Real Time Day Trading Signals - 05-12-2015

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2110.25
2105.00
...would target 2106.50
2101.50
Bias-down: under 2103.50
2098.50
...would target 2097.75
2092.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Firming at Monday''s open peaked upon touching Friday''s 2113.50 prior high. Its recovery was necessary to resume Friday morning''s rally, since buyers were fully rewarded and had failed to gain new traction. Trending back down through the afternoon''s bias environment stopped a little optimistically short of its potential to at least 2102.50. Last-hour selling took over by probing the lower-end of its potential down to 2098.50. No unfinished business below was left outstanding.

Overnight action''s new info...
Monday''s late dive extended to test 2096.00. Relatively narrow ranging tired of the status quo, and eventually firmed up to 2101.00. Apparently, that only angered the market into snapping back down sharply to fresh lows. A seemingly relentless slide has extended to attack 2079.00 -- along the way, ignoring three consecutive 3-minute RSI positive divergences (four 1-minute divergences). The last divergence was finally recognized by printing at least 2085.00. And then it reacted back down to 2082.00.

If, then...
Two points: First, while yesterday''s pullback was sufficient to extend the rally targeting new highs lower lows at 2091.25-2092.50 would have confirmed. And still could. Recovering at least that much by the open, and then improving through the open, could probe new highs today. Today, not a typo... Second, the alternative is diametrically opposite, and then some. Three consecutive ignored positive divergences (bouncing only shallowly before extending lower) happens when market facilitators panic calmly. At this stage, either they''ve absorbed very large selling pressures, or at least an equivalent amount is yet to come. The former would form a bottom, while the latter could last all day -- conservatively targeting the 2062.00 area. More so, the latter could take new highs off the table... A third bonus point: Among other scapegoats, the drop is associated with Greece''s debt payment scheduled today. Making it wouldn''t end their crisis, but it would likely end this leg. Meanwhile, VZ just announced it is buying AOL at a 20{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} premium to yesterday''s close, so scapegoats for a rally aren''t all dead.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2093.50 would be likely to recover this morning''s 2092.50 bias-down target through 10:15, and not renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2084.50 could extend next to the 2077.00 area.

Yesterday''s late low being retested as resistance.

The pre-open probe above 2088.00 stopped short of touching 2091.25. So, pre-open buyers stopped short of trapping themselves. That''s not necessarily bullish, but it prevented buyer from being marginalized.

Back under 2088.00 triggered a drop that touched uptrending support from overnight lows at 2080.25. That''s where the selling ended, and when -- with the opening 15 minutes of volatility, and not a moment later. It was as bearish as possible without gaining traction for its effort. Sellers weren''t marginalized.

A bounce back to 2088.00 repeatedly pierced under 2083.00, chipping away at its support without actually breaking lower. That effort ended with a surge to fresh session highs, testing the 2096.00 overnight lows. 

Exiting the bias environment any higher would give the recovery traction, targeting 2100.00-2101.00 and potentially new highs. Exiting the bias environment back under 2088.00 would isolate the probe above 2091.25 and give the decline traction, targeting fresh session lows, and lower.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2106.50
2101.50
...would target 2112.25
2107.50
Bias-down: under 2092.75
2088.00
...would target 2088.00
2083.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday.and ranging sideways avoided confirming Monday''s break. It also corrected the dip from last week''s target. If Wednesday doesn''t accelerate Tuesday''s recovery attempt, then it''s probably because the decline has resumed

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A pre-open spike up from testing 1182.70 tested the range''s 1194.50 upper-end, which held as resistance Tuesday. It also created a new sell signal at 1187.00, whose break would be confirmed under 1182.70.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday''s bounce extended throughout 16.50-16.65 resistance, stopping just short of even beginning to signal that momentum was reversing up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday night''s retest of last week''s 153-00 low extended down to 151-16. RSIs diverged positively on its retest down to 151-04, launching a 3-point rally. RSIs diverged negatively while RSIs tested and retested 154-04 resistance. A pullback holding 153-08 could resume the rally, but it wouldn''t be very credible so quickly at this stage of the pattern.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Two days of testing the 58.65 pullback limit tried resolving up Tuesday morning, testing 60.65. Closing higher Wednesday would confirm a new rally leg underway with potential to 70.00.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s dip to 2.80 avoided dipping any lower into a pullback, and resolved by gapping up Tuesday and extending to fresh highs at 2.93. Closing above 2.95 would confirm the 3.06 prior high''s test is in-play. Back under 2.85 would offer one last chance for a pullback targeting 2.63-2.67.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2106.50
2101.50
...would target 2112.25
2107.50
Bias-down: under 2092.75
2088.00
...would target 2088.00
2083.00
Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.