Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's bias-down environment began lapsing at its 1897.50 bias-down signal, and immediately launched a rally into the noon hour's 1910.00 high. A pre-FOMC pullback to 1899.50 tried recovering. But its 10-point knee-jerk reaction up was reversed back down to test 1887.50. That soon extended much lower to 1865.00, ranging around 1873.00-1874.75 through the close. Overnight action's new info... Quite the round trip. Holding 1873.00-1874.75 had created bounce potential up to 1982.00, which was fulfilled soon after the Globex open. Its reaction attacked 1966.00, and then rallied through Europe's opens to attack 1896.00. Dipping from there fell back to 1882.00. And now plunging from there is testing 1873.00-1874.75. If, then... Yesterday afternoon's decline had gained traction that made it likely to extend lower this morning, but we discussed two reasons to anticipate its rejection. Confidence in the rejection depends at least upon recovering 1882.00 and 1887.50, which would put 1913.00 back in-play. But fulfilling yesterday's late 1882.00 bounce has allowed another downleg to 1859.50... and that has become likelier with the drop back to 1873.00-1874.75. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1874.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 1882.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1885.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Overshadowing the choppy overnight range. The pre-open surge to 1902.00 had retraced to greet the open at 1892.00. Rather than improve, the gap up narrowed to test 1887.50. Reacting up couldn't get past the opening range before headlines triggered a deeper drop.

And having rejected tests of both bias-up parameters, offsetting tests of the bias-down parameters were put into play.

The rejection came late, as still overlapping the 1882.00 bias-up signal at 10:15 invoked the grace period. Only the 1869.25 bias-down signal's test is required. The 1862.75 bias-down target's test won't become "unfinished business below" if left outstanding.

And it might be left outstanding. The bias-down signal was tested down to 1866.00. Filling the gap back to yesterday's close and testing the overnight low has reacted up to within 6 ticks of 1887.50. Back under 1879.25 would start to signal the bounce had failed. But exiting the bias environment back above its 1887.50 bias-up target could resume the overnight recovery -- recoveries -- this time without hesitation before testing 1913.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1894.50 1887.50 ...would target  1899.75  1893.00 Bias-down: under  1875.00  1868.25 ...would target 1869.75  1862.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Narrowing into late-afternoon. This afternoon's 1987.50 bias-up signal was probed during the noon hour up to 1992.00 resistance. Reacting down to 1878.00 avoided triggering bias-up. This is a no-bias environment. A bounce back to 1987.50 has held. A brief reaction down is now trying recovering. Extending higher would be credible when the bias environment comes within view of lapsing at 2:15-2:20. Exiting the bias environment in rally mode would target a probe above yesterday's 1910.00 high to test 1913.00. That leg should be relentless, but not necessarily steep. Otherwise, not rallying out of the bias environment would be vulnerable to probing back into negative territory.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1900.50 1893.50 ...would target  1905.25  1898.50 Bias-down: under  1887.25  1880.50 ...would target 1881.75  1874.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Perhaps Thursday afternoon was paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of AMZN's post-close earnings. The range formed an Ascending triangle between 1878.00-1892.00. The range's lower-end was attacked suddenly after the cash session close when AMZN announced a big miss that pummeled its stock. All of which would be bullish. Broader markets don't react durably to an individual stock. Thursday afternoon's selling pressure has already been expended in inhibiting higher highs. Less was available to react any deeper on the actual news. So, potential remains alive for probing above Wednesday's highs to test 1910.00 -- alive, if not necessarily in-play, and if vulnerable to reacting down sharply when that test is done. Probing lower first, anyway, would still have a recovery path available. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.