Real Time Day Trading Signals - 07-09-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the i difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Gapping down Wednesday to its 2062.50 bias-down target was extended lower through an eventful day, marked by an unprecedented NYSE halt and unaccommodating FOMC Minutes. It was an inside day, which often makes the pessimism ineffectual. But the final hour hovered optimistically above Tuesday''s lows after piercing Tuesday''s 2037.25 pivotal low.

Overnight action''s new info...
Almost the mirror image of Tuesday night''s pattern, last night''s Globex action has only trended up. Yesterday''s entire session has been retraced, touching its opening blip-up 2061.75.

If, then...
Having trended down into yesterday''s close, maintaining a gap up above the afternoon''s 2053.25 high could form a "session-long rally" setup. The gap up''s threshold will be yesterday morning''s 2058.00 high if today''s open were still probing above it. In either case, maintaining the gap up would leave unfinished business below, since touching Tuesday''s pivotal low requires testing its 2035.00 actual low, too. In fact, that would be the objective of not maintaining a sufficient gap up -- which can become more difficult when overnight action has trended relentlessly. Otherwise, a session-long rally would target the range''s 2072.50-2076.00 upper-end.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2058.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2052.25 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. There are no other relevant preliminary signals, other than the "session-long rally" setup.

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Gapping up above yesterday afternoon''s 2053.25 bias environment high would have formed a session-long rally setup. That threshold was raised to the morning''s 2058.00 bias environment high, once it was probed. Then yesterday''s 2063.75 pre-open high became part of the mix -- not as consequential, but relevant.

All of which were exceeded before the open.

A blip-down to 2063.75 surged to a fresh high at 2068.00, which reacted back down to overlap 2063.75 at 9:45. Maintaining its recovery would have been optimal to confirming the session-long rally. But the open had maintained its gap up above yesterday morning''s 2058.00 bias environment high.

So, session-long rally gets a benefit of the doubt. The next opportunity to signal otherwise is at 11:30 upon the bias environment lapsing.

A sell signal had triggered already under 2064.00, with potential to 2058.00. Giving the session-long rally a benefit of the doubt didn''t prevent extending down to 2058.00 -- or lower to 2053.75.

But, session-long rally still gets a benefit of the doubt.

Back above 2058.00 (being tested now) would start to signal momentum reversing up. Its minimum consequence is to retest the downleg''s 2068.00 origin. There''s no reason for that during a session-long rally other than to extend much higher.

Otherwise, extending the post-open drop would next target 2051.00. And this late in the session, that would probably not recover 2058.00 by 11:30. Which would instead signal the session-long rally had inverted.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2066.00
2058.75
...would target 2071.00
2064.00
Bias-down: under 2058.00
2051.00
...would target 2052.25
2045.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday continued reacting down from Wednesday''s attack on the 1.1120 bounce limit, back to what had been the low''s 1.1000 bounce limit. At least a retest of Tuesday''s 1.0935 opening gap is required, potentially resuming the decline.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday night''s reaction down from the 1163.00 buy signal was recovered to gap up Thursday, but only to overlap 1163.00 and to avoid triggering it. The signal remains valid, along with Thursday''s 1167.00 high.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending the bounce into Thursday morning tested 15.35-15.45 resistance. One more shallow corrective dip should recover to launch a rally if the bottoming pattern''s timing remains valid.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sliding Thursday into and out of the noon hour''s auction tested the pullback''s minimum 151-28 pullback limit. Probing under it to at least 151-16 was deep enough that closing back above 151-28 would suggest the pullback had ended, so the eventual third higher close above 154-14 could be produced.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The recent decline could not extend any deeper than Tuesday''s test of 50.40-50.55 while still being considered potentially only a temporary correction. Wednesday did not extend lower, and Thursday tested Wednesday''s 53.00 highs Back above 54.30 would be credible for launching a rally, or else new lows will become likely.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Thursday''s EIA report was not greeted from a position of strength, as Wednesday''s fresh low close confirmed Tuesday''s breakout, requiring at least a third eventual lower close. The open''s firming was reversed down sharply on the news to test 2.64, but that recovered back above the morning''s high to test 2.73. This is a "pivot reversal" setup that often extends the reversal up immediately, or immediately after retesting its low. Closing lower would indicate a much more substantial decline is underway.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2055.25
2048.00
...would target 2060.75
2053.75
Bias-down: under 2044.00
2037.00
...would target 2038.50
2031.25
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.