Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Tuesday night''s rally up to 1923.00 was reversed into the noon hour''s 1875.00 low. Despite still probing fresh lows so late in the noon hour, it launched a recovery back to the open''s 1918.00 high. Buyers gained traction for their efforts by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour''s high and then entering the final hour above the bias environment''s high. The final hour extended higher to 1943.00.

Overnight action''s new info...
Initially firming up to 1950.00 was retraced down to 1935.00 ahead of Europe''s opens. That enabled an actual rally leg to extend up to 1964.50. Its reaction down is attacking 1955.00.

If, then...
If not rejected at Thursday''s open, then yesterday''s buyers will be rewarded with control of this morning''s bias environment. And if not rejected going into the afternoon''s bias environment, this morning''s rally would be likely to extend. The overnight rally could be retraced to only a slightly positive starting point before rallying back to its 1964.50 high, with potential for extending up to 1986.00, 1996.00 and 2000.00.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1950.00 would be likely also to trigger the 1948.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1960.50 would be likely also to exceed the 1956.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1947.00 would start to signal the 1948.50 bias-up signal won''t trigger.

Probing overnight highs has yet to extend.

Regardless of whether the overnight rally were to resume immediately, or to pullback -- and regardless of whether that pullback were shallow, medium or deep before resuming the rally -- this morning''s bias environment was unlikely to trend down.

The open did immediately probe above the 1964.50 overnight high to 1969.25. Then it reacted down to test this morning''s 1956.50 bias-up target as support. Support held.

At least, so far. Overnight highs are being probed again, albeit still short of the open''s high. The renewed bias-up target is 1973.00, along the path to eventually test 1986.00, 1996.00 and 2000.00.

Back under 1960.00 would target 1949.00, although that would be more credible after the bias environment began lapsing.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1979.25
1976.00
...would target 1989.25
1986.00
Bias-down: under 1968.75
1965.50
...would target 1959.75
1956.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-up target met and held.

This morning''s last buy signal at 1965.25 had already met its 1973.00 target, probing it up to 1977.75. A pullback down to 1968.25 allowed 1973.00 to become a buy signal, and it was triggered before noon. Advancing into the bias timing window fulfilled the 1986.00 bias-up target.

Exceeding it at 1:20 would have renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 1996.00. Fresh highs by 1:30 would have been credible for extending higher to 1996.00. Lacking either of those setups, it''s still a bias-up environment. Fresh highs can be probed.

While a retest of the high is likely, beware its rejection and reaction down into the bias environment lapsing at 2:30. That can get carried away to the downside.

Otherwise, the rally isn''t required to extend any higher today, but the door remains open -- whether during the bias-up environment or after it, so long as pullbacks haven''t begun trending down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The maximum pullback limit was probed Thursday, making a retest of fresh highs above 1.1800 much more difficult without either gapping up sharply to reject Thursday''s break, or else taking time to develop an accumulative pattern.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday''s consolidation under the 1125.40 pullback limit didn''t extend down Thursday but the consolidation must now resolve up to confirm the pullback has been only temporary.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday''s surge back up to 14.55 resistance helps to begin forming a bottom that could launch a recovery without trending down to lower lows. But it is premature to begin recovering yet..

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh low finally reacted up intraday to test the 157-07 buy signal, which wasn''t recovered, much like the decline''s last two buy signals were attacked to within 1-2 ticks before resuming the decline.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday''s gap up trended considerably higher throughout the day, much more so than the bottoming pattern suggested was likely at this stage. Regardless of being so substantial the reversal attempt is too premature and impatiently formed to avoid a retest of the lows before completing a bottom.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Thursday''s EIA report wasn''t being greeted from a position of strength, and the knee-jerk reaction up recovered to fill the gap back to Wednesday''s 2.69 close. But only temporarily, as the balance of the session drifted back down to the week''s lows testing 2.63. Early strength Friday above 2.69 would be credible for extending higher intraday.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1993.25
1990.00
...would target 2004.25
2001.00
Bias-down: under 1982.75
1979.50
...would target 1972.75
1969.50
Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.