Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's pattern had forecast Tuesday would be a pullback session. That wasn't at all obvious overnight, which had developed exclusively above the morning's bias-up signal. But the Globex session's early spike up to 3086.00 never extended while only ranging choppily sideways, repeatedly holding Monday's 3083.00-3084.00 highs as resistance. Tuesday's open collapsed in 2-3 legs that tested 3070.00. Flat-to-higher ranging through the afternoon no-bias environment, back up to its 3077.00 bias-up signal, ultimately finished 4 points under Monday's 3076.50 close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Choppy price action since yesterday's close has developed mostly in negative territory. Early Globex trading probed under Tuesday's lows, coming within 1 tick of the 3067.25 bias-down signal. Its support test launched a rally through Europe's opens up to 3075.50. A one-hour drop erased almost all of it back down to 3068.00, which has at least corrected back up to 3073.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Wednesday's session, being the session that follows a forecasted pullback, has three likely templates, each one volatile and with predictable calculations. Resuming the rally today is likely, possibly this morning, regardless of spending the overnight mostly in negative territory. An initial attempt to extend the pullback could also be absorbed this morning to resume the rally. Upside attractions are 3084.00, 3088.00, and 3093.50. But that initial attempt to extend the pullback, if not absorbed through the open, would have potential down to 3044.50. So, two of today's three likely templates share the characteristic of initial weakness, with one reversing up and the other extending down. And two of today's three likely templates share the characteristic of resolving up, with one starting immediately while the other recovers from initial weakness. An unlikely fourth template would start rallying immediately and then fail, so early strength would be likely to extend higher intraday. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3071.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3067.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3074.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3077.75 bias-up signal.

Narrowing down the templates quickly. Not rallying at the open left us with two likely templates for today. They shared the characteristic of initial weakness. Without rallying early, a retest of the lows was likely. Despite having tested 3077.00 just minutes earlier, the open was greeted at 3073.25 while collapsing to 3067.25. That tested yesterday's 3070.00 low, the 3067.50 overnight low, and also this morning's 3067.25 bias-down signal. They all held, reacting up to attack 3075.00. And triggering no-bias has put into play an offsetting test of the 3077.75 bias-up signal. That doesn't ensure trending straight back up, or avoiding more pullbacks. But pullbacks should recover and eventually resume the rally today. Otherwise, fresh session lows would start to signal that a deeper pullback is underway.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3073.25 3071.00 ...would target 3080.00 3077.75 Bias-down: under 3062.50 3060.50 ...would target 3054.50 3052.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

China trade headline derails the recovery. Fresh lows this morning were likely to be absorbed and then reversed back up to resume the rally. This morning's fresh lows probed prior lows down to 3067.25, and then hovered up to 3074.00. Exiting the bias environment at the morning's highs was well-positioned to resume the rally. Then came the China trade headline. Its knee-jerk reaction was a blip-up to 3077.25 that plunged to fresh lows at 3064.00. No long well-positioned to rally out of the bias environment. Hovering again, back up to 3069.00 is now trying to break higher above 3072.00. It's too late to invalidate the 3071.00 bias-up signal. But I'd still consider giving the rally a benefit of the doubt since that's the premise anyway. Also, the attempt to derail it hasn't. Probing above the bias-up signal during a no-bias environment is "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced. So, a durable recovery would either wait for better timing, or else exit the bias environment above its 3077.75 bias-up target to negate selling pressure.

Wednesday's likelihood for resuming the rally was derailed by a China trade headline. It triggered a spike down to fresh lows at 3063.00 that needed to be absorbed. The morning was prepared to absorb the open's own probe under Tuesday's 3070.00 lows down to 3067.00.

The extra drop added a degree of difficulty to absorbing it, along with the headline's knee-jerk reaction timing being on the cusp between timing windows. But a recovery was likely for the knee-jerk reaction's catalyst being a China trade headline, and the reaction was recovered entirely as the session closed at 3074.00-3076.00.

Which only moves the rally's schedule back a day to Thursday, while its templates remain largely intact. Rallying early is still unlikely to fail and likelier to extend. Dipping early is still capable of recovering, but likelier to extend down which is different from Wednesday. Resuming the rally remains likely to test 3084.00, 3088.00, and potentially 3093.50. Extending the pullback would be likely to test 3044.50. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3080.00 3077.75 ...would target 3086.00 3083.75 Bias-down: under 3070.25 3068.00 ...would target 3065.00 3062.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.