Pre-Open Market Analysis

Previously:
On Tuesday night, the market rallied relentlessly, reaching 4425, but this upward momentum was halted by a hawkish FOMC headline. This news triggered a complete reversal, bringing the market back down to 4400, unchanged. The opening on Wednesday immediately triggered a buy signal at 4411, leading to a recovery and even surpassing previous levels to reach the target of 4455 in the afternoon bias window. However, during the last two hours, the market traded sideways and settled at 4442.

Overnight price points:
After discussing a higher target of 4474 in the Market Wrap, NVDA’s positive earnings report led to a surge after the market close, pushing the price to 4476. Despite a brief dip to 4465 during the Globex session, the market rebounded and extended the rally to 4485 during the opening of the European market. The market’s reaction later caused it to dip to new overnight lows at 4463 before bouncing back to 4476.

Catalysts:
The morning’s catalysts include the Durable Goods report before the market opens and pre-Powell anxiousness in the afternoon.

Setups/Patterns:
There’s a bearish Globex-flip pattern. Since Globex had tested Wednesday’s highs, if the market exits the first 15 minutes of Thursday’s trading below the range of 4465-4473 established during the Globex session, it could signal a downtrend for the morning.

Day Trading Post Open Bias Levels

Previously:
Following NVDA’s earnings announcement, there was a surge after the market closed, pushing the price up to 4476. This momentum extended to 4485 eventually, but the market trended downward leading into Thursday’s open. This downward trend tested fresh overnight lows.

New price points:
During the first 15 minutes of Thursday’s trading, the market fell below the range of 4465-4473 established during the Globex session. This triggered a bearish Globex-flip pattern, which already had an impact, causing the market to decline to 4429.

Catalysts:
The morning’s catalysts include the Durable Goods report before the market opens and pre-Powell anxiousness in the afternoon.

Setups/Patterns:
There’s a reverse bias and a tested bias-up pattern. Additionally, a bearish Globex-flip pattern is present, while the market is trending without a distinct bias.

Their influences:
At 10:15, the market tested but didn’t trigger the bias-up signal at 4458, leading to an offsetting test of the bias-down signal at 4438, which was just met. Given that Globex tested Wednesday’s highs, if the market exits the first 15 minutes of Thursday’s trading below the range of 4465-4473 established during the Globex session, it will have a bearish influence on the morning session. Similarly, probing below the 4438 bias-down signal during a neutral-bias window would require retracing it, potentially along with the 4449 print at 10:15.

Triggers/Tactics:
The market’s failure to maintain its momentum above the overnight highs during Thursday’s first 15 minutes weakened any morning rally efforts. Alternatively, the presence of a bearish Globex-flip pattern could exert a downward influence on the morning session. It’s worth noting that Wednesday’s unusual post-close reaction to NVDA’s earnings suggested the market might be overextended, and this is unlikely to be neutralized by a single morning pullback.

Alternative:
Limiting the bearish outlook to the morning, the market could bounce back to 4455, regardless of its final resolution. This rebound could occur as long as the market closes higher, paving the way for higher targets.

Levels:
UP: 4474, 4492, 4522…
DOWN: 4433, 4418, 4398.

Evening Bias Levels

Mid-Day Update

Previously:
Following NVDA’s earnings announcement, there was a surge after the market closed, pushing the price up to 4476. This momentum eventually extended to 4485. The market trended downward leading into Thursday’s open and tested fresh overnight lows. During the first 15 minutes of trading on Thursday, the market fell below the range of 4465-4473 established during the Globex session, triggering a bearish Globex-flip pattern.

New price points:
The influence of the bearish setup continued into the noon hour, with the market reaching 4407. Afterward, there was a bounce to 4424 during the noon hour, which is currently testing a fresh low at 4406.

Catalysts:
The morning’s catalysts include the Durable Goods report before the market opens and pre-Powell anxiousness in the afternoon.

Setups/Patterns:
There’s a no-bias situation and a tested bias-up pattern present.

Triggers/Tactics:
The influence of the bearish Globex-flip pattern persisted throughout the entire morning session, which is quite unusual. The no-bias trend was overwhelmed by strong sellers. While a full recovery is unlikely, the market is also unlikely to extend down to fresh lows during the pre-Powell anxiousness period. However, there is room for the market to firm up to some extent without gaining significant traction.

Alternative:
If the market were to extend downward regardless, it would encounter lower prior highs at 4395, but there isn’t much other nearby support.

Levels:
UP: 4474, 4492, 4522…
DOWN: 4433, 4418, 4398.

Session Wrap

Today’s price points:
The surge to 4476 and the subsequent high at 4485 on Wednesday were reversed as Thursday’s trading began. The opening minutes saw the market fall below the Globex open range, triggering a bearish Globex-flip. This influence continued into the noon hour at 4407. Although there was a bounce to 4424 during the noon hour, it eventually resolved downward, reaching 4380.

Catalysts:
Market movements are being influenced by Powell’s actions and the Consumer Sentiment.

Setups/Patterns:
Considering the “Friday Factors” – factors particular to the last trading day of the week.

Their influences:
On Fridays, weekend illiquidity introduces subtle differences in market behavior. For instance, the morning bias is more likely to persist into the noon hour, rather than just into it.

Premise:
The bearish Globex-flip from Thursday had an impact on the morning session, and its influence extended into the afternoon. Typically, this setup reasserts its bearish influence on the following morning. However, confirmation is needed during the first 15 minutes of Friday’s trading – even if only to anticipate the failure of a potential bounce. Such a bounce might be triggered by Powell’s speech and the possibility of Thursday afternoon’s pessimism being overly discounted. Without any additional bearish behavior during the first 15 minutes of Friday, a bounce becomes credible for an extension, assuming a bounce occurs.

Levels:
UP: 4474, 4492, 4522…
DOWN: 4433, 4418, 4398.