Real Time Day Trading Signals - 10-02-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday was the second consecutive session that found at least two ways for sellers to expend energy without reversing the trend down. Yesterday's session went so far as to allow the afternoon's bias-down to trigger. Its 1981.50 target had been met already during the noon hour, which opened the door to rallying above the satisfied 1897.00 bias-down signal, despite still being a bias-down environment. While that's clearly possible, it did leave "unfinished business below" at the 1897.00 bias-down signal. But it didn't prevent triggering three buy signals as the balance of the session rallied back to test the open's 1917.00 high. Overnight action's new info... Intraday action seems to have been duplicated overnight. There was an early surge to 1923.00, it eventually reacted down into negative territory at 1913.00, and the balance of the session has recovered earlier highs. And higher, testing 1925.00. If, then... The overnight high is still a little short of Wednesday night's 1927.50-1929.50 highs, but it's above Thursday's intraday high. The market seems to have wanted to greet this morning's Employment Situation report optimistically. But no relevant level was recovered on a closing basis while expending so much buying pressure. It's essentially the inverse of intraday action that has been letting sellers expend energy without gaining traction for their effort. The intraday selling efforts didn't attract new sponsorship, but the buying efforts still can. Whichever way the bounce from Tuesday's low may resolve this morning, it could be at least 70 points in either direction. First Trade... There are no preliminary indications ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Session-long decline taking an early break, or broken? Gapping down under yesterday afternoon's 1891.75 bias environment low -- and then maintaining the gap down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to test 1883.00 -- has triggered a "session-long decline" setup. Every timing window but one should probe under its prior timing window's low. Perhaps that one counter-trend timing window is this morning's bias environment. It has only rallied, from testing 1883.00 to attack 1906.00. Now, every remaining timing window should probe under its prior timing window's low. That would suggest a big noon hour drop. Otherwise, perhaps the session-long decline has inverted. Only one opportunity remains to signal its inversion: Exiting the bias environment back above the 1891.75 level that created it. It was part of a consolidation up to 1898.50, so we'll give the setup a benefit of the doubt if that range is retraced by noon, and then soon broken. Inverting the setup would require every remaining timing window to probe above its prior timing window's high. Otherwise, fresh session lows are likely before the close.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1917.00  1907.00 ...would target  1923.00  1913.00 Bias-down: under  1905.25  1895.25 ...would target  1899.00  1889.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Session-long decline inverts and then some. This morning's bias environment began lapsing above the "session-long decline" signal, and held up into noon. This is without the morning's bias environment having probed a fresh low. Consequently, the session-long decline inverted. Each remaining timing window with one exception should probe above its prior timing window's high. The noon hour's 1905.00 entry took that to heart and rallied 15 points. Its exit extended 6 points higher to 1926.50. That raises the bar on subsequent timing windows. In fact, the current afternoon bias environment has dipped to 1917.00.

Only one timing window remains, so it should probe above the bias environment's 1924.50 high (notice that's not a new session high, just above its prior timing window's high). Nothing in particular must happen after that.

The bias environment hasn't yet lapsed, and may yet probe a fresh high. If so, then the last timing window would have no requirement -- and it would be free to decline.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Wednesday's break wasn't confirmed Thursday, but Friday's spike up on payrolls didn't hold its probe above 1.1265. Fresh lows remain in-play, especially so long as 1.1213 is now broken as support. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) A little extra dose of pessimism further under 1117.00 ahead of Friday's Employment report facilitated a spike up to attack 1141.50, proving the pullback had ended. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Spiking up Friday morning and extending higher to test 15.25 raised the pullback limit to 15.10 to maintain the pullback has reversed up. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Spiking up on Friday's payrolls report to 160-20 was retraced back down to the 158-18 prior highs, now raising the actionable sell signal to a close under 157-24. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Friday's choppiness may have been a warning shot at the growing likelihood for breaking lower to and probably through 42.80. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday's fresh low didn't extend, but it's premature for Monday to offer a reversal setup.

Setups reflect sponsorship taking control. If they've done everything necessary, and still don't succeed, that's not a failure -- it's the opposing sponsorship taking control instead. Exiting Friday morning's bias environment 20 points off its 1883.00 low wasn't itself the reason for the "session-long decline" failing. And it was no reason why its inversion couldn't still be productive. The inverted setup could have only ranged flat-to-higher, but it doubled the initial 20-point recovery, and then added another 20 points on top. And there's room for yet another 20 points, but no requirement, since the next higher corrective bounce potential was met and held at 1942.00. Not already retesting Tuesday's low has affected the corrective bounce's consequences. Some details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjvrwf

Join us in the Saturday Review for more discussion of the corrective bounce, the "session-long" setup, and possible Sunday night and Monday morning price action. It begins at 9:30am ET, and I'll send access instructions before then.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1952.75 1942.75 ...would target  1958.00  1948.00 Bias-down: under  1943.75  1933.75 ...would target  1936.75  1926.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.