Real Time Day Trading Signals - 07-27-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Despite Friday''s 2097.00 open begin essentially flat with Thursday''s close, it spiked down immediately 6 points back to Thursday''s lows. Closing Thursday under 2099.25had put into play 2077.00 with room for noise down to 2073.00, and they were tested down to 2070.00. Firming through Friday''s final hour was still overlapping the 2073.00-2077.00 target, not decisively holding it or breaking it.

Overnight action''s new info...
Sunday night''s firm open eventually attacked this morning''s 2081.00 bias-up signal to within 1-2 ticks. But selling pressure had become evident already ahead of Europe''s opens, perhaps concerned by China''s renewed crashing. Trending down since then has now begun probing under Friday''s low down to 2067.00 -- just 2 points 2065.75 -- just 3 ticks from this morning''s bias-down target.

If, then...
In the absence of gapping up, even the most bullish scenario was still likely to probe fresh lows. Gapping down too much or simply not recovering quickly would indicate that late retail sellers were being joined by a new round of stronger hands distributing. And if the decline is extending this morning, then today''s eventual drop could overshadow Friday''s.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2070.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2071.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2060.00 would be likely also not to recover the 2065.00 bias-down target, renewing the bias-down signal and next targeting 2051.00. Exiting the open above 2077.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Post-open dip recovered entirely. Pre-open dip, not so much.

The overnight slide to 2065.00 had formed a Descending Triangle which was presumed to be preparing a break lower. Which it did, pre-open, to test 2062.00. Momentarily firming into the open was rejected by a deeper plunge to 2056.50.

A bounce there was retraced entirely back to the 2063.50 opening print before the first half-hour had ended. That price action qualified as an early recovery attempt. The recovery has since retraced the pre-open Descending Triangle''s 2069.00 high.

The continued recovery has formed an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. All of which remains in negative territory. Recovering above the open this early doesn''t leave much room for another dip without resuming the decline.

Back above the 2071.75 bias-down signal would get a big benefit of the doubt that the trend is reversing up -- at least for near-term bottoming to form. Entering the noon hour back under 2065.00 and 2063.50 would suggest the decline never ended, and that 2051.00 is in-play.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2074.50
2067.50
...would target 2080.75
2073.00
Bias-down: under 2067.75
2060.00
...would target 2061.50
2054.50
Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night''s rally soared past the 1.1045 bounce limit to test 1.1120 by almost 40 pips. Closing back under 1.1075 would target 1.0990 just as a pullback. Closing under 1.1045 would have been likely to trend down sharply to at least retest recent lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight testing of the 1100.00 bounce limit reacted down before Monday''s open to retrace the post-close gain above Friday''s close back to the 10880.00 area. Another bounce was restrained by 1100.00 Monday, keeping the door open to reversing back down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging Monday suggests a recovery could be delayed by retesting last week''s lows. But immediately rallying would be more credible by gapping up (i.e. rallying already overnight).

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks helped Sunday night''s rally extend to the 155-26 target. There is no requirement to trend any higher, but reversing down requires closing under 154-00.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing under the 48.25 target that was met Thursday would have suggested the decline is extending to 44.25, except the session didn''t trend down. So, early trending Tuesday in either direction is likely to extend intraday.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Holding 2.77 support Monday didn''t attract sponsorship for a rally. Ignoring a second consecutive opportunity to break lower doesn''t prevent probing lower Tuesday. But hovering at support for so long does suggest that a break lower would be reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2074.50
2067.50
...would target 2080.75
2073.00
Bias-down: under 2067.75
2060.00
...would target 2071.50
2054.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.