Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Relentless Overnight Trending into Friday's 3069.00 open attracted reinforcements up to 3071.00 through the open. And gapping up back above Thursday afternoon's 3044.50 high triggered a session-long rally. Simply by not confirming through the open, both setups' bearish signals would have signaled. Which developed anyway. Thursday afternoon's PM Traction setup launched a Friday that duplicated a strongly trending Thursday. Reacting up from the morning's attack on 2990.00 retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the post-open drop to test 3044.50. Its reaction down to the afternoon's 2971.00 low was also retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the post-open drop back up to 3036.00. Another similarity between the two bounces is that neither gained traction for its effort. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's open gapped down and soon pierced Friday's late low by 6 ticks down to 2969.50. Its reaction tested the opening range's 2996.00 high, and the range formed a Symmetrical Triangle through midnight. Then the drop suddenly resumed, trending down sharply to attack 2924.00. Rallying after Europe's opens attacked the earlier Triangle's apex up to 2982.00. RSIs diverged negatively there and its reaction has fallen to 2958.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday's low had reacted to the 50{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the upleg from May's low. As we discussed at the time, 50{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracements aren't always influential, and their influence is rarely durable. If a leg's 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement doesn't hold, then its 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement becomes likely. That is 2930.75, and a confluence of other pattern objectives fine-tunes that to 2931.00-2933.00. All of which is met by the overnight attack on 2924.00. But only overnight, so its reversal influence is also likely temporary until retested intraday. Already rallying this morning could launch a complete recovery back to last week's highs, whether or not kicked-off by a Gap-and-go (opening back above the 2996.00 earlier Globex low) or Isolation (spending the morning above Friday's 2971.00 low) setup. A session-long decline setup would be considered if the open tests of breaks Friday's 2971.00 low. An opening thrust that tests 2971.00 or last night's 2977.00-2992.00 Symmetrical Triangle's range could also be predictive. Ending today beyond either end of the 2902.00-2999.00 range will probably maintain the decline or to reject it. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2990.75 would likely also exceed the 2998.75 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal.

Not so fast. The 2924.00 low had recovered up to 2982.00. Ranging sideways persisted through the open -- dipping post-open to 2952.50 and bouncing up to 2979.00. More important, Friday's 2971.00 afternoon low was being overlapped at 9:45. So, the bearish session-long decline setup, already sub-optimal for spanning the weekend, was neither triggered nor rejected. Extending the post-open bounce from 2952.50 go to within 1 tick of this morning's 2998.75 bias-down target. That's resistance, and it held. This is a renewed bias-down environment. Its upper-end should be resisted by the 3016.00 bias-down signal if tested. Meanwhile, a pullback to 2977.50 is reacting back up to 2999.00. Exiting the bias window above the 2998.75 bias-down target would suggest that sellers gained no traction. Extending higher shouldn't be delayed. Otherwise, entering the noon hour back under Friday's 2971.00 low would be likely to retest overnight lows.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3027.50 3015.00 ...would target 3040.50 3028.00 Bias-down: under 3001.25 2989.75 ...would target 2987.75 2975.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Probing positive territory. This morning's 2998.75 bias-down target's resistance was attacked, and tested, and probed up to 3011.50. One more dip into the bias environment exit finally launched another upleg through the noon hour. Its 3038.50 high probed Friday's 3024.00-3028.00 closes. Friday's closes are now being tested as support, including a 2025.00 sell signal that would target 3010.00 or 3004.00. Back above 3034.25 would at least target fresh intraday highs at 3041.25-3043.00. As for the ongoing decline from last week's highs, nothing requires a credible recovery to extend any higher today. Closing back in negative territory but above Thu-Fri 2985.25/2971.00 lows -- preferably above 2998.75 -- would suggest a lot of selling pressure had been expended without gaining traction for the effort. Extending higher this afternoon anyway would suggest follow-through coming, albeit likely only temporary.

Although skeptical that Thursday's plunge ended the bear market rally, I had expected even a pullback to probe lower lows at 2931.00-2933.00. Sunday night's gap down eventually extended to attack 2924.00. Recovering to greet Monday's open back up at 2966.00 soon resumed its recovery. Knee-jerk reaction to an afternoon Fed intervention headline produced the session high testing 3068.00 at the afternoon bias environment exit. It immediately began retracing the headline reaction, and bounced back up to 3063.00-3065.00 through the close. Just closing back above 3041.50-3043.00 suggests that sellers were weak-handed. Initially breaking lower Tuesday or gapping down would likely recover if held above 2999.00. Deeper wouldn't necessarily be bearish, but not as reliable for recovering, let alone for resuming a recovery of last week's collapse. Monday morning I announced a new indicator I've researched to the point of being able to apply it live in the chaRTroom. Be sure to watch the Wrap's beginning for a description of how it located two late-afternoon entries and their targets totaling 23 points. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3078.50 3066.00 ...would target 3093.50 3081.00 Bias-down: under 3061.75 3049.25 ...would target 3041.75 3029.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.