Real Time Day Trading Signals - 09-28-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday was an uneventful day, surrounded by two major events. The first was a 25-point overnight rally that reached 1951.00.  Reacting down to 1939.00 for the open still gapped up above Thursday's 1926.50 highs. The morning ranged sideways back down to 1931.00, still comfortably above Thursday's highs. Firming into the afternoon was ambushed by the second event, a 30-point plunge down to 1910.00. The close reacted up to 1925.00, back under Thursday's high. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open confirmed that Friday's plunge was not an anomaly. Fresh lows attacked 1905.00 on more signs of China's "hard landing." Despite recovering up to 1928.00 and 1930.00 into and out of Europe's opens, another downleg has probed fresh lows testing 1904.00, presumably in reaction to Glencore's continued implosion. Its reaction up to 1912.00 was just retraced entirely back down to 1904.00. If, then... Bounces help to absorb subsequent selling pressure before it manages to push price under a relevant level during a relevant timing window. Last night's bounce is being tested for just that, since its 26-point reaction down has probed under Sunday night's initial low. That often accompanies knee-jerk reactions to old news, which defines the China and Glencore stories. The open should prove that by barely delaying a recovery when new selling pressure dwindles. Another pre-open bounce might invite a brief post-open dip, first. But not already rallying out of the opening 15 minutes of volatility would suggest instead of absorbing sellers, that the bounces themselves had been absorbed. And despite being triggered by old news, the drop was attracting new sellers. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1906.25 would be unlikely to recover the 1908.25 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1912.25 would be unlikely to renew bias-down. Exiting the open above 1919.00 at 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 1914.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Opening sell-off probes last week's lows. The post-open crowd was going to acknowledge last night's selling one way, or another. Only gapping up would have inhibited a post-open extension of Friday afternoon's plunge. But what could have been absorbed around 1900.00 has instead extended to test 1893.00. And that's not the bearish part, probing fresh lows, no matter how low. Testing any fresh low can be potentially bullish, depending on when and how its test begins, and on when and how it ends.

Probing under last week's 1897.00-1899.00 low AFTER 10:15 could have been rendered moot by then recovering it by 11:30. Isolating its test to the bias environment would make it only noise.

However 1897.00-1899.00 was already being probed when the bias environment began at 10:15. Rejecting it must recover the last downleg's origin when the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. That's essentially 1909.00.

Currently a bounce is testing 1897.00-1899.00 as resistance. There is no unfinished business below, since 1-minute RSI diverged at the low. But back under 1894.50 would resume the decline, next targeting 1884.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1904.50  1894.25 ...would target  1911.25  1901.00 Bias-down: under  1894.00 1883.75 ...would target  1888.50  1878.25 Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour low is already testing the target. The next lower objective under 1899.00 is 1884.00. Not exiting this morning's bias environment back above a relevant level would leave 1884.00 outstanding to become "unfinished business below." So much simpler just to fulfill its test. Which was done soon after noon. And now it's being probed down to 1881.50. 1884.00 is essentially this afternoon's bias-down signal. The bullish scenario would avoid triggering the signal at 1:20, instead of trying to bounce back from its target.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Monday's weaker open suggested that Friday's bounce had neutralized excessive pessimism from Friday's gap down. But it immediately began reversing up and probed above Friday's high. Nevertheless, resolving to new lows remains likely so long as bounces hold 1.1265. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday's reaction down from Thursday's surge to 1156.50 extended down Sunday night to open Monday back under the surge's 1136.00 low, testing Wednesday's 1128.00 low. Closing back above 1137.50 would suggest the reaction down had ended, but it otherwise has potential to retest 1117.00 Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday's gap down under last week's lows was probed under 14.65 support whose recovery would signal the drop is only a temporary correction. Closing under 14.50 would all but require new lows under 14.20. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Presumably facilitated by Sunday night's stock market drop, the Island created by Friday's gap down was recovered already Monday after gapping up and then extending to retest Thursday's 157-16 high. Unfinished business below was left outstanding at 153-26, which would be put into play back under 156-16. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Renewed weakness only attacked last week's lows, so far, on the way to fulfilling at least the 42.80 pullback target so long as bounces hold 46.00 as resistance. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) After Friday's inside day had held the range's lower-end, gapping up above its 2.60 upper-end had extended already to 2.64. It reacted down back within the range, but a second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm a new upleg is underway.

[View the Bias parameters here] That's more like it. Monday wasn't actually a "session-long decline" setup. Nevertheless, the session trended down throughout, with each timing window probing under its prior timing window's low. Had it been an actual session-long decline setup, then the following session would be likely to extend lower. But only Monday afternoon's bias environment was actually exited under its prior timing window's low, so sellers didn't gain traction. That may only reflect how uncommitted sellers still are. Bouncing here and there at this stage seems like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Monday's relentless decline still controlled its sentiment, and certainly didn't reflect the sort of capitulation that might allow a bottoming process to begin. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyfvzb

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1891.50 1881.50 ...would target  1897.25  1887.25 Bias-down: under  1880.00  1870.00 ...would target  1874.00  1864.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.