahead of Jobless Claims. Spiking back up maintained enough recovery to greet the open at or above Wednesday's 2793.00 high. But it wasn't maintained through the open to break free from Wednesday's range. The only path higher had already failed. The balance of the session traveled between Wednesday's extremes, back-and-forth and back-and-forth again. The afternoon's last turn was likely to be sloppier, and it was, but Thursday finished at the two-day range's upper-end. No traction was gained and no "unfinished business" was left outstanding. More so, Friday's expiration is being greeted from a multi-session range. Trending will be difficult to start. But it will also be difficult to stop if started. Both the ranging frequency and its repeated amplitude suggest the pattern wants to trend. Still, like Wednesday's open, gapping beyond the range may be the only way to start. The pattern hasn't become any more or less likely to resume either the bear market rally or its rejection. Expiration's paralyzing influence has been inhibiting one or the other. Unlike Thursday, Friday can probe into Tuesday's range and even retest the 2825.00-2827.00 area without yet being any likelier to extend higher. Simply breaking lower Friday, and not quickly recovered, would be likelier to resume the decline, if not also to trend down into the weekend. A favor… As you might know, I’ve been working toward relaunching my service, including an expanded Knowledge Base and also Learning Modules. Currently, my site developer is seeking new “Testimonials & Endorsements.” If you don’t mind taking a few minutes to share your thoughts, I will very much appreciate it. Anything from how you use the service, to your opinion/description of it, or whatever your thoughts. Thank you! See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2811.25 2802.25 ...would target 2830.00 2821.00 Bias-down: under 2282.25 2273.25 ...would target 2264.00 2255.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.