Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) The Memorial Day holiday had rallied from Sunday night's open to Tuesday's 3019.75 pre-open high, forming a Relentless Overnight Trending setup. Countertrend sponsorship reacted down to take control of the morning, extending lower to test 2996.00 before noon. Its reaction up to 3012.00 hovered through the no-bias environment. Potential for breaking higher was ambushed by a headline's negative knee-jerk reaction. Its late-afternoon timing ensured extending down through the close, which tested the 38.2 of the 38.2 gap-to-gap retracement down to 2983.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday's late-afternoon headline reaction was likely to probe lower overnight. And after Tuesday's futures close bounced up to 2996.00, Globex soon retraced the bounce by an extra tick down to 2983.25. No time was wasted before bouncing, sharply, soon retracing the late-afternoon headline's origin, and then extending up to yesterday's 3016.25 open by midnight. But, wait, there's more. Flat-to-lower ranging greeted Europe's opens at 3008.00, which resumed the recovery to fresh highs at 3035.00. And once again, price action leading to the fresh overnight has complexity which qualifies as a new Globex trend extreme. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The overnight recovery proves that yesterday afternoon was poised to rally into the close, but for being ambushed by the headline reaction. The overnight recovery also creates extra room to absorb post-open selling. So, now it would take even more selling pressure to derail a second consecutive close above 2976.00, which is the (bear market?) rally's previous highest probe above 2930.00-2934.00. And a second consecutive close above 2976.00  would confirm the next higher objective at 3288.00 is in-play. Also, Tuesday's overnight high is now replaced by a higher new Globex trend extreme that requires intraday retest, often the same day. Anyway, unless the open is greeted back within yesterday's range, a post-open sell signal would be less compelling until the overnight high is retested. And more likely at that point would be a Gap-and-go setup that rallies through the morning and hovers through the afternoon. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3017.75 would be likely also to exceed the 3012.50 bias-up target, renewing the bias-up signal.

Gap-up-and go got-up-and-went. This morning's likeliest scenario was to gap up and extend through the bias environment. An exception could develop by opening within yesterday's range. Which the 3017.50 opening print did, but only by a few ticks and only overlapping yesterday's opening bar. Easily dismissed. But it wasn't dismissed. No buy signal triggered as post-open action collapsed. The second likeliest scenario was to react up from yesterday's "lower prior highs" around 3011.00. But that was recognized only as resistance by a bounce. And the bounce failed. Another bounce from under 2990.00 touched the 3000.50 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. Now late no-bias has triggered, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2975.50 bias-down signal. It's already being tested by 5 ticks. Having tested the bias-up target, too, a timely no-bias would have put into an offsetting test of the 2959.75 bias-down target. That's possible, but not required since the signal triggered late.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3005.50 3001.00 ...would target 3020.75 3016.25 Bias-down: under 2985.50 2981.25 ...would target 2964.25 2960.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: TODAY'S MARKET WRAP IS 30 MINUTES EARLY AT 3:03 ET. The offsetting test of this morning's 2975.50 bias-down signal was probed by 10 points, coming to within 5 points of the 2959.75 bias-down target. Oversold RSIs there will require an eventual retest. Meanwhile, its reaction has fulfilled potential up to the 3000.00 area. Along the way, a momentary knee-jerk reaction to another China sanctions story fell no deeper than the usual 3-minute attention span of counter-trend sponsorship. The target area is also resistance at this afternoon's 3001.00 bias-up signal. Its test just held to trigger late no-bias. Backing-and-filling has room down to the 2981.00 bias-down signal, but would encounter support at 2984.25.

Wednesday's open was reacting to a new Globex trend extreme at 3035.00, having recovered from attacking 2983.00 overnight. The pre-open reaction continued through the 3017.50 open, falling 52 points through overnight lows to 2965.50. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding, along with the afternoon's 3001.00 bias-up signal, as no-bias trending extended higher to test 3032.00 through the close. Extending even higher post-close attacked 3040.00. Reversing the gap up was Wednesday's least likely scenario. But failing to hold lower prior highs would mean something more substantial and universally surprising was underway. That's how its reversal can be so productive. Similarly, not yet correcting Wednesday afternoon's no-bias trending was unusual. That's why the balance of the afternoon extended sharply higher -- it probably didn't develop just so the final hour could range sideways. Trending up substantially during Wednesday's final hour doesn't affect the traction Wednesday afternoon's buyers had gained. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's high, and entering the final hour higher, suggests that buying will define Thursday morning. Gapping up isn't necessary to fulfill the setup, but it's usually done. Having trended up into Wednesday's close, gapping down under its 2993.00 afternoon low on Thursday could form a session-long decline. The rally otherwise remains intact. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3043.25 3039.00 ...would target 3056.25 3052.00 Bias-down: under 3021.75 3017.50 ...would target 3006.50 3002.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.