NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A At some point, even the strongest-handed buyers will let weak-handed sellers have the lower price that convinces them to buy. And the delay in testing 2426.50 would likely probe lower to 2424.25 or 2421.25. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.Pre-Open Market Bias - 7:53 AM
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Market Opening Thoughts - 10:56 AM
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Tonight's Day Trading Plan - 11:59 AM
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Bias Summary - 4:32 PM
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Tomorrow's Day Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Bias-down avoided, struggling to exploit it.
The overnight test of the 2426.50 bias-down signal is clearly relevant. Piercing it by only an errant tick triggered the next bounce in an otherwise single-minded overnight decline. That 3-point bounce reacted down post-open, but stopped optimistically short of touching the pre-open low, and the bias-down target.
Was the single-minded overnight decline done? The post-open dip recovered to attack the 2432.00 bias-down signal as resistance. Then it was tested by 3 ticks. Another reaction down was recovered to fresh highs at 2434.25. Meanwhile, 2432.00 was recovered at 10:15 to trigger "no-bias."
All of the chipping away at 2432.00 into and out of 10:15 and 10:30 hasn't produced a break higher. In fact, 2431.00 was just touched. Again. Perhaps that dip only reflects anxiousness as a potential terror attack is reported at Notre Dame. Perhaps a similar inhibition has been preventing a recovery, since there were earlier reports from London Bridge.
TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2435.75
2435.00
...would target
2440.75
2440.00
Bias-down: under
2428.75
2428.00
...would target
2423.25
2422.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Tuesday afternoon's bias environment began lapsing at 2:30 by surging to fresh post-open highs. Resistance at 2434.25 was quickly probed up to 2435.75. Nothing substantial, and the final hour's entry didn't budge any higher. Here's why: the market collapsed through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window, and into the 3.37 position-squaring window. The balance of the session ranged sideways at 2428.00.
Every attempt to break lower intraday would have had one objective in-play -- to retest the morning's 2426.50 bias-down target that had held the overnight drop. It would have easily held if tested post-open, instead of only being attacked to within 2 ticks. Now its test would likely probe lower to compensate for the delay. Candidates continue to be 2424.25 and 2421.50.
Only gapping up Wednesday above 2434.25-2435.75 would be credible for marginalizing the pullback. Any less opening strength would be likelier to reverse back down to fresh lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2435.75
2435.00
...would target
2440.75
2440.00
Bias-down: under
2427.25
2426.50
...would target
2422.25
2421.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.