Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Weekend developments had triggered Sunday night's gap down back to Friday's 3220.25 opening low, and its extension to attack Thursday night's low to within 2 points at 3209.00. But Monday's opening test of 3214.50 created a buy signal that triggered immediately back above 3219.00. Sellers were weak-handed. The durable rally that was expected of the setup extended higher relentlessly intraday. Its late surge up to 3249.50 finally reacted down 7 points into the futures close. Still overlapping Friday's high at Monday's 3246.50 close prevented putting into play the complete retracement back to last week's 3263.50 high, and no hold-long was compelling. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Initially drifting flat-to-lower after the close, had soon surged back up to and through Monday's late high to 3253.50 by midnight. Price action into midnight took an opposite sentiment, retracing Monday's last-minute dip to 3243.00 ahead of Europe's opens. That quickly recovered to another fresh high at 3254.50, also temporarily as its reaction is back down to attack the earlier 3243.00 low. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Monday afternoon buyers gained no traction for their efforts, so resuming the rally Tuesday without delay requires gapping up. So far overnight, two probes of fresh highs have reacted back down into the range instead of extending. Gapping down Tuesday would be vulnerable to extending down further, if not also likely, but not required. And waiting until 60-90 minutes pre-open to break lower would also be unlikely to extend down. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3243.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3239.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3250.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3251.75 bias-up signal.

Bearish Globex-flip. 2-3 overnight probes above yesterday's high was more than enough for their rejection to begin forming a bearish Globex-flip. The setup is triggered by then exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility under the earlier Globex low. That was 3241.75, and the open gapped down to its 3239.75 bias-down signal. 3241.75 had to hold as resistance once the Globex-flip setup had outlasted the open. And it held a blip-up to produce fresh lows down to 3231.75. Remember that. Meanwhile, another bounce up to 3240.75 came too late to invalidate the 3239.75 bias-down signal. This is a bias-down environment, in addition to triggering a bearish Globex-flip. Bounces should fail and supports should break. Already having come within 3 ticks of the 3231.00 bias-down target, it won't become "unfinished business" if left outstanding at 11:30. But its test is meanwhile likely.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3244.25 3244.00 ...would target 3250.75 3250.50 Bias-down: under 3236.75 3236.75 ...would target 3231.00 3231.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Volatility has disappeared. Despite triggering the bearish Globex-flip, the open's drop to 3231.75 was retraced back up to 3244.75. The gap was filled back to yesterday's 3243.50 futures close, and its reaction attacked 3236.00 into the noon hour. But only 3236.00, and not fresh lows that the Globex-flip usually produces. The low had attacked the 3231.00 bias-down target to within 3 ticks, precluding it from becoming "unfinished business." Its test is still likelier than not, so long as no bounce is gaining traction. And no bounce is gaining traction. The afternoon no-bias environment will be free to resolve in either direction, or to range sideways. Not gapping up was unlikely to rally today before the afternoon bias environment exit. The 3236.00 afternoon bias-down signal being likely to define the window's lower-end if tested, but its break would still be credible for probing fresh session lows.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: As you know, I'm aware of the Adobe Connect recording playback issues since they launched their new browser-based system. It stinks, they know it stinks, and have no ETA for its resolution. [This applies only to recordings, not to live chaRTroom attendance.]

We'll be testing new platforms soon. Meanwhile, the original application still plays the recordings flawlessly. So, manually open the Adobe Connect program on your computer (installation links for Windows or Mac), and then paste the recording's link there.

Not gapping up Tuesday was already unlikely to rally intraday. Trending down wasn't necessarily the alternative, but a vulnerability if not also a likelihood. Probes above Monday's 3249.50 high to 3254.50 had failed to produce a gap up. Combining the failed overnight probes with opening under the 3241.75 earlier Globex low had formed a bearish Globex-flip. The Globex-flip is most reliable when it appears in the context of multi-session trending, which Tuesday was not. The open's drop to 3231.75 was the session low. Nevertheless, no rally caught traction Tuesday as all bounces failed, and negative territory was maintained throughout. A late downleg extended to fresh afternoon lows at 3234.00. [Post-close plunge to 3226.00.*] Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction, so trending Wednesday morning depends largely on gapping open sufficiently. If Tuesday's weakness can serve as only a correction of Monday's intraday recovery, then its backing-and-filling would be likely to resolve in another upleg. So, an overnight recovery attempt would be credible for resuming the rally to new highs. More post-open weakness Wednesday would suggest at least testing last week's lows. [*A post-close plunge to 3226.00 doesn't alter the potential for resolving up, but still relies on gapping up. Not recovering the plunge would still target a retest of last week's lows.] See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here... *Manually open the Adobe Connect program on your computer (installation links for Windows or Mac), and then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3242.25 3242.00 ...would target 3249.25 3249.00 Bias-down: under 3233.00 3233.00 ...would target 3227.25 3227.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

About that post-close 8-point "plunge" down to 3228.00 that I mentioned in the Market Wrap... An actual plunge 5-1/2 times larger down to 3181.00 was triggered by news that Iran has fired missiles at a U.S. base in Iraq Any further weakness would be likely to retest last week's lows, and a retest of last week's lows would likely target 4-week old "lower prior highs" at 3175.00-3180.00. The current low has responded to a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement at 3181.75, now attacking 3199.00. From Tuesday's close, the Dow was down 460 points, Gold was $40 higher, Silver 50 cents higher, Crude Oil was up $3, and the 30-year Treasury was up 2 points. [UPDATE: Also, Bitcoin is attacking my first target at 8,455.] There seems to be preparation for President Trump to address the nation tonight. [UPDATE: That is now unclear.] Previously he warned Iran that their retaliation would trigger a more substantial and immediate response. Monitor the market in the chaRTroom here.