Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's narrowly ranging session began not very differently than how Friday's narrowly ranging session had ended. Each had failed to exploit early attempts to extend under support. But buyers failed exploited that hesitation too late to maintain their own rally efforts. So, Monday's rejected Globex-flip setup produced an 11-point rally from 2892.00-2903.00. But the probe above Friday's 2900.00 late high failed. Ultimately the morning's 2892.00 low was attacked -- attacked but not broken, maintaining the ongoing range. And once again, 2896.00-2898.00 held intraday probes above it. Overnight action's new info... Initially bouncing back up to 2900.00 resistance, its retracement was back to unchanged at 2895.00 by midnight. The reversal extended at Europe's opens, probing under Monday's lows down to 2889.00. Then came dovish comments from ECB Chair Mario Draghi that triggered a surge to 2908.00. Its correction formed a Falling Wedge that has broken higher to 2912.50, probing between last Monday and Tuesday's 2910.00-2915.75 highs. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The ongoing range's likely resolution remains down, unless the open almost literally explodes higher, maintains its gains, and then extends higher. Anything shallower, briefer, or slower may be only noise. Suddenly trending from a standing stop doesn't often extend. Also, beakouts are difficult after already expending a lot of energy just to test the range's upper-end. They're also difficult to reverse if at least maintained through open. At least Thursday-Monday's highs and 2896.00-2898.00 can offer support to stage another rally attempt if this morning's surge fails. Meanwhile, Draghi's comments have pushed the Euro lower, testing critical support for my bottoming pattern, well-timed for tomorrow's FOMC policy statement to smash Draghi's lob back at him, and presumably also reversing this morning's ES surge. But even if we knew that would be the FOMC's response, there remains potential for actually probing last week's highs. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2907.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2906.25 bias-up target at 10:15 and to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2912.00-2913.25. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2900.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2898.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Big objective met, too. Two more thrusts followed this morning's Market Tour and took price back to last Tuesday's 2915.75. Ranging narrowly sideways down to 2912.50 formed a setup that made a post-open dip likely to recover and to resume the rally. The post-open dip's attack on 2910.00 was reversed to attack 2915.75. With the wind at its back, a China trade headline triggered a 16-point spike up attacking 2930.00. A higher high soon fulfilled the next higher objective at 2932.00 by 2 ticks.

The objective's influence has formed a Double Top pattern, which doesn't often reverse the trend. At least, not immediately, and not without first probing fresh highs. Even then, a topping pattern would be likely to form first.

2932.00 is being retested now after attacking a 2926.00 sell signal. A fresh high would target 2934.75 and be vulnerable to reversing down. Meanwhile, back under 2927.25 would signal momentum already reversing down. Being the product of a trade headline, at least a correction of the spike up to 2917.50 is likely, if not also retracing its 2914.00 origin.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2925.00 2930.00 ...would target 2931.75 2936.75 Bias-down: under 2914.75 2920.00 ...would target 2907.50 2912.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS TODAY FOR THE LAST HOUR, MARKET WRAP WILL BE ONE HOUR EARLY AT 2:33 ET. Room for noise above the 2932.00 objective at 2934.75 was tested up to 2936.50 before the morning's bias environment lapsed. By then, its reaction down had triggered a sell signal targeting 2922.50 and 2920.00. They were tested going into and coming out of the noon hour. The lower target is also this afternoon's bias-down signal, which did not trigger after falling 17 points from the morning's high. That's a lot of selling pressure to expend, and yet not to have left positive territory. Lower lows isn't altogether unlikely, but it's not at all required. The pullback also corrected the morning's China headline reaction, which was likely, and is now done. Extending down under the bias-down signal would be more credible when the bias environment is lapsing. Extending down is not required. There's still plenty of room to fluctuate this afternoon, whether attacking the 2936.50 high or further retracing the surge from 2910.00. Neither is required, but not much more is likely after so much volatility just ahead of tomorrow's FOMC events.

Resolving up from the week-old range wasn't likely without "almost literally exploding higher." It's always interesting to learn what the catalyst will be. Like belts AND suspenders, Tuesday's detonation took no chances for a failure, and found two catalysts. The first was dovish comments from ECB Chief Mario Draghi. His rhetoric was timed perfectly to a test of the morning's bias-down signal down to 2889.00. A 27-point rally from overnight lows greeted Tuesday's open back at last Tuesday's 2915.75 high, where a post-open dip testing 2910.75 was expected to resume the rally. Perfect timing again by China trade headlines leveraged the reaction into a  17-point surge. Extending another 2-3 points fulfilled the rally's 2932.00 objective by 2 ticks. A brief probe to fresh highs at 2936.50 fulfilled room for noise above a Double Top pattern that had formed, where RSIs finally diverged negatively. The morning's high launched a 2-hour 17-point pullback testing 2919.50. A confluence of support there was easily held, while sponsorship subsided with Wednesday afternoon's looming FOMC events. The balance of the session round-tripped up to 2929.00 and back down to 2919.50. There is no "unfinished business" above requiring a retest. "Lower prior highs" from the past week's range could be attacked down to 2902.25-2906.75 just as a natural pullback overnight and/or Wednesday morning. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2925.00 2930.00 ...would target 2931.00 2936.00 Bias-down: under 2912.50 2917.75 ...would target 2904.75 2910.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.