Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday night's attack on the afternoon's 2979.75 high had resolved down to slightly probe under Tuesday's 2958.50 lows by 2 points. It was recovered to open Wednesday flat at 2970.00, and patiently waiting to sell the 2974.00 bias-up signal's test resolved in a 20-point collapse to 2953.75. Short of 2951.00, it still fulfilled the structural requirement for a fresh low. And the fresh low was isolated to its timing window, its rejection being as aggressive as its attempt. The balance of the session trended up relentlessly to attack 2992.00, gaining afternoon traction. A last-minute pullback to 2985.00 still ended above Tuesday afternoon and overnight highs. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The last-minute pullback was was relatively shallow considering that the rally's afternoon traction allowed it to be deeper. Another excuse was anxiousness ahead of a post-close Trump press conference. The pullback extended down through midnight to 2978.50. Its consolidation was resolved at Europe's opens by breaking higher, rallying sharply to 2989.00 and then surging to fresh highs at 2995.00. Its reaction has slipped back down to 2989.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Gaining traction during yesterday afternoon's rally makes this morning likely to extend higher. Not just a momentary singular probe above yesterday's range, but a complex extension. Already trending higher overnight or rejecting yesterday afternoon's rally could have interfered, but neither has happened. And now having recovered the overnight dip to test this morning's bias-up signal, triggering it is likely. Just meeting this morning's bias-up target won't yet be enough to ensure another pullback can't reinstate 2951.00, but meanwhile I'll assume that 3019.00 remains in-play. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2995.50 would be likely to trigger the 2993.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2988.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2984.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2980.75 bias-down signal.

Any lower probably means a lot lower. The overnight recovery up to 2995.00 had twice tested this morning's 2993.25 bias-up signal as resistance. A pullback extended to greet the open unchanged at 2986.25, preventing early entry. Nevertheless, post-open action fell relentlessly to 2977.50. And that only slowed the drop, which was retraced to 2982.25 before falling again to 2972.50. The 2980.75 bias-down signal triggered along the way. Its 2973.00 bias-down target was met. But for a couple of ticks, the bias-down target is so far holding as support. Back above 2979.00 would reverse momentum up. Traction gain yesterday afternoon still has plenty of time for production. But meanwhile, it may be only a formality to extend the bias-down environment under its bias-down target. An air pocket down to 2960.00 is likely, and more likely is that resuming the decline would target a probe under yesterday's lows.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2974.00 2975.00 ...would target 2982.25 2983.25 Bias-down: under 2966.00 2967.00 ...would target 2960.00 2961.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Resolving soon? The fresh high overnight had no complexity, and came after Europe's opens. It doesn't reward yesterday afternoon's upside traction. Release of the whistleblower's complaint brought the open back to unchanged at 2986.00. And the morning's bias environment was spent trending down 22 points to 2964.00 instead of up. Now the noon hour's bounce up to 2978.00 has failed to trigger the 2975.00 bias-up signal. Its reaction has room to the 2967.00 bias-down signal, and then lower has potential down to 2951.00. None of which is preventing another bounce attacking 2978.00. Overlapping the 2975.00 bias-up signal, during the no-bias environment which is premature to break higher. Back under 2973.75 would signal another downleg underway. Otherwise, hovering around 2975.00 could launch a recovery when the bias environment begins lapsing.

Seems simple enough. Thursday was bisected into a morning decline, and an afternoon rally. But the morning decline opposed the bullish influences that had greeted the open. And the afternoon rally opposed the further bearish vulnerability created by the morning's decline.

Thursday morning's 2964.25 low was 31 points under the 2995.00 overnight high, and 22 points under the 2986.00 open. The open was unchanged from Wednesday's close -- which should be considered for a moment, as a warning not to be lulled into complacency by a flat open. But that was the morning.

Thursday afternoon rallied 24 points to 2988.50, momentarily probing slightly above the 2986.00 open that was and Wednesday's close -- which should also be considered for a moment, to be aware of prior structures like unchanged, which can offer natural resistance and support. The recovery's last several points were in reaction to a China trade headline, which was retraced to and through its origin to 2977.00.

In short, Wednesday afternoon's upside traction was ignored, and the resulting vulnerability to fresh lows was avoided. At least the afternoon's recovery and its late reaction down ended at 2979.00. This does not negate Wednesday's recovery above Tuesday afternoon's 2979.00 high, which was bullish, after having recovered the earlier probe under Tuesday's low. That much of the bullish template remains intact, and would reinforce any initial rally effort's credibility for extending higher into the weekend. But closing Thursday only at 2970.00 instead of above it keeps alive the alternative path down to 2951.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2982.75 2984.00 ...would target 2990.75 2992.00 Bias-down: under 2973.75 2975.00 ...would target 2966.25 2967.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.