Real Time Day Trading Signals - 06-29-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Friday''s early dip under prior lows down to 2091.25 wasn''t probed until the noon hour. The delay was made up by probing much deeper to 2086.25, fulfilling the afternoon bias-down target just as it was being triggered. The balance of the afternoon firmed back up to 2096.00, waiting too long to gain traction for the effort.

Overnight action''s new info...
Greece''s next phase began with its defiant announcement after Friday''s close, and continued through the weekend as the target of equally defiant announcements. Sunday night''s open gapped down 32 points and spiked down another 10 to 2054.00. Trending higher overnight eventually touched 2079.00. The latest reaction down 10 points has bounced back up to 2073.00

If, then...
Price has trended up relentlessly since Sunday night''s open gapped down. Exactly this behavior would not be bullish if duplicated at Monday''s open. But gapping down no lower than 2080.00 could still base before entering the noon hour in rally mode. Gapping down without recovering 2080.00 would be due to another round of selling pressure intending to influence the post-open environment, if not also resuming the decline.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2080.00 would be likely also to recover the 2082.25 bias-down target to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above only 2073.00 would be likely to retest the 2079.00 pre-open high (assuming that''s still the pre-open high) before resuming the decline. Exiting the open under 2073.00 would be much less likely to bounce before extending back down.

Post-open action duplicates Globex open. Mistake.

Sunday night''s gap down immediately extended lower, and just as immediately began recovering. Overnight action is one big uptrend from 2054.00 to 2079.00.

That was the pattern that on Saturday I cautioned against forming post-open. Tracking it overnight made it all the more bearish to duplicate intraday.

Post-open action did it, anyway. While the preliminary 2073.00 level did hold as support, the opening 15 minutes of volatility trended up. And while the critical 2080.00 level was probed, the 2082.25 bias-down target was touched as resistance.

The consolidation off of 2082.25 was overlapping 2080.00. But the bullish scenario calls for a consolidation SUPPORTED by 2080.00. We can''t dismiss the under-performance, but we can keep the door open:

Rallying above 2080.00 after the top of the hour would be credible for extending higher. Exiting the bias environment above 2082.25 would be credible for extending higher.

This morning''s action could marginalize sellers by not recovering from a dip to 2071.75, but there would be no predictable path down, only the likelihood of retesting the overnight low and extending the decline.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2083.50
2075.00
...would target 2089.25
2081.00
Bias-down: under 2074.75
2066.50
...would target 2068.75
2060.25
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down on Greece''s weekend events fulfilled the minimum objective of testing the 1.1050 prior low. That was retraced entirely back into positive territory attacking 1.1300. That was a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} swing into positive territory from the overnight low, suggesting an inflection point where either the recovery accelerates or else fails miserably.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gappiing up sharply Sunday night in reaction to Greece''s developments probed $4 above the 1183.70 resistance that has defined prior swings. Its complete retracement back to unchanged at 1173.50 bounced back into positive territory through the afternoon, retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back to overnight highs -- but not yet invalidating the 1158.50 target that remains in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night''s gap up and follow-through were very shallow considering the reactions and other swings developing elsewhere on the Greece news. But that muted response is entirely appropriate for waiting out Gold''s deeper issues so that both can rally in unison. The afternoon''s dip back toward Friday''s low was essentially an inside day with no new traction.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up back above last Monday''s 149-24 close that had been recovered once was itself worthy of some follow-through. Gapping up also above what had been the 150-08 buy signal to a 4-point gain at 151-22 was difficult to maintain. In fact, it reacted down to 149-07. That was recovered to 150-26, where a second consecutive higher close above 150-08 would signal a new rally leg underway. It would get a benefit of the doubt, but still be suspicious if not also above 151-22 -- and meanwhile, simply trending back down to 147-24 is likelier.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The ongoing retracement extended deeper at Sunday night''s open, still stopping short of forming any distributive pattern that would offer a sell signal and target. Still monitoring for a buy signal, which is unlikely the first day following a gap down.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Sunday night helped to reject Friday''s retest of 2.77 support. But closing above 2.83 is still required to signal momentum actually reversing up. It was probed intraday by a penny, but still being overlapped through the afternoon.