Real Time Day Trading Signals - 05-25-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I will be away from the market Friday. Market Tour and chaRTroom WILL be available, and possibly two intraday updates before the holiday weekend. Also, NO Saturday Review this weekend. Through the prior close... Wednesday's 2400.00 open qualified as gapping up by a 2-3 tick margin above Tuesday's highs. It reacted down immediately but only retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of Tuesday afternoon's range, which had been relatively narrow. That narrow range persisted until FOMC Minutes triggered volatility that resolved up to 2404.00. Unfinished business left outstanding below at 2391.00. Overnight action's new info... Hovering at 2404.00 into Asia's opens spiked up to 2411.25, and began consolidating around 2409.50 Eventually improving to 2412.50 ahead of Europe's opens was overly optimistic, and retraced down to 2505.50. A 5-point bounce from there is now consolidating again around 2409.50. If, then... The rally had eked its way back to and through "higher prior lows" at 2397.00 without reacting down through its close. That had become likely to test prior highs at 2401.00, which also held up through its close. The trend of higher highs and higher lows had been coiling with narrowing intraday ranges, making any new high likely to begin by almost literally exploding higher. That explosion comes a little late, having spent more time testing 2397.00. And exploding overnight indicates a gap up, which is difficult to attract sponsorship. Probing higher to fulfill the longstanding 2415.00 objective is likely, and its timing will help to reveal its resolution -- based on whether it precedes or avoids a healthy pullback to "lower prior highs." First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2407.25 would be unlikely to exceed this morning's 2409.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2415.00. Exiting the open above 2406.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... Alright good morning and welcome it is Thursday it's time for Thursday's morning market tour Thursday interesting overnight action not with Europe so much as with ages opens already we agreed it well exited the markets yes a session finally probing back Above This these higher priorities 2397 sort of on Monday but short of 2397 this the highs last consolidation hi sessions last consolidation are parallels 2397 Gap they're attacked on Monday not actually touching the higher part of those just barely nicking the lower end of the range that session so that the next session was unlikely to Gap up and LeapFrog over and extend through which is a classic pattern and instead on Tuesday then actually chipped away at that resistance or tested it became likely to at least probe it to its Pryor High 2401 and then another session that was yesterday yesterday morning actually threw the new tower inhibited suppressed perhaps after the morning because of the impending FMC minutes but still an entire timing window in addition to the overnight and when's and Tuesday afternoons timing window which is excess excessive overlapping 2397 instead of working through it already that's coiling we talked about the coiling indication just say morning narrower and narrower intraday ranges open versus closed or low versus intraday high and 24 points 19 points maybe 8-10 doing this or 17 Donuts off the top of my head 974 noon even narrower until the what does when it comes into resistance is resolved one of two ways and the one way of typically resolved by almost literally exploding higher which this is not yesterday afternoon was not almost literally exploded and and possibly getting involved 2404 or is Louis 2401 instead of overly optimistic we extending hires 2415 then that would be an interesting long entry and interesting by for the attraction back up to the overnight hi it's a new Globex friend extreme there's complexity here above prioritize there's one sponsorship and other sponsorship to hire high that overnight High requires being were tested in today at some point and then to 2415 but if instead the open is greeted gapping up and then Extenze higher without delay or at least extensor without pull back to 2415 depending on the timing of that say through the open I'll be looking probably to sell that I'm still need to see the actual open then and now I just here waiting for any 15 minutes of all day because that is the one possibility for extending hire through 2415 today that is to maintain the Gap up and to extend the Gap up through the opening 15 minutes of all time if the open is going to be here and and attract reinforcements which will know because of that character of trending up through the open it attracts reinforcements to the open then that is the basically one pattern that gets us to new highs or gets us to Trend. That's early throughout the day but they're not the morning to substantially higher highs than 2415 that would be almost an automatic one almost still a path down from that pattern but we'll talk about that if it happens alright so we're into that danger zone room for noise around Pryor High satisfying some other existing patterns upside of Jack Tubbs with unfinished business below with slow work done through resistance to get there and rather than almost literally exploding higher today's open for the intraday crowds and be invested in basically producing that overnight leaving them behind needing to dip down at least to pick them up or if extending too much I earn extra light getting too much done too soon of course we Gap up and reverse down it's going to leave a gap at standing back to today's open but that can be left out standing for awhile alright any questions going to update will be available so level 1 1285 to maintain the potential or likely that actually of correcting down feeling one Gap maybe to without closing above 1 1285 that's the Euro the Looney did not complete a pull back to the to the 7365 area lower prioritize before coming back in to fill the Gap back to Tuesdays open instead had some pretty harsh comments from Bank of Canada that responded to Higher and Higher and even higher overnight trying to probe higher I'm raising the cell signal to 7430 that would get that correction underway but closing above closing above what is the 261 8 extension of the inverted head and shoulders of got this pattern going to begin with got this rally going closing above 7455 that would be bullish least for extending the rally but I wouldn't want to be short into a closed above 7455 and then the pound just not holding it certainly trigger that Buy Signal and was productive it's kind of off a little because it happened overnight but just hasn't been able to hold it on a pulled back now I've been probing under yesterday's low but at least closing of yesterday's Low Wood and the rally and then RC try to hold at least 7465 lower 746 lower price that had printed overnight and then intraday the first test dipped down to 74th call at 7435 at least that a break under 7435 would likely reverse down silver for overnight remember there was a two nights ago that actually made it down to the islands close and then bounced right here bouncer at least racing there's one break above that island and attempted until there's actually closed under not just that Gap above Monday's high first available close and only by probing above the confirmation session very late in the day to that fresh high and tried probing higher yesterday but failed so first indication that the outside momentum having fulfilled the target was laughing and then here's some OPEC news overnight that's making it even more difficult than 250 5005 so no actual signal here if you know gapping down presumably gapping down not under this range but under the breakout sessions close which is effectively effectively 50 50 50 55 enclosing under it that's what reverses momentum down and the natural gas reports today 321 still being tested it was an opportunity to close under yesterday that wasn't exploited but now that was it rejected despite Providence today and being in proximity position to close above it it was pretty magnetic so not reading the eia report from a position of strength let any questions before the open right good luck today .

Gap up's hesitation resolves higher. The 2408.50 opening print was at least 4 points above all prior highs. Its reaction down to 2406.00 was still above any prior session's price action. Instead of a deeper retracement, the reaction consolidated through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And then it resolved up. Exceeding the 2409.50 bias-up target through 10:15 has renewed the bias-up signal. The renewed target is 2415.00, and it was just met to within 2-3 ticks. Last night's 2412.50 "new Globex trend extreme" was probed by 1 point. It had required an intraday retest, which is now fulfilled. Higher highs are possible, if not likely. RSIs had diverged negatively along the way up to 2413.50. But the potentially bearish setup was ignored before extending higher took RSIs back into overbought territory. Extending higher, or not, the afternoon will be vulnerable to reacting down. Not trending up through the open already undermines the post-open sponsorship. And the impending 3-day weekend inhibits new sponsorship.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2417.00  2415.75 ...would target  2422.50  2421.25 Bias-down: under  2410.75 2409.50 ...would target  2405.00  2403.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Long-standing target met, still testing. The 2415.00 renewed bias-up target was met this morning up to 2416.50. It was never probed higher than its first 3 minutes. And only one 1-minute bar is both detached from it and also printing a fresh high. RSIs had diverged negatively along the way up, and again at the high. Price action since then has been under pressure. Dipping into the noon hour attacked 2410.00, where the first negative divergence had developed. Bouncing into the noon hour's exit attacked this afternoon's 2415.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. It didn't trigger. Consolidating back down to 2412.50 is threatening to launch an afternoon downleg, which almost any lower would trigger. Otherwise, back above 2415.00 would start to signal the rally is extending. That's still unlikely, if only because it's difficult to attract reinforcements with the weekend looming -- let alone a 3-day weekend. Tomorrow would be more vulnerable to a short-squeeze, but today still has some luxury of time allowing buyers to be patient.

REMINDER: I'm away from the screens Friday. The chaRTroom WILL be open. Morning Market Tour and bias parameters WILL be available. I'll try to update before the final hour. Thursday's pullback from the 2416.50 morning high was relatively deep, attacking 2410.00. The balance of the session recovered back to the morning's high, without gaining traction for the effort. That didn't prevent a last-minute 3-point surge attacking 2418.00, only maintaining it. The surge reacted down 5 points through the close, as quickly as it had developed. Now 2415.00 has been fulfilled, and held as resistance. The rally gained no traction. And a gap is outstanding back down to Wednesday's close. Friday morning is more vulnerable to a catalyst than was Thursday afternoon, so trending higher can't be discounted. Otherwise, backing-and-filling down to 2404.00 or 2401.00 is likely. Actually trending down into the weekend would be difficult without already being obvious during the morning. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2417.00 2415.75 ...would target  2422.50  2421.25 Bias-down: under  2405.25  2404.00 ...would target  2400.25  2399.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.