Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Entering the weekend with Fri's strong rally exited the weekend with narrow ranging around 3988 unchanged. Pre-open econ headlines resumed the rally, essentially doubling Fri's performance. The afternoon's 4057 high held the no-bias window's resistance, then collapsed to 4016-4019 lower prior highs support. The final hour bounced to 4040.
Overnight price points : A narrow 8-point range up to 4040 began resolving down after Europe's opens, now testing and retesting the bias-down signal by 3 points down to 4023 while RSIs deteriorate.
Catalysts : DOJ-GOOGL, Earnings ongoing / MSFT post-close, Debt ceiling, Fed-heads blackout.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Stalled rally's reward.
Their influences : Mon probed the stalled rally's 4033-4035 highs during two consecutive timing windows, which fulfills the minimum reward for completing the interim correction to 3901-3925. Two consecutive sessions is a more common reward.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : The overnight dip is almost attacking Mon afternoon's test of 4016-4019 lower prior highs. That test hasn't (yet) produced fresh recovery highs, so the bullish template allows for its very brief and isolated retest -- preferably during the open -- for its rubber band stretch to snap back up. Alternatively, already recovering yesterday's late 4036 buy signal through the open could resume its late bounce and extend to fresh recovery highs at 4074 or 4085.
Alternative : Tech earnings begin post-close with MSFT, which could inspire last-minute optimism if that's what inspired the Fri-Mon surge. That would leave it to this morning for defensive posturing to develop a deeper correction back under 4016-4019, potentially down to 3970 and lower.
Levels : UP: 4055, 4074, 4092… DOWN: 4012, 3988, 3963.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : A narrow 8-point range up to 4040 began resolving down after Europe's opens, testing and retesting the 4026 bias-down signal while RSIs deteriorated.
New price points : Breaking lower to yesterday afternoon's 4017 low probed lower and lower through the open to 4009 and 4005, while interim reactions tested and retested 4030. Now those higher are being probed up to 4037.
Catalysts : DOJ-GOOGL, Earnings ongoing / MSFT post-close, Debt ceiling, Fed-heads blackout.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET... Opening Thrust.
Their influences : The open's likely retest of 4016-4019 was ongoing at 9:45 to neither isolate nor break its support. The setup's next two checkpoints at 10:00 and 10:30 were testing the support's lower-end and upper-end, respectively -- but in no case maintaining its break.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Bias-down will usually retest its already met target, but not necessarily. Considering the Opening Thrust's inability to gain traction under the 4016-4019 lower prior highs retest, I gave a buy signal a benefit of the doubt to test 4033-4035 -- which is now being probed up to 4037. Retracing the bias-down signal would be moot if the noon hour is entered above the 4044 bias-up signal, which could then extend to fresh recovery highs at 4074 or 4085.
Alternative : Anxiousness ahead of MSFT's post-close earnings is unlikely unless the morning is too optimistic. The open certainly wasn't, but now a bias-down bounce may be weak-handed and vulnerable to retracing the 4026 bias-down signal.
Levels : UP: 4055, 4074, 4092… DOWN: 4012, 3988, 3963.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

TUE P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4037, targeting 4048.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4021, targeting 4010.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.