Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's 7-point gap up to 1894.50 extended back to and through Wednesday's 1910.00 high to fulfill the corrective rally's 1913.00 attraction by noon. That was extended through the afternoon's bias environment exit to fulfill potential up to 1924.00. The position-squaring window ended with a surge up to 1933.00. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's firm open only attacked Friday's high before drifting back down to 1922.50. Ranging back up to 1830.00 resolved down through Europe's opens down to 1917.50. Another bounce's failure is now probing fresh lows down to 1916.50. If, then... Despite producing a breakout close above resistance, the rally has gotten suspicious. Friday afternoon's buyers didn't gain traction through relevant timing windows. The first close above a multi-session range was a breakout, but Friday breakouts often aren't confirmed by a second consecutive higher close on Mondays. And Friday's close above 1924.00 was produced by a leg that originated too late to be reliable. Not holding 1913.00 would undermine the interim extension to 1924.00, if not also reverse the recovery. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1924.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1922.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1919.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 1913.00 would be unlikely to recover the 1916.50 bias-down target in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.

Post-open probes under support recover. The overnight drop had attacked 1913.00 to within 3 ticks. Bouncing into and out of the open tested the 1922.00 bias-down signal as resistance. So, the gap down had avoided 1913.00. The opening 15 minutes of volatility had held two tests of Friday afternoon's bias environment low. A durable reversal down wasn't credible. But fresh lows remained possible if buyers weren't regaining control. And buyers weren't regaining control. Several econ reports helped that bounce resolve down to fresh lows testing 1913.00. Another bounce tested the post-open high and the 1922.00 bias-down signal, which held again. Triggering late bias-down, whose target has been met, only requires the morning's upper-end to be defined by the 1922.00 bias-down signal. Meanwhile, attacking or probing the lows is possible down to 1914.00 or 1911.50, but not required.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1938.25 1931.50 ...would target  1943.75  1937.00 Bias-down: under  1924.25  1917.50 ...would target 1918.25  1911.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Price keeps returning to relevant support. This morning' s 1922.00 bias-down signal held the open's bounce, then it held the recovery from fresh lows. Probing above it came after triggering bias-down. Probes above 1922.00 were retraced as the bias-down signal defined the bias-down environment's upper-end. Those probes got to 1924.00, 1926.00 and almost 1929.00. Each probe was retraced to 1922.00 -- and lower during the noon hour, attacking 1918.00. All while still ranging around 1922.00. Attacking this morning's lows would likely extend back into last week's range under 1909.00. The afternoon's no-bias environment could otherwise bounce to test its 1931.50 bias-up signal without trending.

Not for lack of trying... Friday's breakout close wasn't likely to be confirmed after Monday's open gapped down. Despite not trending down through the morning, a durable rally wasn't likely to resume. The afternoon did rally, and it did probe Friday's 1933.00 high up to 1940.00. But the close was overlapping 1933.00 instead of confirming its breakout. Closing above 1924.00 was repeated, but not confirmed, so 1946.25 isn't in-play. That doesn't prevent its test anyway, which would have been likely also to visit 1969.00, just not so much now. Monday's 1912.50 low stopped optimistically short of touching last week's "lower prior highs." A bounce is still likely from their test, but albeit less likely for the bounce to resume Friday's breakout. For gaining traction, Monday afternoon's buyers are likely to be rewarded with probing fresh highs Tuesday morning. That would be inverted by immediately breaking back under Monday's 1922.50 prior lows. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1944.75 1938.00 ...would target  1949.50  1943.00 Bias-down: under  1927.50  1921.00 ...would target 1922.25  1915.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.