Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Choppy but ultimately sideways ranging greeted Thursday's 2885.00 open nearly flat from Wednesday's 2888.00 cash session close. A post-open econ report triggered the bearish template's sudden, steep and substantial plunge, probing under Wednesday's 2874.00 low to 2855.00. The template's retracement back into the overnight range could have resolved either way from there, and resolved up into and through the overnight range. Improving more gradually through the afternoon bias environment completed a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} swing from the morning's low up to 2908.50. The next morning's payrolls report made it difficult to extend the recovery. But its 11-point reaction down still spiked up to 2911.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Thursday's last-minute surge had touched the 2911.00 inflection point that would have been a buy signal if triggered earlier. Its resistance reacted through midnight to attack 2905.00. Surging an hour later up to 2918.00 had been retraced entirely another hour later to test 2905.00. And now a consolidation through Europe's opens has broken lower to retrace yesterday's last minute surge from 2898.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday morning's reversal back into positive territory never became entrenched as a recovery. Only retracing an intraday plunge is not in itself bullish. Not without the recovery establishing a position of strength. Support is chipped away and buying pressure is expended, both of which may be sorely missed if another drop retests support without replenishing buying pressure. A retest of the lows -- Wednesday's actual 2874.00 low, a proxy for Thursday's 2855.00 low, or fresh lows -- could still recover depending on the recovery attempt's timing. Recovering, or not, could be exacerbated by Friday Factors in either direction Meanwhile, this morning's Employment Situation report is being greeted optimistically, albeit without that optimism having gained upside traction. Either direction's reaction will be in reaction to whether the data supports another rate cut, which could be renewed or reversed by one of several Fed speakers scheduled throughout the day. Even rallying to the 2930.00-2934.00 Tue-Wed 38.2/61.8 Gap-to-gap retracement would remain vulnerable to reversing back down before the weekend. With or without an interim rally, trading down into the weekend in this ongoing decline could get very ugly going into the weekend, and even uglier coming out of it. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) There are no preliminary indications ahead of an Employment Situation report.

And renewed bias-up target met. The Employment Situation report was greeted around the 2998.00 bias-down signal. Its knee-jerk reaction spiked up through the 2918.00 overnight high by 2 points and ranged narrowly sideways into the open. Where the rally resumed. The bounce from yesterday's low had room as high as the 2934.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the gap-to-gap between Tuesday's close and Wednesday's open. It would be the renewed bias-up target. And it was met before triggering the renewed bias-up. This morning is a bias-up environment. Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour. That's often reliable, but doesn't prevent probing under the 2914.75 bias-up signal before then anyway. But it is meanwhile support -- in fact, it's the midpoint for today's gap-to-gap retracement. The reaction down just got to 2920.75 and is bouncing on a China trade headline. Back above 2930.50 would start to signal the rally is resuming, if only to take the correction to greater degree like 2944.00-2946.00. The reaction down meanwhile remains vulnerable to resuming.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2940.75 2939.75 ...would target 2947.00 2946.00 Bias-down: under 2929.25 2928.50 ...would target 2921.25 2920.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering at the highs. By the time bias-up had signaled it was renewed, its 2932.00-2934.00 renewed bias-up target had been met. Touched, but not exceeded, and already reacting down to 2927.00. The pullback ultimately extended down to 2920.75, all of it recovered as the bias environment began lapsing. Higher highs were probed up to 2938.50 by noon. And since then... nothing. Just an extremely narrow 4-point channel. Actually, it just blipped up to 2940.50, testing the 2939.75 bias-up signal that should define the window's upper-end for at least another half-hour. Regardless, this is a Friday, and it is a trending day. Exiting the afternoon bias environment above the noon hour's high could marginalize sellers for the day. Also, the setup would be vulnerable to extending higher through the close. The next attraction is 2944.00-2946.00. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment back under 2934.50 would start to signal that momentum is reversing down, which would be confirmed under 2930.50.

Hurdles to trending in either direction next week include the quarterly earnings onslaught, FOMC Minutes, and a couple of Fed Chair Powell appearances. This week's shifting argument between "recession is bad for earnings" (Tue's Mfg ISM, Wed's ADP) and "recession is good for rate cut odds" (Thu's non-Mfg ISM, Fri's payrolls) seems to reflect confidence that a recession has arrived. Notice which side has the ball as of Friday's close, so which side gets it next... As for Friday's predictive value, it's tough to knock a 39-point upday. But it is a Friday. Thursday's last-minute surge had already disqualified a "session-long rally," but Friday traded anyway as if the setup had formed. Friday Factors were influential, from the morning's bias persisting through the noon hour, to the afternoon bias exit extending higher through the close, and simply exacerbating any early trending. Along the way, the likely corrective bounce peak at 2934.00 was exceeded, albeit after defining the morning's high. So, did a two-week old pullback from 3024.50 bottom at Thursday's 2874.00 low? Friday's 2953.00 high is higher than the optimal limit for being only a temporary corrective bounce, but it doesn't reverse the trend up. And the 2-3 week series of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. The next higher significant resistance is 2957.00-2963.00, with no requirement for being tested. Sellers could regain control already Monday by exiting the open under the afternoon's 2934.50 low, and then challenge support at 2913.50-2915.00. Almost anything lower would all but ensure a retest of the 2874.00and 2855.00 low, and there's no bullish reason for that. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2958.00 2957.50 ...would target 2965.25 2964.75 Bias-down: under 2944.25 2943.50 ...would target 2936.25 2935.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.