Real Time Day Trading Signals - 11-30-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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Through the prior close... The traditional post-Thanksgiving early close started by dipping. But holding the 2084.50 bias-down signal's test put into play an offsetting test of the 2090.00 bias-up signal. The upside objective was fulfilled, but only probed briefly, as volume was evaporating into the early close. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open dipped initially to attack 2084.50. Extremely narrow ranging broke lower at Europe's opens to attack 2082.00. That was recovered almost as quickly on Chinese intervention, and then some, back up through Friday's high to 2092.00. that extended to a fresh high attacking 2094.00. Its reaction is attacking 2090.o0 as support. If, then... Last week was greeted by the vulnerability to a correction, based on upside objectives being met and timing ahead of the holiday. A correction did develop, both by price dipping and by not yet resuming the rally. Timing and price influences are no longer corrective -- at least, the door is open to resuming the rally, which doesn't require anymore delay or backing-and-filling. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2091.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2094.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2094.75 would be likely tor trigger the 2094.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Overnight rally slides into and out of the open. Fresh highs were probed up to 2095.00, which is 1 point above this morning's bias-up signal. But the open was greeted at 2091.00, and its break has extended down to 2083.25. That's more than 1 point under the bias-down signal. The 2084.50 bias-down signal was still being overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It's being somewhat recovered at 10:30. This is a "late no-bias" environment. An offsetting test of the 2094.00 bias-up signal is in-play.  Late signals are less reliable, and I wasn't bearish coming into the session, but I would be much more bullish back above 2090.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2089.50 2088.00 ...would target  2095.25  2094.00 Bias-down: under  2080.25  2079.00 ...would target  2074.00 2072.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Not yet too late to be scraping the lows. There was no middle ground. Exiting the bias environment under 2088.00 meant exiting the bias environment at new lows. So, new lows were probed down to 2080.25 just before noon. The noon hour ranged narrowly. The next lower objective has been met structurally, by retesting the 2082.25 overnight low. The next lower price objective is 2079.00. It's in-play, unless the bias environment were exited above 2086.00 and 2088.00. And now 2086.00 is being pierced. But not yet up to 2088.00. Back under 2084.50 and 2082.75 would be likely also to test 2079.00. Its test isn't required, and can be avoided altogether. But delaying its test until too late probably wouldn't avoid a deeper pullback.

Monday afternoon bounce to its 2088.00 resistance had expended as much buying pressure as was possible without gaining traction for the effort. Entering the final hour any higher would have resumed the rally, but 2088.00 pushed back to make 2079.00 likely. Starting that downleg from so high and so late made it difficult to continue attracting new sellers at 2079.00 so near the close. So the last half-hour bounced from 2079.00. Rallying was likely to resume Monday. If not at the open, then through the close. And if not through the close, then by proxy of gapping up at Tuesday's open. Monday's late bounce still had time to extend above 2084.50 but didn't. Its reaction down did hold 1079.00. Gapping up Tuesday to and through 2086.00-2088.00 is very likely if the rally has resumed anyway. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjhyfh

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TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2087.25 2086.00 ...would target  2083.00  2091.75 Bias-down: under  2080.25  2079.00 ...would target 2073.75  2072.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.