Real Time Day Trading Signals - 06-05-2015
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s) Through the prior close... Overnight action''s new info... If, then... First Trade... Weekend Wall of Worry. Opening above 2096.00 wasn''t just the likeliest path higher. It was probably also the only path higher. At least, the only path to avoid fresh lows. So, the open''s attack on 2096.00 was reversed down sharply to the 2086.25 pre-open low, and then to 2083.50. That lower low also tested this morning''s 2084.00 bias-down target. And held it. A bounce limit was violated above 2088.25, and the 2089.25 bias-down signal was recovered. Its recovery tested 2096.00. 2096.00''s recovery is no longer the only path higher. Having tested both bias-down parameters, not triggering the 2089.25 bias-down signal has put into play tests of both bias-up parameters, 2098.50 and 2104.25. Back under the 2089.25 bias-down signal at 10:30 would invalidate its 10:15 recovery. And oversold RSIs at the 2083.50 low would come back into play. Otherwise, sellers may be marginalized for the day. A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap. Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) 30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))Pre-Open Day Trading Bias - 7:39 AM
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o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Dropping Wednesday night to test 2100.00 was recovered to attack 2108.00 before Thursday''s open. Dropping aggressively held the overnight low and recovered to attack 2112.00. That bounce also failed, but this time dropping through the noon hour to 2091.25. Anxiousness ahead of the noon hour ended the drop, but a bounce to 2097.00 held the 2091.25 low before the close. The cash session close barely recovered to hold last Tuesday''s 2096.00 low.
Last-minute action had surged into the futures close to 2099.25. Narrow ranging held 2097.00 at Europe''s opens, which triggered a surge to attack 2103.00. Consolidating back down to 2097.00 has broken sharply, now bouncing from a touch of yesterday''s 2091.25 low.
Trending yesterday was unlikely ahead of the Employment Situation report. Now trending isn''t so inhibited. And this being a Friday, the morning''s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. So, before the bias is triggered, may be the last opportunity to avoid falling over a little ledge, let alone a last opportunity for new highs anytime soon. And before either opportunity, there is this morning''s Employment Situation report. Recovering through the open from a negative reaction could trend up sharply into the weekend. Otherwise, the next lower objective at 2078.75-2081.25 will be in-play.
No preliminary levels are suggested before Employment Situation reports.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Bias Levels - 8:45 AM
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2098.50
...would target 2106.00
2104.25
Bias-down: under 2091.00
2089.25
...would target 2085.75
2084.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Stock Market Opening Strategy - 10:24 AM
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Tonight's Day Trading Plan - 12:02 PM
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2098.50
...would target 2106.00
2104.25
Bias-down: under 2189.50
2087.75
...would target 2183.00
2081.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Daily Spot... Euro's unfinished business above. - 2:35 PM
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Thursday''s flat close around 1.1250 did not fulfill the required eventual third higher close that was put into play by the prior two sessions. That unfinished business outstanding did not prevent plunging to 1.1050 in reaction to Friday''s Employment Situation report. This is where the eventual third higher close requirement can be most relevant, by knowing Friday''s reaction down is likely only temporary. Back above 1.1210 would signal the rally having resumed. Extending first under 1.1070 would undermine the near-term recovery potential.
Another drop to fresh lows at 1162.00 keeps alive at least the 1158.50 target, if not also the low 1150''s. Being a new trend extreme on a Friday, rallying immediately Monday would likely fail. By the same token, extending down immediately to fulfill the target could be very durable.
Probing under the 16.35 target area''s lower-end Friday, after having held its test Thursday, does put into play a retest of prior lows under 15.25. Closing above 16.35 Monday would invalidate the Friday''s break.
Friday''s reaction to the Employment Situation report triggered a plunge that quickly fulfilled the likely retest of Wednesday''s 149-09 low. The spike down to 149-00 was recovered to 15-20, but the afternoon drifted back down toward Wednesday''s low.
Extending Thursday''s 58.75 sell signal into fresh lows overnight testing 56.85 was retraced on bullish OPEC news. Heightened prospects of a rate hike inhibited much more than just ranging narrowly around unchanged.
Friday''s ineffectual pessimism is more bullish than bearish. Gapping down and spending the entire session in negative territory could have extended down into per-weekend illiquidity. not trending down is not a buy signal, but it does make any initial strength Monday credible for extending higher.