Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Greeting Tuesday's 3400.00 open from above Monday's 3393.00 high then trended up to 3409.00 throughout the opening 15 minutes. Creating a position of strength at least ensures reversals down will recover. The open's position of strength also tends to be rewarded with fresh session highs, but the morning's dip to 3394.50 only recovered to within 1 point of the high. Ranging sideways through the noon hour resolved down to 3378.50 into the last half-hour, bouncing through the close up to 3397.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) "Overnight action," indeed. Once again, the open is being greeted above the prior session's high. Except for early weakness through Asia's opens, overnight rallying has been relentless and probed above yesterday morning's position of strength at 3409.00. Now a surge up to 3418.25 is reacting back down to test last Tue-Wed's 3414.00 as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Closing yesterday back under Monday's 3393.00 high had undermined the intraday probe above it. But momentum wasn't reversed down and rejected. So, trending this morning above yesterday morning's 3409.00 high all but requires at least gapping up above it. That's currently indicated, although not yet by enough margin to ensure being maintained through the open. Also, the resistance of Tue-Wed 3414.00 highs must be exceeded once touched, too. Meanwhile, intraday rallying hasn't developed since Monday morning, so any morning rally should be that much more aggressive. The next higher objective would be 3424.50. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3407.75 would be likely also to exceed the 3416.00 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3407.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 3402.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3398.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Still no post-open rallying. The overnight rally up to 3418.25 satisfied the likely retest of last Tue-Wed 3414.00 high. Its reaction down failed to hold above yesterday morning's 3409.00 position of strength on the way to opening at 3404.00. The 3402.00 bias-up signal was still being overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period, and still not recovered at 10:30 to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of the 3384.25 bias-down signal is in-play. Fresh post-10:15 lows down to 3392.00 help to confirm the late bias signal. But that isn't preventing a bounce from probing 3402.00 by 3 points. Probing beyond a bias signal during a no-bias environment is no-bias trending and would require being retraced to the signal. Unless... This being a late bias, exiting the bias environment above its bias-up target would invalidate the no-bias trending's required retracement.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3416.75 signal would target 3424.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3400.50 signal would target 3388.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3426.25 3416.75 ...would target 3434.00 3424.50 Bias-down: under 3410.00 3400.50 ...would target 3397.50 3388.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Awaiting FOMC events. Rallying into this morning's 11:30 bias environment exit got to 3412.50. This is no-bias trending that requires retracing the 3402.00 bias-up signal that should define the no-bias window's upper-end. And 3402.00 is retraced, down to 3393.00, triggering this afternoon's 3400.50 bias-down signal. Its 3388.00 bias-down target is in-play. As is unfinished business at this morning's 3384.25 bias parameter. The morning's rally that ignored its no-bias constraint is already excessive optimism by definition. It is an unusual degree of optimism ahead of the afternoon's weighty FOMC events. Now the question is whether mostly retracing down to 3393.00, and most recently retracing, has neutralized the optimism -- perhaps even injected pessimism.

Wednesday was greeted by a third consecutive overnight rally. Probing Tuesday's 3409.00 high up to 3418.50 was reversed down to 3392.00, but left unfinished business at 3384.25 while an optimistic bounce to 3412.50 contradicted the bias. Its reatracement down to 3393.00 left more unfinished business at 3388.00 while FOMC triggered another bounce to fresh highs at 3419.50. Tumbling out of the bias environment finally fulfilled all unfinished business and extended down to 3374.00. Rejecting fresh multi-session highs Wednesday back under the morning's low would have formed a pivot reversal session, if the open had gapped down. But the open's gap up and Wednesday's entire morning were spent under Tuesday's highs, fulfilling much of the pivot reversal. The optimal setup would be reliable for extending down without delay. The next lower objectives would be 3355.00 and 3346.00, still needing to probe 3341.00 to uncover the likely air pocket to fresh lows. Rejecting Wednesday's downside momentum should be rewarded by at least fresh highs up to 3424.50. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3388.00 signal would target 3400.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3369.75 signal would target 3358.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3397.50 3388.00 ...would target 3410.00 3400.50 Bias-down: under 3379.25 3369.75 ...would target 3368.00 3358.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE