Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's deep, steep decline to 2938.00-2940.00 was outdone by Wednesday's sellers. The 15-17 point gap down to 2923.00 immediately collapsed through the first half-hour to 2899.00. The decline extended at a slightly shallower albeit relentless slope, through the noon hour, to 2874.00. A 23-point bounce into late-afternoon reached 2897.00 before falling back down to 2879.00 through the close -- much of it triggered at the cash session close by a China Europe tariff headline . Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednesday afternoon's rally immediately resumed after the close. All but 2-3 points of its late-afternoon retracement has been retraced, attacking this morning's 2894.50 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. Its eventual reaction is now attacking the 2884.25 bias-down signal. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The timing and extent of yesterday's last downleg made this morning's 2984.25 bias-down signal seem oddly placed above yesterday's last trade. But that's where Globex opened, and it held several tests through the night. Focus shifted to the 2894.75 bias-up signal which has been under attack since Europe's opens, until now attacking the bias-down signal. Whether the decline were certain to resume or just to retest yesterday's low, nothing requires the selling pressure to resume today. And even if assured not to resume the decline today, nothing requires any higher bounce than yesterday afternoon's. Well, not much higher -- if not trending back down, then a retest of yesterday afternoon's highs would be likely to at least test 2898.00-2899.50 if not also 2904.50-2907.00. But resuming the decline does remain possible, and is the premise unless bias-up is triggered. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2988.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2984.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2890.75 would be unlikely to trigger 2894.75 bias-up signal.

Better late than never. The indecisive overnight range greeted the open at 2885.00, still 3 points under yesterday's cash session close equivalent. A blip-down to 2881.00 reacted up as quickly to 2890.75, each being an inflection point and each containing price action between them. Until ISM at 10:00. Its reaction plunged 35 points to 2855.00. The template for probing yesterday's 2874.00 low by a wide margin also expected retracing the probe. That took only a little bit longer, returning to the 2884.25 bias-down signal's resistance. Another reaction down got to 2870.75, but now the open's highs are being probed up to 2896.25. The template did not require recovering the entire drop, so the result could be sharply higher highs if sellers don't retake control again. One concern is the timing. This being a bias-down environment, probing above its 2984.25 bias-down signal will require an eventual retracement. That can be delayed beyond today, so a recovery would be entirely credible.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2897.25 2898.00 ...would target 2904.25 2905.00 Bias-down: under 2882.25 2883.25 ...would target 2876.00 2877.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Things just got binary. The recovery from this morning's plunge was able to probe above yesterday's high to 2901.25. Its reaction down to 2886.00 was recovered to higher highs. This afternoon's 2898.00 bias-up signal triggered, and now its 2905.00 bias-up target is being probed by 2 points. The last pullback stopped 2 points short of 2884.25. That was this morning's bias-down signal, which was probed during its bias-down environment. Like no-bias trending, the bias-down signal should define the window's upper-end if tested, or retraced if broken. Having failed both, 2884.25 is now "unfinished business" below. That obviously doesn't prevent taking care of the business at hand, which seems to be to rally. "Seems to be" seems obvious, having triggered bias-up and now probing the bias-up target. But the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} swing from yesterday's close and this morning's low is only now being attacked to within 3 ticks at 2908.50. So far, that's just noise. And it's difficult generating counter-trend sponsorship the afternoon prior to an Employment Situation report. The recovery attempt isn't yet a reversal, and so it remains vulnerable to failing -- today. Renewed selling pressures coming out of the bias environment would be vulnerable to extending down sharply.

Thursday's plunge under Wednesday's 2874.00 low to 2855.00 and then its complete retracement was essentially the only way to retest Wednesday's low. That is, after two trending sessions were followed by a flat overnight range. This setup develops often, but rarely so glaringly as when dealing with such wide intraday ranges. The plunge was recovered, even reversed to probe Wednesday's late 2897.00 high up to 2909.00. But the reversal never became entrenched, despite expending so much energy to recover positive territory, greeting Friday's Employment Situation report optimistically. And now Thursday's plunge has helped to chip away the support at Wednesday's low, in case it's tested again. More room for noise at the Tue-Wed 38.2/61.8 Gap-to-gap retracement comes in at 2930.00-2934.00. Its recovery through a timing window could be leveraged by Friday Factors to squeeze higher into the weekend. Testing its resistance could also send price back down into Thursday's range. Friday Factors could also exacerbate early weakness, which would be the likeliest weakness not only to retest Thursday's low but to extend lower. And that much weakness on a Friday morning in this ongoing decline could get very ugly going into the weekend, and even uglier coming out of it. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2914.25 2914.75 ...would target 2922.00 2922.50 Bias-down: under 2897.25 2898.00 ...would target 2891.00 2891.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.