Real Time Day Trading Signals - 10-15-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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Through the prior close... Wednesday's opening rally up to the morning's 2001.50 bias-up signal was reversed through the morning to test the 1988.00 bias-down signal, and its room for noise down to 1985.50. A noon hour bounce to 1998.50 spent the afternoon probing fresh lows down to 1982.50. The slide gained traction, albeit as indecisively as possible. Overnight action's new info... Initially firming back up to 1988.00 soon launched a rally that had retraced yesterday's 1998.50 high into Europe's opens. Ranging choppily there since then has touched 2000.00. If, then... Regardless of whether yesterday's slide gained traction decisively, rejecting that traction requires decisiveness. That means gapping up this morning back above a relevant level. Immediately recovering the noon hour's 1998.50 high would be optimal, but the afternoon bias environment's 1995.50 high could suffice. Exiting the open any lower -- especially if post-open action were to duplicate those levels' overnight tests -- would be vulnerable to probing under yesterday's 1982.50 low by 2-4 points... WedEX was bearish, having closed successively lower from a multi-session range. Usually, that's irrelevant until Friday, but it can be negated by proxy at Thursday's open. That would require maintaining a gap up to and through 2002.25. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2002.00 would be likely also to exceed this morning's 1999.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1995.50 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target, and opening under 1988.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1993.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Not extending the gap up. Gapping up above 1995.50-1998.50 would have negated the traction yesterday's decline had gained.The open gapped up to this morning's 1993.50 bias-up signal, and ranged choppily around it, but didn't probe above 1995.50 until the first 15 minutes had almost lapsed. Suspicious. Bias-up did trigger. And dipping under it at 10:30 was still overlapping it, which doesn't qualify for rejecting the 10:15 signal. And now a fresh post-open high is testing 1998.50. The 1999.50 bias-up target may still be met. And may be probed up to 2002.00. But holding that gain would be questionable.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2003.25 1995.50 ...would target  2009.50  2002.00 Bias-down: under  1995.50  1988.00 ...would target 1990.50 1982.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS -UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Has the third consecutive morning surge rolled over, too?. Tuesday's gap down immediately launched a rally back above Monday's highs, and still closed under the morning's low. Wednesday's flat open also immediately rallied, but ended the morning under the morning's lows (and ended the session even lower). Now comes this morning's gap up. Extending higher post-open was not immediate, as much time was spent ranging around the 1993.50 bias-up signal. Finally extending higher did quickly fulfill its 1999.50 bias-up target. But almost as quickly price has returned to the open's 1991.25 lows. And lower to 1989.50. All of which is still in positive territory. Well into positive territory. However, the bias environment was exited back under its fulfilled bias-up signal. That's not in itself a signal, but it does suggest that another rally leg will require forming another pattern and triggering it. Otherwise, probing under yesterday's lows down to 1979.00-1980.00 remains possible. Recovering 1993.50 and triggering the 1995.50 bias-up could leave behind fresh lows until Friday afternoon.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Thursday's gap down extended intraday to test the three prior sessions' 1.1370 support. More backing-and-filling can't be precluded before resuming the rally to its 1.1595 target. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Trending up overnight and gapping up Thursday to within $4 of the target at 1191.70 reacted down into negative territory to 1174.00. Recovering nearly all of the post-open slide keeps alive the target, although I'm lowering it 20 cents to 1195.50. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Despite having ignored Gold's rally, Silver spiked down in tandem with Gold at Thursday's open. But, like Gold, it was recovered entirely, relatively more so. Nevertheless, not extending higher aggressively would be unlikely to maintain any shallower gains. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Overnight highs touched the 159-22 room for noise above the 159-13. Trending back down from there at Thursday's open then spent the balance of the session repeatedly testing the 158-23 gap that had attracted price higher. Back under 158-04 would signal momentum reversing down. Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Gapping down Thursday did not exploit Wednesday's "ineffectual pessimism," The morning's EIA report kept price under pressure ranging at or under 46.00 for another ineffectual pessimism session. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Gapping up Thursday to a fresh recovery high at 2.58 was reversed down hard by the EIA report -- back to and through the 2.48 "lower prior highs." There's still room down to 2.43 without launching a new downleg. Back above 2.52 would put into play a test of 2.67.

I began noting during the noon hour that if extending the rally through the noon hour wasn't rejected, then its 2007.50 renewed bias-up target would be only a formality. Retesting the 2014.00 prior high would be only a formality. The market was on a mission to neutralize all upside attractions -- probably including 2019.50 -- and fast. Fast is how it was done. Fast is how it had to be done. Wednesday's decline had gained traction, which was bearish, so the only way to reject it was by gapping up Thursday. Similarly, exiting Thursday morning's bias environment back under its fulfilled bias-up signal was bearish, so it could be rejected only aggressively, too. Rallying relentlessly throughout Thursday's noon hour was as aggressive as it gets. Extending higher relentlessly throughout Thursday afternoon's bias environment maintained the aggression. Like the proverbial shark needing to continue moving to avoid rolling over, like Satchel Paige saying "Don't look back, you don't want to know what might be gaining on you," Thursday's rally can't afford to hesitate if it intends to extend higher. And since it gained traction -- the bias environment was exited above the noon hour's high and the final hour was entered even higher -- the only way to reject it immediately is by gapping down under a prior timing window's low. That's at least 2000.00, if not lower. Details and mention of the WedEX and other markets coverage are discussed in the market Wrap, which was held early due to a scheduling conflict. Its recording is here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjvymh

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc