Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Although skeptical that Thursday's plunge ended the bear market rally, I had expected its recovery to be preceded by first completing a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of May's last upleg. Its 2931.00-2933.00 objective was tested at Sunday night's attack on 2924.00. Reversing to greet Monday's open back up at 2966.00 soon resumed its recovery. The afternoon's Fed intervention headline triggered a knee-jerk reaction to session highs testing 3068.00. Its reaction soon fulfilled the minimum likely 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} headline retracement, and bounced back up to 3063.00-3065.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday's late bounce extended higher without delay, more sharply on headlines of a massive Trump infrastructure proposal. Testing 3113.50 through midnight was retraced down to 3080.00 through Europe's opens. That may have been only a correction as 3107.00 is now being tested. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Recovering back up to Thursday's 3086.00-3107.00 opening range helps to confirm that closing yesterday back above 3041.50-3043.00 had formed a position of strength. But it doesn't yet prove today will extend any higher. The position of strength might be exploited initially to help absorb a morning pullback. Nothing new in Fed Chair Powell's scheduled remarks this morning could disappoint buyers -- not all of last night's rally was in reaction to Trump's infrastructure proposal. And now the last night's rally provides even more room to expend selling before threatening the recovery's chart. The opening print will tell us where gap-to-gap support lies in case of initially breaking lower. Extending higher initially isn't any likelier, and soon runs into its own gap-to-gap resistance that will try to derail the recovery if tested. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3099.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3081.00 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3074.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3066.00 bias-up signal.

It's headline retracement time. Optimism ahead of this morning's Powell testimony had combined with word of a massive infrastructure spend, driving price up to 3113.00 by midnight. Its correction back down to the support of this morning's 3801.00 bias-up target was already recovering ahead of surprising COVID treatment news. Its headline triggered a surge up to 3156.25.

That's within 11 ticks of last Friday's 3159.00 gap up above all prior highs, requiring eventual retracement. Just the proximity to 3159.00 is resistance. It reacted down to the 3141.00 opening print.

3141.00 was only probed by 1 point, and not until after 10:15. Closing yesterday above 3041.50-3043.00 had created a position of strength that made a post-open pullback likely from whatever opening level. I was willing to give post-open strength a benefit of the doubt, but the post-open sloppy range's whipsaw never confirmed a buy signal.

There are two expectations for a sloppy first hour range. One, that subsequent trending is likely to be retraced entirely. Also, not yet trending in the morning would likely trend sharply in the afternoon. So much for this afternoon. The open's range collapsed 70 points down to 3063.50. Testing this morning's 3066.00 bias-up signal as support during the bias-up environment should define the window's lower-end. Its reaction up to 3111.50 is now trying to retrace the open's 3124.00-3142.00 range. Extending lower after the bias window lapses at 11:30 would next target 3041.50-3043.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3137.25 3125.25 ...would target 3151.00 3139.00 Bias-down: under 3110.75 3098.75 ...would target 3096.25 3084.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Today's pre-close Market Wrap is a half-hour early at 3:03 ET. I'm away from the screens for the last half-hour. Last night's 100-point rally is impressive. This morning's 93-point collapse is more impressive. The latter took only 2 hours, and maintained positive territory. If sellers can't exploit that much selling pressure to at least turn the market negative, then they're probably not going to retake control. This is how rallies that entrench their uptrend refuel themselves. Not only creating room to expend selling pressure without damaging the chart, but then expending it. To a shallower degree, the same timing window was already vulnerable to containing a pullback, likely to recover for originating from its position of strength. None of which remains relevant. Been there, done that. Meanwhile, that's quite a shock to the system. It doesn't require being absorbed, but being so far removed from either extreme inhibits sponsorship from even trying. Fluctuating within this morning's range could persist into tomorrow's noon hour. Fortunately, the wide range still offers plenty of room just to fluctuate.

Rallying 100 points overnight from Monday's 3056.00 close didn't change whether Monday's close above 3041.50-3043.00 had formed a position of strength. That made Tuesday morning more vulnerable to a dip. The huge overnight rally made that dip more vulnerable to being deep. The first hour ranged sideways up to its 3141.00 open, then collapsed back down to 3060.00 where simultaneously oversold RSIs require an eventual retest. Piercing the morning's 3066.00 bias-up signal only momentarily not only held, but reacted up sharply. Flat-to-higher ranging through a noN-bias afternoon reached 3130.00, and slid again down to 3092.00 before the close.

[Note: Market Wrap was held 30 minutes early, and I was away from the screens for the last half-hour. I'll update this post if anything influential developed before the close.]

Last Friday's 3159.00 gap up above all prior highs requires being filled, as gaps beyond an ongoing trend always require. Last week's Island requires being retested eventually, as Islands always are -- usually retracing at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back into the Island's range, which is 3188.00 or 3197.50. Nothing requires holding the Island's resistance, or extending through it. Meanwhile, nothing requires trending Wednesday morning. Nothing required trending Tuesday afternoon, as the morning's shock to the system was absorbed, and the wide range inhibited sponsorship from even trying. The shock will have dulled by Wednesday's noon hour, and a pattern may have been carved out of the range. Powell's second day of Congressional testimony might continue to inhibit strong-handed sponsorship, too. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3138.00 3126.00 ...would target 3154.00 3142.00 Bias-down: under 3111.00 3099.00 ...would target 3093.25 3081.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.