Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday morning's decline ignored the traction gained by Wednesday afternoon's rally, falling 31 points from the 2995.00 overnight high, and 22 points under the 2986.00 open to 2964.25. Just probing under 2975.00 opened the door to extending down to 2951.00, which Thursday afternoon's rally ignored by rallying 24 points to 2988.50. Its reaction down to 2977.00 bounced just enough to close at 2979.00. That had also been Tuesday afternoon's high, and recovering it Wednesday had started signaling that a bottom may be forming. Preserving its recovery Thursday maintains the potentially bullish template to continue ranging sideways Friday, probably to form a bottom. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Volatility didn't go dormant at the close. First, a deeper pullback extended down to 2971.50, and then it was recovered to greet Europe's opens at 2986.00. That was both Wednesday's close and Thursday's open, and its natural resistance eventually became natural support as the recovery worked its way higher. The reward was a surge above yesterday's intraday highs up to 2993.00, attacking yesterday's pre-open highs to within 2 points. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) 22 points of buying pressure off of the overnight low, now challenging the bias-up target's resistance. Is the open repeating yesterday's setup to be knocked back down? Or, is yesterday's pre-open recovery attempt getting a second chance. Yesterday's close kept intact the bottoming potential from Wednesday, which would reinforce any initial rally effort's credibility for extending higher into the weekend. Whichever, Friday Factors could magnify the effort, also keeping alive potential to 3019.00 above, or to 2951.00 below. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2987.50 would be likely to trigger the 2984.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2980.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Bias-down signal tested most recently. The overnight rally to 2993.00 held up relatively well into the 2988.00 open. But the opening 15 minutes collapsed to 2982.00. Resuming the rally was looking less likely. In fact, the dip resumed and extended down to 2973.00. Overlapping the 2975.00 bias-down signal around 10:15 invoked the grace period. Bouncing to 2980.50 at 10:30 triggered "late no-bias." Despite already having tested the 2984.00 bias-up signal post-open, the bias-down signal's test was more recent. So, an offsetting test of 2984.00 was put into play. And 2984.00 is now being tested up to 2986.25. The test of 2984.00 should define the no-bias window's upper-end. Probing above it prematurely would be "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced. Delaying higher highs -- or correcting them -- could extend into a much bigger rally as Friday Factors start leveraging the upside momentum. Meanwhile, the no-bias environment could dip back down to its 2975.00 bias-down signal, which would be likely back under 2980.50. And (yet) another test of 2975.00 might finally get sucked into the air pocket I suspect has room down to the low 2960's.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2983.25 2984.25 ...would target 2989.75 2990.75 Bias-down: under 2968.75 2970.25 ...would target 2961.50 2963.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Friday Factors. This morning's bias environment had recovered positive territory to test 2986.00 when a China trade headline triggered a 23-point collapse to 2962.50. Air pocket, indeed. As is appropriate with headline reactions, it was retraced by at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, and then also by its room for noise up to 2982.25. But the noon hour was entered at 2975.00, and the noon hour was exited at 2956.50. There's no bullish reason to retest Tuesday and Wednesday's 2954.00 and 2958.50 lows so closely, other than to try recovering from their probe -- presumably at least touching 2951.00. So, this afternoon's 2970.25 bias-down signal not only triggered, but renewed by also exceeding its 2963.00 bias-down target at 1:20. The renewed bias-down target is essentially 2951.00. Back above 2964.75 would start to signal that sellers may be done for today. Meanwhile, the next lower objectives under 2951.00 are no nearer than 2940.00.

Friday was both a redux AND a retry. Rallying overnight up to 2993.00 could have extended higher through the morning, and left behind this week's retest of 2-week old lows at 2959.00. Instead, Friday's post-open action repeated Thursday's rejection of its overnight rally. The dip to 2963.00 was 9 points shallower than Thursday, so it was easily recovered, too. But where Thursday's dip and recovery had taken the entire session, Friday's was complete by noon. And, once again postured to trend up to fresh highs, the market instead broke lower again. This time in reaction to a China trade headline, which was retraced to 2982.00, where Friday Factors inhibited an actual reversal. The balance of the session trended down to 2946.25. The headline's reaction back down to 2975.00 had finally discovered the air pocket down to the low 2960's. And the break under 2975.00 finally extended to fresh lows at 2951.00. Closing back above 2951.00 at 2963.00-2964.00 prevents putting into play the next lower attractions at 2940.00 down to 2916.00-2919.00. But neither does it reverse the trend up, despite firming through the close up to 2969.50. . Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:00 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2971.25 2972.50 ...would target 2978.75 2980.00 Bias-down: under 2957.25 2958.50 ...would target 2951.50 2952.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.