Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday morning's gap down tested 2899.00 and soon recovered back up to being unchanged from Thursday's 2908.50 close. Ranging narrowly flat-to-higher out of the bias environment still continued overlapping 2908.50. Finally breaking free in the last half-hour surged to 2912.75, just enough for Monday not to be a clean "inside day." Overnight action's new info... Although Monday's late surge to 2912.75 was largely retraced before the close, it was immediately extending just a little higher to 2915.00 after the close. That only stretched the rubber band, as an even deeper retracement soon extended down to 2908.00. Its reaction only attacked 2915.00 before dropping back down to 2909.00 through Europe's opens -- which continues to be tested as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Fluctuating overnight around yesterday's close may seem neutral, but its underlying optimism is preventing Monday's late surge from reversing down. Not yet extending higher isn't surprising, as was noted at the time, the internal breakout's timing reflected weak-handed sponsorship. Not so weak-handed that it can't attract reinforcements, but so weak-handed that not attracting reinforcements would face the likely consequence of retracing yesterday's recovery from 2899.00. At least. Extending higher this morning without delay would confirm yesterday's late breakout attempt, targeting fresh highs at 2926.50-2928.00. Meanwhile, having only ranged sideways overnight, the timing of breaking out from the range will be predictive. Regardless of direction, breaking out within 60-90 minutes of the open tends to be false, at least initially if not also ultimately. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2911.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2914.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2908.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2906.00 bias-down signal.

Pre-open breakout restrains itself to maximum effect. Having ranged sideways overnight, breaking out either way 60-90 minutes before the open would have been considered a false break. In fact, the range's 2914.75 upper-end was probed by 2 points before 8:30.

Soon the breakout retraced back into the range. The breakout could have extended further before allowing the retracement consequence. Instead, optimism was restrained. A shallower pre-open probe above 2914.75 also retraced back into the range, through the open. The overnight range's ill-timed breakout problem was negated. No further pullback is required.

The first 3 post-open minutes contained the pullback, and the balance of the hour has trended up to attack 2924.00. Last Wednesday's 2923.00 gap up above all prior highs is filled, although it wasn't required since its first minute had also overlapped "lower prior highs." Hesitation just under 2923.00 was "ineffectual pessimism," as was the immediate reaction down to finally piercing 2923.00. Both are potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective... and now 2924.50 is being tested. Meanwhile, the bias-up signal is renewed for having exceeded its 2920.25 bias-up target through 10:15. The renewed bias-up target in-play is 2926.50-2928.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2932.25 2935.00 ...would target 2940.00 2942.75 Bias-down: under 2925.00 2928.00 ...would target 2917.75 2920.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Extreme target met, exceeded, and then some. Having managed the pre-open breakout attempts above 2914.75 to restrain optimism, any early rally attempt was likely to extend. And any rally attempt not rejected would target the 2926.50-2928.00 room for noise above. That became official by renewing the bias-up signal above its 2920.25 bias-up target at 10:15. It was tested before coming within view of the bias environment lapsing. And it was probed up to 2932.00 as the bias environment began lapsing. On the way to attacking 2940.00 soon after noon. Its reaction down stopped 1 tick short of rejecting the afternoon's 2935.00 bias-up signal, which was triggered. Its 2942.75 bias-up target is in-play. It would become "unfinished business" if left outstanding, unless the bias environment were exited under its 2927.25 bias-up signal. We'll review the bigger picture during the Market Wrap, specifically the retest of Sep-Oct highs and the potential for new highs to be reversed aggressively.

Monday night's 2908.50-2914.00 sideways range tried breaking higher 60-90 minutes before the open. Had the breakout maintained or extended, then it likely would have been false. But it self-corrected pre-open, making almost any renewed buying pressure likelier to extend. Which it did, fulfilling its 2926.50-2928.00 objective before the bias environment began lapsing. And then extending to attack 2940.00 into the noon hour. Despite triggering bias-up, there was no afternoon momentum either way. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways between 2934.50-2938.00. The 2942.75 bias-up target becomes "unfinished business." And regardless of the afternoon's hesitation, the session formed a breakout from a multi-session range, still needing a second consecutive higher close Wednesday to confirm. Meanwhile, S&P Cash came within 4-5 points of its ~2841 Sep 21 high. Futures were trading at a 5-6 point premium, now equivalent to 2646.00-2647.00. There's no reason for the market to have come this close without intending to probe higher, although the path there is never assured. Sentiment is like an iron, and currently its optimism is hot. Expect the rally to strike it, unless a more powerful pessimistic sentiment heats up for whatever reason. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2939.25 2942.00 ...would target 2945.50 2948.25 Bias-down: under 2930.25 2933.25 ...would target 2922.75 2925.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.