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DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's gap down to 2804.50 bounced 9 points but didn't hold. Its retest bounced 11 points, and also didn't hold. The second bounce filled the gap back up to Wednesday's cash session close, neutralizing its attraction above. Failed bounces and gap fills are potentially distributive behavior, with that potential being unleashed by breaking under relevant support. And that was essentially 2804.50. Sellers were aided in this effort by having left "unfinished business" below at the morning's 2800.75 bias-down target. The FOMC policy statement's reaction helped sellers, too, and the next lower objective at 2795.50 was met. Sellers could also get help from not recovering the 2804.50 area, which a late bounce was still testing until a last-minute surge attacked 2811.00. Oversold RSIs at Thursday's 2795.50 low require an eventual retest. Overnight action's new info... Globex was initially choppy as Thursday's last-minute surge to 2811.00 was retraced to within 1 tick of what is this morning's 2799.50 bias-down signal. All of which was recovered by midnight back up to 2811.00, which is this morning's bias-up signal. Reversing down since then retraced the bounce, and then consolidated for a couple of hours at Wednesday afternoon's 2793.75 low. Its eventual break extended to fresh lows at 2789.50, which is now reacting up to test 2793.00, this morning's bias-down target. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Wednesday afternoon's 2793.75 low never required being tested as support. Reversing the trend down from Wednesday's huge rally would have been signaled quickly by opening Thursday under 2793.75. Closing under it Thursday would have qualified, too, if confirmed immediately today. Delaying its break until today is no longer qualified to signal the trend reversing down. It is now only relevant support that is capable of containing the current pullback from Wednesday's high. But just as the 2793.75 didn't require a test, its test isn't required to hold. Its break could extend down to 2764.50 before suggesting a more substantial reversal may have begun. Holding a test of either 2793.75 or 2764.50 -- for example, isolating this 2793.75 test to the overnight -- wouldn't ensure the current pullback has ended, but it would help. And the reward for ending the current pullback is at least a retest of Wednesday night's 2818.00 highs, if not also resuming the rally to the 2850.00 area. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2802.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2799.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2795.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Opening slide extends down sharply. The 2793.00 opening print is also this morning's bias-down target. Exceeding it through 10:15 renews the bias-down signal. Some support along the way lies at 2788.00, but the renewed bias-down target is essentially 2781.00. Which was already met. Quickly falling out of the open soon entered a choppy 5-6 point range around 2788.00. It resolved down to 2778.25. The renewed bias-down target was essentially being tested at 10:15 to avoid doubly-renewing the bias-down signal. Regardless, this is still a bias-down environment. A bounce has room to 2787.50 (being tested now by 5 ticks) whose recovery would start to signal a bigger recovery underway. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the low require a retest, which would be signaled underway back under 2782.00. Extending the decline would next target 2764.00.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2784.50 2784.75 ...would target 2790.50 2790.75 Bias-down: under 2773.00 2773.50 ...would target 2764.25 2764.75 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Fresh lows into the afternoon. Support under this morning's renewed 2781.00 bias-down target was chipped away to enter the noon hour at 2722.50. A slightly lower low and a bounce back up to 2781.00 didn't ended the decline. Being a Friday, the morning's bias-down tends to persist through the noon hour anyway. Now this afternoon has triggered a noN-bias environment. The 2773.50 bias-down signal isn't required to define the window's low -- in fact, fresh lows are already testing 2770.00. And no requirement to test the 2764.75 bias-down target, although that's still likely since 2781.00 didn't hold. Back above 2778.00 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway, regardless of the outstanding attraction below. And nothing about today's decline is (yet) suggesting the two-week old correction has ended.

Friday's 2793.00 open did what Thursday's open and close did not. Opening or closing there Thursday could have started reversing the two-week old correction. Delaying its test allowed a position of strength to form at the rally's highs, to help recover from backing-and-filling. Which there was. The backing-and-filling could also be considered a pullback, or even downtrending -- at least, downtrending within the context of a pullback. Regardless, it would have been done already if the open had held its test of 2793.00. But it didn't, putting into play 2781.00 and potentially 2764.00. Both were met (to within 2 ticks). The likely bottom there developed quickly, if not also 2 ticks short of thoroughly fulfilling its downside potential. The bias environment exit reversed up to within 2 points short of the 2793.00 open. Its resistance pushed back down to 2781.00 at the cash session close on the way down to 2776.50. Two consecutive sessions spent exclusively in negative territory may have ended a corrective dip. Fresh lows immediately Monday could extend down, but the burden of proof would be on sellers. We'll discuss the possible paths and their likely behaviors this weekend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US FOR SATURDAY REVIEW AT 9:30 AM ET.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2787.50 2788.00 ...would target 2795.00 2795.50 Bias-down: under 2774.75 2775.00 ...would target 2767.75 2768.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.