Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Today brings PPI, Retail Sales, two pre-open Fed speakers, and more. Overnight action has been ranging narrowly sideways since BOJ's overnight actions triggered a 30-point spike from 4000-4030 that immediately resumed ranging narrowly -- still within yesterday's range. Optimism isn't extreme ahead of the headlines, but a reaction either way would be credible.
New price points : A reaction either way, indeed. PPI/Retails Sales headlines snapped up to the 4033 bias-up target and back down. Triggering bias-up after retesting the target was invalidated by a collapse that was only beginning to get underway at 10:30, but ultimately entered the noon hour under both bias-down parameters to invalidate its late reversal. Now the noon hour is entered at 3974 with RSIs for the first time NOT simultaneously oversold.
Catalysts : DOJ Crypto action, 1/2-point hike still on the table, Earnings underway, PPI / Retail Sales, BOJ, US Debt Ceiling debate.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : BIAS PENDING... 5-Stage Pattern.
Their influences : The morning collapse eventually formed a Falling Wedge that was entered and exited aggressively to form a the first 3 stages of a 5-stage pattern. Stage-4's trough is a little delayed to be optimal, which might be a function of noon's DOJ headlines coming. Ignoring a stage-5 bounce can extend the collapse by multiples of the first 3 stages.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Probes above 4008 aren't gaining traction but reactions below it have yet to reverse the trend down. This is likely sellers' last opportunity to launch a downleg -- not only for the chart action's sake, but also with the opportunity to dash the 1/4-point rate hike hopes that had fueled the rally. A bounce can be absorbed if it doesn't trigger bias-up.
Alternative : Multiple sessions of fluctuating around 4008 open the door to a more substantial correction than only one morning.
Levels : UP: 4033, 4056, ...4121… DOWN: 3999, 3966, 3948-53, 3914.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Today's price points :
Today brings PPI, Retail Sales, two pre-open Fed speakers, and more. Overnight action has been ranging narrowly sideways since BOJ's overnight actions triggered a 30-point spike from 4000-4030 that immediately resumed ranging narrowly -- still within yesterday's range. PPI/Retails Sales headlines snapped up to the 4033 bias-up target and back down. Triggering bias-up after retesting the target was invalidated by a collapse that was only beginning to get underway at 10:30, but ultimately entered the noon hour under both bias-down parameters to invalidate its late reversal. Rejecting a fulfilled bias can be very bearish because it suggests substantial countertrend sponsorship coming around the corner. And Wed's reversal extended to 3944.
Catalysts : 1/2-point hike still on the table, Earnings underway, US Debt Ceiling debate.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns :  5-Stage Pattern.
Their influences : Wed morning's collapse eventually formed a Falling Wedge that was entered and exited aggressively to form a the first 3 stages of a 5-stage pattern. Stage-4's trough never developed, which meant substantial follow-through was likely.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise :  Probes above 4008 weren't gaining traction but reactions below it had yet to reverse the trend down. This was sellers' last opportunity to launch a downleg, at least to find stronger-handed buyers at lower levels e.g. 3925 to sponsor the next upleg.
Alternative : Already being so close to the optimal 3925 pullback objective makes slow-playing the decline likely. Bouncing into Thu's open could extend briefly before reversing down more gradually. A bigger bounce would still find significant resistance around 4000.
Levels : UP: 4033, 4056, ...4121… DOWN: 3999, 3966, 3948-53, 3914.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

THU A.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3953, targeting 3966.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3937, targeting 3924.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.