Real Time Day Trading Signals - 07-23-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Testing the decline''s 2105.50 target overnight had fulfilled a lot of selling pressure. Probing lower pre-open to the targets''s noise range down to 2103.00 only stretched the rubber band so Wednesday''s open could surge to 2112.00. Triggering a "synthetic bias-up" didn''t prevent returning back down to 2103.00-2105.50. Its next bounce failed, too, right after buyers had barely gained traction. Firming into the close recovered 2105.50 by a couple of points.

Overnight action''s new info...
The late firming extended higher through the Globex open to eventually test 2113.50. It was retested at Europe''s opens, but held. Price action since then has trended back down, mot recently testing 2108.50 and reacting up 2-1/2 points.

If, then...
Buyers gaining traction yesterday afternoon was confirmed by the higher recovery after dipping back down to 2103.00-2105.50. Having gained traction, gapping up is not necessary to resume the rally this morning. But that traction must be exploited this morning by trending up. And gapping down would undermine that traction, potentially also resuming the decline.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2112.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2111.0 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2108.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2103.00 would be likely to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal.

Attraction above is in-play.

If a dip had to extend so far as to touch 2105.50, then recovering it through 9:45 was needed to reinstate yesterday''s late rally to overnight highs. But just failing to hold 2107.25 all but required testing 2105.50, and the setup was triggered.

Next.

The only remaining bullish scenario would be to hold a test of the 2104.25 bias-down signal through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2111.00 bias-up signal. Three touches of 2104.25 held, triggering no-bias. And now the reaction up just touched 2109.50,

That''s positive territory, and it''s more evidence that yesterday afternoon''s buyers gained at least enough traction to absorb dips. But not trending higher throughout this morning would be greater evidence that any upside traction is lost.

Exiting the bias environment in rally mode would help to reinforce attractions to this week''s other unfinished business above, beginning at 2115.00 and extending to at least 2128.25.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2109.75
2103.00
...would target 2116.00
2109.25
Bias-down: under 2102.25
2095.50
...would target 2096.00
2089.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday''s rejection of Tuesday''s probe above 1.0920 didn''t prevent rallying overnight to gap up Thursday above Tuesday''s 1.0977 high up to 1.0260 1.1026. There''s still room up to 1.0475 1.1047 without yet signaling the trend has reversed up.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially bouncing overnight set-up a test of 1100.00 resistance, which held intraday Thursday. Resuming the decline would still next target 1176.50.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trading flat-to-lower Thursday continued avoiding fresh lows, but the pattern is still likely to probe fresh lows before any rally effort would be credible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The rally extended Thursday to fulfill the next higher attraction, filling the gap outstanding back up to 154-00. A fresh high close remains in-play and likely to test 154-20, especially so long as pullbacks hold 153-18 as support.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The decline extended Thursday to fulfill the 48.25 target. Closing back above 49.30 would start to signal momentum reversing up.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Thursday ahead the EIA report then blipped-up to 2.95 and collapsed back down to the 2.83 pullback limit, which needs to hold to maintain further upside potential.